LEBANON: MARCH 14: HIGH HOPES FOR SPECIAL TRIBUNAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000167 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/03/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PARM PHUM SY LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: MARCH 14: HIGH HOPES FOR SPECIAL TRIBUNAL REF: STATE 10786 BEIRUT 00000167 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: CDA William Grant for Reasons: Section 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) March 14 leaders have stepped up their own lobbying efforts recently to convince key countries to contribute to the Special Tribunal, reportedly securing commitments from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, and Russia. Many view the Tribunal as the primary -- if not only -- vehicle for ending Syrian interference in Lebanon. Despite continuing pressure, the GOL does not intend to release the four generals detained in connection with the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, leaving it up to the Tribunal to determine their fate. End summary. TURNING UP THE PRESSURE FOR CONTRIBUTIONS -------------- ¶2. (C) Telecom Minister Marwan Hamadeh told Charge and Pol/Econ Chief during a January 31 meeting that Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE each would contribute $7 million to reach the requirements for the first year of the Special Tribunal. Saudi FM Saud al-Faisal had told this to PM Siniora during Siniora's recent visit to Saudi Arabia, and King Abdullah subsequently confirmed it, Hamadeh said. $7 million was "peanuts" to the Saudis, he commented; the reason the Saudis were delaying their contribution was to increase pressure on UN SYG Ban Ki-Moon to reach out to other countries as well. ¶3. (C) In an earlier meeting the same day, Justice Minister Charles Rizk explained the Saudis' delay as the typically slow "Bedouin way," and that the SAG needed to understand the impact the Tribunal would have on the situation in Lebanon. Following the meeting with Hamadeh, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt told Charge and Pol/Econ Chief he was traveling to Saudi Arabia on February 1 to discuss the Tribunal further. ¶4. (C) Jumblatt, who had just returned from Moscow, said President Putin told him Russia would contribute $150,000 to the Tribunal. Though acknowledging that this was not a significant financial contribution, Jumblatt stressed that symbolically it was important given Russia's traditionally close ties to Syria (a view Justice Minister Charles Rizk also expressed). ¶5. (C) Rizk said that, while the UN was looking for financial commitments for three years, "everyone knows" that in reality the Tribunal will take at least six years. Rizk also said he had discussed the possibility of establishing of a private fund with PM Siniora, majority leader Saad Hariri, and Jumblatt. Jumblatt reportedly suggested that the fund begin in Lebanon, though Siniora warned that it should not appear as if the Hariri family were financing it. TRIBUNAL KEY TO CHANGING SYRIAN BEHAVIOR -------------- ¶6. (C) Rizk, single-mindedly focused on the Tribunal as the deus ex machina for Lebanon's political instability, said Lebanon was wasting its time trying to reach agreement on the presidency. The Tribunal was the key to changing the current political scenario, he argued; once Syria recognizes that it is a reality, the SARG will change its behavior. Furthermore, indictments (as opposed to actual convictions) would be enough to rattle Damascus, he claimed. The Syrians were still primitive, he commented, and only responded to direct threats. ¶7. (C/NF) Hamadeh viewed the Tribunal as a "vitamin" the U.S. could provide (in the absence of credible carrots and sticks) to boost Lebanon's "immunity" against Syria. He noted that Syrian press was reporting that the Tribunal was now a higher priority to the U.S. than Lebanon's presidential election. Hamadeh (please protect) further shared a rumor he had heard from UAE FM Abdallah bin Zayid that Bushra Asad, (sister of President Bashar Asad and wife of Syrian Military BEIRUT 00000167 002.2 OF 002 Intelligence Chief Assef Shawkat) was seeking asylum in the UAE. According to bin Zayid, Shawkat, who turns 60 this year, is facing retirement and Bashar does not want to extend his mandate. STATUS OF FOUR DETAINED GENERALS -------------- ¶8. (C) Rizk denied that the GOL would release the four Lebanese generals imprisoned for over two years in connection with the Hariri assassination, despite the constant pressure of human rights groups. It would be UNIIIC Commissioner Bellemare's decision, once he becomes Tribunal Prosecutor, whether to release them, Rizk argued, adding that his advice to the generals' lawyers was to speed up the establishment of the Tribunal so the detainees could have their day in court. Meaning, Judge Antoine Khair ("a brave guy"),the President of Lebanon's Higher Council for Justice, was holding firm, despite efforts to "terrorize" him into releasing the generals, Rizk said. ¶9. (C) Note: Parties on both sides have lobbied Post on this issue. Tom Harb, the President of the World Council of the Cedars Revolution (WCCR),e-mailed Charge a copy of WCCR's January 31 letter to UNSYG Ban Ki-Moon urging the UN not to side with human rights organization that are demanding the generals' immediate release. The Centre Libanais des Droits Humains (CLDH -- Lebanese Center for Human Rights, www.solida.org),meanwhile, emailed a copy of its January 21 communique demanding an end to the "arbitrary detention" of the eight individuals and an independent investigation into GOL human rights violations. Attorneys for the four have requested meetings with COMs in Beirut representing the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. UNIIIC officials have told us in the past that they, too, receive almost daily letters demanding the release, though UNIIIC has refrained from engaging in what it views, at least for the time being, as a matter of Lebanese jurisdiction. End note. COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) The sudden whirlwind of shuttle diplomacy by March 14 leades is part of a new (long overdue) synchronized strtegy to enlist international support and regain the offensive at home. If reports of Arab funding commitments are true, it would seem that initial efforts have borne fruit and March 14 is succeeding in delivering its message abroad. We hope, however, that the majority does not put all its eggs into the Tribunal basket and instead pursues an equally determined campaign at home, where it will need all the support it can muster to win the 2009 legislative elections. End comment. GRANT