LEBANON: A/S HOOK TOURS THE BLUE LINE; MEETS WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 BEIRUT 001577 NOFORN SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO IO FOR A/S HOOK; PM FOR A/S KIMMITT NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/MCDERMOTT USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER OSD FOR EDELMAN/LONG/STRAUB/DALTON JOINT STAFF FOR BAKER/RANK/NICHOLSON CENTCOM FOR ALLARDICE/MACLEAN/PADDOCK DIA FOR LARSON/CRONIN/KRAUSE P FOR DRUSSEL, RRANGASWAMY E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2018 TAGS: MARR MASS MCAP PGOV PREL PTER PARM PINR SY IS, LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: A/S HOOK TOURS THE BLUE LINE; MEETS WITH UNIFIL COMMANDER GRAZIANO REF: IIR 6 857 0391 08 BEIRUT 00001577 001.2 OF 005 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) On October 31, A/S for International Relations Affairs Brian Hook, Ambassador, PolMilOff and Defense Attach toured the Blue Line in a UNIFIL helicopter, overflying Sheba'a farms and Ghajar, and met at length with UNIFIL Commander Graziano. Graziano has developed a detailed UNIFIL plan for Ghajar that has been approved by Prime Minister Siniora and has presented this plan to the Israelis. Graziano continues to press his Israeli interlocutors for additional cluster bomb strike data from the summer 2006 Israel-Hizballah war. Graziano is concerned that Israeli overflights undermine UNIFIL and are continuing each month. According to UNIFIL radar printouts, there were 21 overflights as of noon on the day of our visit. Graziano reviewed scenarios for resumption of hostilities in Lebanon and what actions UNIFIL would take in the event of hostilities. Graziano provided an informative briefing covering the entirety of UNIFIL operations, cooperation with the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), and troop levels in his area of responsibility. A/S Hook also observed U.S.- funded demining activities in South Lebanon, detonated a controlled blast to dispose of a cluster munition, and met with UN staff at the Tyre UN Mine Action Coordination Center. End Summary. ¶2. (C) A/S for International Organization Affairs Brian Hook and Ambassador, accompanied by PolMil Off and Defense Attach, met with UNIFIL Commander Major General Claudio Graziano in his office in Naqoura on October 31. Graziano offered up the use of his helicopter for the day to facilitate visits to cluster bomb destruction sites, a complete tour of the Blue Line, Sheba'a Farms, and the length of the Litani river that is in the UNIFIL area of operations. "MY MAIN FOCUS IS GHAJAR" -------------- 
 ¶3. (C) Graziano opened the meeting by saying, "my main focus is still Ghajar." Graziano related that he had recently met with Israeli Minister of Defense Ehud Barak and Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) Chief General Ashkenazy in Tel Aviv concerning UNIFIL and the specific issue of IDF withdrawal northern Ghajar inside Lebanon. Graziano reiterated his support of the UNIFIL plan for IDF withdrawal from Ghajar as a viable solution that would be good for both sides (reftel). Graziano told us that the IDF is supportive of the plan but there was difficulty at the "political level" over the fate of the Syrian Alawite Muslims with Israeli identity cards that live in north Ghajar. ¶4. (C) Describing the Ghajar issue as "the last chance for diplomacy," Graziano predicted this issue will lead to armed conflict if it is not addressed, saying, "if Israel does not leave, it will be war over this permanent occupation. It will be a diplomatic defeat for UNIFIL, Prime Minister Siniora, and Lebanon." (Comment: We do not believe that Hizballah would, at least under current circumstances, take up arms to resolve the issue. End Comment.) Graziano also told us that the current UNIFIL plan is much less stringent for Israel as compared to the twenty-seven point proposal that the Israelis had agreed to in November 2006. ¶5. (C) Graziano expressed bewilderment at the Israeli refusal to withdraw from Ghajar. He recalled that Israel evacuated northern Ghajar when the Israelis withdrew from south Lebanon in 2006 and that it posed no problem for them when Hizballah BEIRUT 00001577 002.2 OF 005 occupied northern Ghajar. According to Graziano, Hizballah is able to use the previous Israeli withdrawal as proof of Hizballah's superior abilities to liberate south Lebanon. "Since the LAF has been in south Lebanon, they have not been able to accomplish the task of regaining control of northern Ghajar," said Graziano. Graziano also predicted that UNIFIL troop contributing countries may be less inclined to continue their support if it looks like UNIFIL is faltering in its attempts to fulfill its obligations under UNSCR 1701. ¶6. (C) When asked