LEBANON: MURR CONCERNED ABOUT HARIRI IN ELECTIONS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 BEIRUT 001677

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S HOOK, PDAS WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER/GERMAIN
NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: MURR CONCERNED ABOUT HARIRI IN ELECTIONS,
SAYS SECURITY ON TRACK

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Defense Minister Elias Murr, in a November 21 meeting
with visiting CENTCOM J2 Brigadier General Stephen Fogarty,
visiting NEA ELA Officer Director Nicole Shampaine, and the
Ambassador, said he would travel to Damascus as soon as
border cooperation, missing Lebanese soldiers, and the
transfer to Lebanese custody of certain terrorist suspects
were placed on an official agenda. Murr said President
Sleiman, expecting peace talks with Lebanon, Syria, and
Israel by 2010, had discussed with him the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs portfolio in the next cabinet in the event
that the idea of indirect or direct Lebanese-Israeli talks
moved ahead. He noted Sleiman would avoid accepting military
equipment "gifts" from Iran during his November 24 visit to
Tehran. Murr claimed low expectations for his own upcoming
trip to Moscow.


2. (C) On extremists in Lebanon, Murr assessed that during
the past two weeks, the LAF had finished "90 percent of the
job" against extremists in northern Lebanon. Murr also said
Sunni leader Saad Hariri's Future Movement followers had been
involved in the November 21 violence at an LAF checkpoint in
Tripoli. Murr expressed concern about the Syrian-supported
al-Saiqa faction in the Beddawi camp, but assessed the Ain el
Hilweh Palestinian camp near Sidon would remain calm.


3. (C) Regarding election security, Murr was confident the
LAF could handle skirmishes on election day. He opined the
real test would be the 48 hours after the election, as the
results were being announced. Murr expressed strong
annoyance at Hariri's lack of election preparation efforts.
He called it "unforgivable" if Hariri were to lose in Sunni
areas that could be easily won. For the first time, we heard
Murr use the term "my bloc" rather than "my father's bloc" in
discussing local politics. Murr assesses he and his
political allies in the Metn and other Christian areas would
be able to win twelve seats in 2009 elections, enough to give
the forces aligned with March 14 a new majority if Hariri
takes care of the Sunni vote. End Summary.

AGENDA DELAYS SYRIA VISIT
--------------


4. (C) Defense Minister Murr, in a November 21 meeting with
visiting CENTCOM J2 Brigadier General Stephen Fogarty,
visiting NEA/ELA Office Director Nicole Shampaine, and the
Ambassador, said he would travel to Syria to meet his Defense
Minister counterpart once an agenda was settled. However,
Murr noted the agenda must include issues of border
cooperation, missing Lebanese soldiers, and the transfer to
the Lebanese Defense Ministry of certain terrorist suspects
held in Syrian jails. Murr said he would require the agenda
statement to be published in the interest of transparency.
He also noted he would travel to Damascus because he deemed
cooperation between the two countries as important to his
portfolio, particularly on border security. Murr said he
would brief UNSCOL Michael Williams on any aspect of UNSCR
1701 or border issues. He suspects a Syrian hand behind the
2005 assassination attempt against him and still refuses to
visit Damascus in a personal capacity.

MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS?
--------------


5. (C) On the indirect talks between Syria and Israel, Murr
assessed U.S. involvement would benefit Lebanon. Murr opined
Syrian President Asad needed peace negotiations with Israel
in order to rebuild trust with the United States. He said
that President Sleiman, preparing for possible engagement by
the new U.S. administration in regional peace efforts, had
asked him to consider being Foreign Minister, a position
currently occupied by a Shia, Fawzi Salloukh, in the next
cabinet. Murr said he had told Sleiman that if peace talks
appear likely, and a Shia is placed at the head the Defense
Ministry, he would accept the role. Sleiman has requested

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Murr's presence on several of his recent international trips
to enable Murr to form contacts with non-defense officials
abroad, in preparation, Murr said, for a possible MFA spot.
Murr said Sleiman, who has a "cautious" attitude towards
Syria, expects talks among Syria, Israel, and Lebanon will be
underway by 2010. The Ambassador expressed interest that
President Sleiman was planning for the future and with regard
to such talks, direct or indirect, with Israel but also noted
the value the U.S. places on the Minister of Defense
position, where close cooperation between the U.S. and
Lebanon mandate a strong and trusted ally.

LOW EXPECTATIONS FOR RUSSIA VISIT
--------------


6. (C) Murr said he will travel on his first official visit
to Moscow -- postponed since 2005 because of events in
Lebanon -- following a December 12 trip to Bahrain, for the
International Institute for Strategic Studies conference and
a meeting with SecDef Gates. Murr described Sunni leader
Saad Hariri as "a little bit excited" about potentially
upgrading Lebanon's Russian-issued military equipment. (Note:
Hariri traveled to Moscow in early November and discussed
Russian military aid to the LAF. End Note.) Murr said he
expected nothing will come of the visit. According to Murr,
LAF Commander Jean Kahwaji said that arms from Russia are
"the last of his concerns," expressing preference for
equipment and upgrades from the U.S. Murr said he understood
the sensitivities regarding potential Iranian and Russian
military assistance to Lebanon and expressed gratitude and
pride in the U.S.-aided improvements to the LAF.

