LEBANON: UNSCOL SEES MINIMAL PROGRESS ON GHAJAR;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001613 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A/S HOOK, PDAS WARLICK P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER/GERMAIN NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS SY IS LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: UNSCOL SEES MINIMAL PROGRESS ON GHAJAR; OPTIMISM ON ISRAELI-SYRIAN TRACK Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Briefing the Ambassador on his recent trips to Israel and Syria, UN Special Coordinator Michael Williams relayed that Israel will neither accept nor reject UNIFIL's proposal for withdrawal from Ghajar by the November 22 deadline. Williams relayed that Israeli PM Ehud Olmert is focusing all of his energy on the Turkish-led indirect negotiations with Syria, hoping for a deal before a new Israeli government is in place, sometime after its February election. Likewise, Williams shared, Syrian FM Walid Moallem is "equally interested" in a deal with Israel, though Syrian VP Farouk al-Sharaa is reportedly nervous about whether outgoing PM Olmert can deliver. ¶2. (C) Williams said the Syrians deny possessing any maps on Sheba'a Farms, and asserted their belief that Sheba'a belongs to Lebanon. Williams expressed concern that Lebanon be left in the cold if talks move forward between Israel and Syria, with no Lebanese involvement, and agreed to raise the issue with President Michel Sleiman's office. Moallem believes Lebanon and Syria will exchange ambassadors by year's end. Williams reported that the Israelis are looking into providing cluster bomb strike data requested by Lebanon, while complaining that Lebanon violates UN Security Council Resolution 1701 with arms smuggling. End summary. ISRAEL WILL NEITHER REJECT NOR ACCEPT UNIFIL'S GHAJAR PROPOSAL -------------- ¶3. (C) On November 7, UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Michael Williams briefed the Ambassador and DCM on his trips earlier in the week to Israel and Syria. UN POLOFF Salvatore Pedulla and POLOFF also attended the meeting at the Embassy. Williams, who visited Tel Aviv and Jerusalem on November 3-4, said that Israel Defense Forces (IDF) General Hayman indicated that Israel would neither accept nor reject UNIFIL's proposal for withdrawal from Ghajar by the November 22 deadline. Williams said that he anticipated receiving a response letter from Israel that, in line with this neutral stance, would raise a series of technical, security-related questions. UNIFIL Commander Claudio Graziano was planning to travel to Tel Aviv November 9 to address Israeli concerns. ¶4. (C) Williams cautioned that he learned during his visit that some Israeli officials are currently debating whether the Olmert government would have the proper authority to make a decision to withdraw, given that the GOI is in transition. Williams added that he had met PM Fouad Siniora on November 5 and understood that the PM was still "patiently waiting" for an Israeli response. Siniora's position seemed to be that Lebanon would wait forever if Graziano's proposal were rejected by the Israelis, said Williams. (Comment: This tracked with the Ambassador's own conversation with Siniora the previous week. End comment.) ¶5. (C) Williams noted that a contact in Israeli PM Ehud Olmert's office had suggested it would be easy to relocate the residents from Ghajar because they were few in number. Williams shared that he had received a letter sent by "the residents of Ghajar" in which they asserted their Syrian identity and inquired why the Syrian government had not been included in discussions on Ghajar. The Ghajar residents had complained in the letter that they had not been consulted on the future of Ghajar and expressed a concern about any resolution dividing where they live. Williams said that both he and Graziano had said they were willing to meet with the residents. ¶6. (C) Williams noted that a weakness of Graziano's approach to the Ghajar proposal had been keeping it on a strictly military-military track. This was one drawback resulting from the long gap between his predecessor Geir Pedersen and himself, Williams commented. ¶7. (C) Noting that Graziano was "overly optimistic," Williams BEIRUT 00001613 002.2 OF 003 remarked that, "Israel often sees Lebanon the same way as Syria -- a failed state." He added that making the argument to Israelis on empowering the moderates "always falls on deaf