LEBANON: PRESIDENT'S ADVISOR ADVOCATES ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001603

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S HOOK, PDAS WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER/GERMAIN
NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC IS SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: PRESIDENT'S ADVISOR ADVOCATES ELECTIONS
FREE FROM OUTSIDE INTERFERENCE

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) Ambassador Naji Abi Assi, advisor to President Michel
Sleiman, suggested that the new U.S. administration pursue
regional peace in the Middle East, noting that Lebanon stood
to benefit greatly from Arab rapprochement. Regarding
Lebanon's spring 2009 parliamentary elections, Abi Assi
stressed that Lebanon needed "political space," free from
outside influence, and that the representation of both March
14 and March 8 in the government was a positive force. He
stated that Sleiman would not formally form an independent
bloc, but would encourage "moderate, open-minded"
individuals, separate from the existing alliances, running
for parliament. He downplayed the prospects of imminent
peace talks (indirect or direct) between Lebanon and Israel,
but said that Lebanon's negotiating with Israel on issues
such as Palestinian refugees was viable in an Annapolis-like
conference. Border issues, he said, were best resolved under
the auspices of the UN. Abi Assi expressed optimism for the
National Dialogue, noting that all of the participants seemed
keen to continue the process. After Sleiman's trip to Cairo
and New York, Abi Assi said Sleiman would "finally" make the
trip to Iran (November 24-25),which Sleiman had put off
despite persistent Iranian prodding. End summary.

ARAB RAPPROCHEMENT
"BEST" U.S. STRATEGY
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2. (C) The Ambassador, accompanied by PolOff, met Ambassador
Naji Abi Assi, Diplomatic and Political Advisor to President
Michel Sleiman, at Baabda Palace on November 6. Abi Assi
cited regional peace in the Middle East as the most important
goal for the next administration in Washington, in his view.
He explained that Lebanon benefits from regional peace, and
loses when there is strife between regional players.
Encouraging moderation in Lebanon was the best support the
U.S. could offer Lebanon, said.

INFORMALLY FORMING
AN INDEPENDENT BLOC
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3. (C) Turning to internal matters, Abi Assi stressed that it
is in Lebanon's best interest to have both March 14 and March
8 represented in the government. When Lebanon's neighbors
choose one party over another, he said, Lebanon suffers. He
said he hoped the region and the U.S. would allow for
"political space," in a way that is felt by the Lebanese.


4. (C) Addressing the Ambassador's inquiry about President
Sleiman forming an independent bloc, Abi Assi said that
Sleiman is "above blocs," adding that another bloc would not
work. Instead, Abi Assi advocated a group of moderate
individuals who are "separate" from the March 14 and March 8
alliances. In this way, he explained, no one is formally
"with" the president, but they are informally in the sense
that they are "moderate and open-minded," naming Robert
Ghanem, Minister of State Nassib Lahoud, and Interior
Minister Ziad Baroud as such individuals.


5. (C) He surmised that March 14, "for the most part,"
accepted this idea, while Free Patriotic Movement leader
Michel Aoun holds that it was impossible to be "independent."
He underlined that Sleiman would not campaign nor be
involved with such a group, but would offer encouragement.

LEBANON-ISRAEL
TALKS "UNLIKELY"
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6. (C) Reviewing the possibilities that would allow for a
Lebanese-Israeli dialogue, Abi Assi suggested that a
breakthrough in the indirect Syrian-Israeli talks would bode
well for a Lebanon track; however, he dismissed the
likelihood of any breakthrough. Abi Assi ruminated that a
second Annapolis conference was a possibility for talks with

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Israel on specific issues, as long as the talks were under
the auspices of the UN or the U.S. He concluded that it was
not realistic to expect any Lebanese dialogue with Israel at
this time, but that regional events ultimately determined
whether Lebanon would entertain the idea of talks with
Israel. He added that peace between Syria and Israel would
be to Lebanon's advantage.


7. (C) Abi Assi stated that President Sleiman does not oppose
negotiations with Israel on isues such as the Palestinian
refugees and water,but that the issue of boundaries
(referring to Sheba'a Farms) was best negotiated within the
UN framework. He noted that Syria and Israel have yet to
react to the UN cartographer's assessment on Sheba'a. On the
issue of refugees, Abi Assi said that the "right of return"
was an international responsibility, and made the distinction
between repatriation and compensation. He stated Lebanon's
opposition to permanent resettlement of the refugees in
Lebanon.

NATIONAL DIALOGUE:
A WILL TO KEEP TALKING
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8. (C) Relatively optimistic on the National Dialogue session
held on November 5, Abi Assi assessed that there was a will
by the 14 participants to keep talking. He added that
everyone accepted the agreements reached during the National
Dialogue in 2006 to address disarming Palestinians outside of
the camps and Hizballah's arms. He noted that one of the two
issues in contention was whether to enlarge the participation
of the National Dialogue, saying that March 14 was adamant to
keep the group as it is.


9. (C) According to Abi Assi, the national defense strategy
was the second issue facing the group, and would take time to
resolve. He explained that the March 14 and March 8 National
Dialogue members were charged with drafting two separate
papers on this topic, noting that March 14 members Walid
Jumblatt and Amine Gemayel had each drafted a paper, while
Aoun and presumably Hizballah had their own versions. Abi
Assi said he sensed all of the members accepted that this
process would take time.

SLEIMAN IN CAIRO,
NEW YORK, AND IRAN
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10. (C) Abi Assi said that Sleiman would visit Cairo before
heading to New York for the UN Interfaith Dialogue November
12-13 in New York. Abi Assi confirmed that Sleiman would
also travel to Iran on November 24, noting that it was
somewhat obligatory, but that he had intentionally delayed
the trip until he had visited the U.S. and its regional
neighbors, despite Iranian prodding since May.
SISON