STRONG STANCE AGAINST IRANIAN
MILITARY AID FOR LAF
--------------


7. (C) Murr described his close coordination with President
Sleiman on how to avoid accepting a "gift" of military aid
for the LAF during Sleiman's trip to Iran, which began
November 24. Murr told Sleiman to cite the need for
consultations with the Minister of Defense and the rest of
the cabinet before agreeing to any package of military
assistance from Tehran. Regarding larger strategic issues,
Murr recommended Sleiman refuse such aid and to blame the UN;
Murr suggested the President express concern about Iran's
problems with the UN and fear that Lebanon would inherit
these problems through strategic alliances with the country.


8. (C) According to Murr, Iranian President Ahmadinejad
wanted to issue a joint statement during Sleiman's visit.
Murr advised Sleiman to avoid doing so. Murr also said
Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon Reza Shibani paid him a visit
regarding Sleiman's trip to Iran. Murr noted this was the
first time he received Shibani, despite Shibani's three
previous requests, because of Murr's suspicions that
assassinated Hizballah terrorist mastermind Imad Mugniyeh was
involved in the 2005 attack against Murr. Murr said that
Shibani, probing why Murr was not accompanying Sleiman to
Iran, asked if Murr was not interested in "having all the
LAF's needs met." Murr, in response, suggested Iran instruct
Hizballah to turn over its rockets to the army. Murr
reportedly told Shibani that the best way for Iran to help
the LAF would be to disarm Hizballah.

FRANCE FULFILLING ITS GAZELLE CONTRACT
--------------


9. (C) Regarding November 21 press reports on French
equipment for Lebanon's Gazelle helicopters, Murr said that
France is equipping eleven Gazelles with rockets and GPS
equipment to fulfill a contract agreed upon during the
fighting last summer between Fatah al-Islam and the Lebanese
Armed Forces in the Nahr al-Bared Palestinian camp. The UAE
donated the helicopters to Lebanon and contracted the French
to equip the gazelles but the French, who Murr said were
concerned their efforts to fight terrorists in Lebanon would
unleash terrorism at home, had not yet completed their side
of the agreement. Murr said he had refused to receive the
French ambassador since last summer because of France's
failure to provide this equipment.

BEIRUT 00001677 003 OF 005



"90 PERCENT" FINISHED WITH
TERRORISTS IN NORTH
--------------


10. (C) Worryingly, Murr noted the men involved in the
November 21 violence at an LAF checkpoint in Tripoli were
members of Saad Hariri's Future Movement. The man killed --
identified in November 22 press reports as Ahmad al-Zohbi --
was the regional Future Movement head and opened fire on the
LAF checkpoint, according to Murr. Murr feared that
extremists groups were indirectly engaging Future Movement
members against the LAF without Hariri's knowledge. Murr,
explaining the LAF's strong response during the original
checkpoint breach and actions after, said he had instructed
LAF Commander Jean Kahwaji to "do his job" against northern
extremists. Murr said he planned to talk to Hariri about
Future Movement's involvement in the incident.


11. (C) Defense Minister Murr expressed satisfaction with
recent arrests of suspected terrorist operatives in northern
Lebanon, saying the LAF during the past two weeks had
finished "90 percent of the job" in the north. Murr assessed
that while there were many extremists in the region, few of
them are affiliated with Al Qaeda. He found little alarming
information in the interrogation reports of recently-arrested
suspects and described as a "Spielberg scenario" the claims
of an Al Qaeda base in northern Lebanon. Murr said Prime
Minister Siniora should work to improve living conditions in
the region to combat what Murr sees as the main causes of
extremism: extreme poverty, unemployment, and lack of
infrastructure.


12. (C) Murr said the Syrian-backed al-Saiqa faction in the
Beddawi camp is the only group he finds alarming. The group,
numbering around 400 people, controls the camp. Murr said he
is working with the Palestinian group Fatah to arrest and
interrogate a few members of the group to show Syria that "we
know what they're doing."

AIN EL HILWEH "WILL NEVER BE
ANOTHER NAHR EL BARID"
--------------


13. (C) Murr described the 70,000-person Ain El Hilweh
Palestinian camp in Sidon as equally divided among Fatah
members, supporters of Syria and Hizballah, and those who
will support anyone for a price. Murr argued that because an
Al Qaeda base in Ain el Hilweh is not in the interests of the
camp refugees, Fatah, Hizballah, or Syria, all sides would
work to prevent its establishment. Murr assessed that the
camp would stay as it is until a larger regional solution is
found. Hizballah and the Syrians can use the camp to target
UNIFIL forces and northern Israel while blaming any attack on
Palestinian groups, said Murr; they are unlikely to cede such
an option without other gains.