ears." OLMERT INTENT ON SYRIAN-ISRAELI TRACK -------------- ¶8. (C) Noting the Secretary's recent comments about Annapolis, Williams said that Olmert no longer had anything left but the Turkish-led indirect negotiations with Syria as possible accomplishments before he departs his post. Therefore, he stated, Olmert was "going all out" on this track. One of Olmert's staff told Williams that "not a day goes by that he doesn't mention it three or four times." Some Israeli interlocutors raised the question as to whether Olmert had the authority to move forward on a deal with Syria. Williams assessed that the current Israeli government is "fractious" and it could take "well beyond" the February election before a new government is in place. MOALLEM EQUALLY KEEN ON SYRIAN-ISRAELI TRACK -------------- ¶9. (C) Moving from Israel to Syria, Williams reported that during his November 6 trip to Damascus, Syrian FM Walid Moallem was "equally interested" in negotiations with Israel, believing that a fifth round of indirect talks will be held before year's end to discuss "technical issues." According to Williams, Moallem said he was open to direct talks with Israel if the fifth and sixth rounds of indirect negotiations go well, and hoped for a deal with Israel before the GOI's February elections. Moallem was quoted by Williams as saying that he was willing to make a deal with Olmert. ¶10. (C) At the same time, Williams relayed, Syrian VP Farouk al-Sharaa expressed nervousness that Olmert would be unable to "deliver." Sharaa inquired repeatedly whether Williams believed Olmert could deliver out of concern for Syria "appearing nave" in front of "Syria's public." Williams said that the Syrians, especially Moallem, spent much time querying him on what he thought President-elect Obama's views would be on these matters. Williams also met with Syrian MFA Vice FM Faisal Miqdad while in Damascus. SYRIA DOES NOT HAVE SHEBA'A MAPS; SHEBA'A BELONGS TO LEBANON -------------- ¶11. (C) According to Williams, Moallem insisted that Syria no longer possesses historical files about Sheba'a Farms, including maps, because "they were all shipped to Egypt" during the brief life of the United Arab Republic formed by Syria and Egypt in 1958. Nevertheless, Williams said, the Syrians are not interested in discussing Sheba'a with the Lebanese because they believe Sheba'a is Lebanese territory. Williams relayed that Moallem had said, "We will resolve Sheba'a within six hours of signing a peace treaty with Israel." Williams remarked on the irony that Israel and Syria shared the same position on Sheba'a ownership, but were equally unwilling to give anything to Lebanon in the meantime. LEBANON COULD BE LEFT IN THE COLD -------------- ¶12. (C) Acknowledging that Siniora has been unreceptive to the idea of talks with Israel, Williams emphasized that Lebanon could be left behind if talks move forward between Syria and Israel. Williams said that Israel would like to see Lebanon involved in negotiations. In his November 5 meeting with Williams, Siniora reportedly repeated his frequent assertion that Lebanon will be the "last nation" in the region to make a peace agreement with Israel. CHANGE IN SYRIAN RHETORIC ON LEBANON -------------- BEIRUT 00001613 003 OF 003 ¶13. (C) Williams noted that Moallem had remarked on the changed rhetoric used by the SARG when discussing Lebanon -- previously, SARG officials spoke of the "situation in Lebanon; conversely, today, Moallem says that the focus is on relations with Lebanon. Moallem believes the two countries would exchange ambassadors by year's end. ISRAELI POSITION ON CLUSTER BOMBS, OVERFLIGHTS -------------- ¶14. (C) In response to Siniora's letter to the UN on Israel's use of cluster bombs during the July 2006 war, Williams relayed that the IDF is looking once more at providing the strike data and would possibly respond to the letter. However, he caveated, it seemed there were intelligence implications, which could deter the Israelis from providing data. ¶15. (C) On Israeli overflights, Williams said that the Israelis take issue with how the UN counts the flights. Williams said he believed the overflights were partly intended to gather intelligence, and partly aimed at intimidating Hizballah. He added that he hears complaints from Israeli officials that arms smuggling into Lebanon is in violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, but these violations are neither documented nor in the UN's purview. SISON