14. (C) Ain el Hilweh will "never be another Nahr el Barid"
because of its direct links to Sidon, he continued. The camp
intersects many parts of the city and any problem in Ain el
Hilweh would close access to Sidon, prompting quick efforts
to calm the situation. Additionally, prominent politicians
from Sidon, including Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, Prime
Minister Siniora, and Minister of Education Bahia Hariri are
invested in protecting their city from LAF measures against
any disturbances in the camp. Murr said he had warned them
he would "erase" the camp in the case of an outbreak of
violence. Murr said he received "a 100 phone calls,"
including from Saad and Bahia Hariri and the Prime Minister,
when the LAF started operations against the camp last summer;
the situation was quiet within two hours. On the other hand,
all politicians supported the fight against extremists in
Nahr al-Barid during the same time. Murr also noted the
close social and familial links between the Palestinian
refugees in Ain el Hilweh and residents of Sidon would keep
the situation under control.

WORRIED MORE ABOUT THE DAY
AFTER ELECTIONS
--------------

BEIRUT 00001677 004 OF 005




15. (C) Responding to a question from the Ambassador on
security for the upcoming parliamentary elections, Murr said
he expected troubles but was taking steps now to prepare the
LAF; Murr plans to distribute to the army his program for
security on November 24. Murr said violence was likely in
northern Lebanon between Sunnis and Alawites and between
Sunnis and Shia in small cohabited villages and Beirut. The
first two instances would be easier to contain than clashes
in Beirut, which would require the LAF to adapt techniques to
the urban environment. Murr plans to instruct the LAF to
arrest anyone causing trouble -- starting "from now.


16. (C) Murr said the LAF will temporarily assume control of
the Internal Security Forces (ISF) on election day. (Note:
This is an extraordinary measure as electoral rules stipulate
the Interior Minister assumes authority of the LAF on
election day. End Note.) The ISF will provide security in
rooms where ballots are cast and the LAF -- forbidden from
being present in voting rooms -- will protect the perimeters.
The LAF will allow only one person at a time into the voting
place; Murr said Interior Minister Ziad Baroud would extend
the voting hours by two hours to account for expected delays.
Soldiers will be deployed on all roads on election day to
discourage skirmishes.


17. (C) Murr claimed overall confidence for security during
elections but described the 48 hours following the closing of
polling stations as the most dangerous. He said if Hizballah
and Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun lose, "there will
be big problems." Murr was pleased with his staff, including
LAF Commander Kahwaji's motivation to maintain strict
security during elections. He described tough security as
the only way to deal with Hizballah and the Shia, who he
claimed would not fight the LAF because "they would lose
everything."

UNHAPPY WITH "YOUNG BOYS
PLAYING IN QOREITEM"
--------------


18. (C) Noting his family's extensive experience in counting
votes and gauging elections, Murr said he and his independent
political allies would win twelve seats in the 2009
parliamentary elections in Metn and elsewhere. Murr's bloc
would give the majority to the Hariri-led March 14 coalition
assuming Hariri wins the Sunni vote, Murr said. He described
the Sunni vote as "Saad's to lose" but was strongly critical
about Hariri's efforts, or lack thereof, to solidify support.
Murr said he was "scared" about Hariri's lack of motivation
for elections and expressed frustration that he is fighting a
battle in the Christian districts to help the coalition while
Hariri may lose an "easy" vote within the Sunni population.
Murr said he told Hariri that Murr "could not afford to
indirectly lose" because of the Sunni leader. Hariri needed
to choose if he wanted to "fly, and play," as it was his
right, but Murr argued it was his right to know Hariri's
decision.


19. (C) Murr asked the Ambassador to put pressure on Hariri
and said he plans to ask Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon
Abdulaziz Khoja, in their upcoming November 25 meeting, to
"tell the little boy to work." Murr stressed that Hariri
needs to meet with the other Sunni leaders to prepare for
elections; former Prime Minister and Sunni leader Najib
Mikati had already complained to Murr about Hariri's
unwillingness to meet him. Hariri needed to do more to reach
out to both Mikati and fellow Tripoli leader Mohammed Safadi
(Minister of Economy and Commerce). Tashnaq representatives
have also expressed their annoyance with Hariri to Murr.

COMMENT
--------------


20. (C) In a subsequent November 24 conversation with Murr,
he told us that he believed President Sleiman would play "a
more overt role" with the independents beginning in February.
"We have two positions," said Murr, "to win or to win."
Significantly, for the first time in a conversation with us,
Murr used the term "my bloc" rather than "my father's bloc"

BEIRUT 00001677 005 OF 005


when discussing Metn politics. End comment.

SISON