about Sheba'a Farms, Graziano said, "I am ready to go there tomorrow." Even so, Graziano sees that the issues of Sheba'a and Ghajar have completely different considerations. Graziano characterized Sheba'a as "a big water tank where animals go in the summer to lay on the ground." Graziano again stressed with us that his primary concern now was Ghajar and that any discussion of Sheba'a needed to wait until Ghajar was resolved. LAF DEPLOYMENT IN THE SOUTH, POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL TROOPS FOR UNIFIL -------------- ¶7. (C) When asked about the LAF in his area of responsibility, Graziano was generally positive about the individual soldiers, but he was less enthusiastic about the number of LAF troops. The LAF was supposed to deploy 15,000 troops to the south after the July 2006 war, but they never deployed more than 9,000 troops. These troop numbers have slowly dwindled as company sized elements (about 100 soldiers each) have been deployed to assist in missions elsewhere in Lebanon. Graziano said he saw the largest reduction in May 2008 when seven companies were moved to Beirut. When the LAF's 10th Brigade redeployed from Marjayoun in the south to Tripoli in the north in October 2008, only 400 of 1,700 troops moved as the other 1,300 troops from the 10th Brigade had already been re-deployed to other locations. At this time, Graziano assesses that there are only 3,500 LAF troops in the three LAF infantry brigades that remain in his area of responsibility. These three brigades are the 6th, 11th, and 12th Brigades. All three brigades are on the border with Israel. Graziano praised USG assistance for the LAF and strongly advocated for increased assistance, so the "LAF can stand up to Hizballah." In a disturbing development, Graziano told us that LAF Commander General Jean Kahwagi has come to him asking for food and fuel for the army. "This is a very bad sign," said Graziano. ¶8. (C) Graziano also related that he has been offered additional troops from Malaysia and Indonesia which he very much needs, but that their deployment is becoming problematic because of their lack of official relations with Israel. The Koreans, Salvadorans and Kenyans are also offering more troops for UNIFIL and Graziano is hopeful that these troops will be approved. "I need infantry," said Graziano, "I have plenty of specialized troops already." All in all, Graziano has 12,500 UNIFIL troops deployed, including the members of the UNIFIL Maritime Task Force. PEACEKEEPER SALUTE WAS NOT A GOOD IDEA -------------- ¶9. (C) A/S Hook asked about the much publicized Italian soldier salute of remains returning from Israel. In response, Graziano dropped his head in resignation saying, "this was not a good idea, but the soldier did what he was trained to do." According to European military tradition, soldiers should salute corpses draped in national colors when they pass. The coffins that the soldiers saluted were draped in the Lebanese national flag. The event occurred at a BEIRUT 00001577 003.2 OF 005 checkpoint along the road, far away from the official reception site. The LAF troops that were standing beside the Italian soldiers at the combined checkpoint also saluted. When reminded that there was a huge photo of Imad Mughniyya on the vehicle as well, Graziano responded, "yes, that looked bad, but how many young soldiers know what Mullah Omar looks like in Afghanistan?" Graziano related that he had received extensive contact from the most senior levels in Italy as well over this incident. Graziano made it clear that he wished to ensure that such an incident did not happen again. SCENARIOS FOR RENEWED HOSTILITIES IN LEBANON -------------- ¶10. (C) Graziano related MinDef Barak's three scenarios for renewed hostilities in Lebanon. The three scenarios include 1) the Iranian "problem" getting to a level that is unacceptable to Israel, 2) Hizballah taking revenge for the assassination of Imad Mughniyya against Israel, or 3) Hizballah trying to deploy an early warning or anti-aircraft radar system in Lebanon. Graziano said that Israel is optimistic that there will not be a problem in Lebanon in the near future, but that they always remain prepared in case something happens unexpectedly. ¶11. (C) In discussing localized incidents between Israel and Lebanon on the Blue Line, Graziano characterized both sides as "mature" in their handling of the occasional arrest of a shepherd or an Israeli patrol that gets close to the unmarked Blue Line. Graziano said that both sides understand that there will always be independent actors who try to upset the peace along the Blue Line. As long as any single event can be proven to be carried out by an independent actor, Graziano is confident that UNIFIL can quickly contain the situation. ¶12. (C) In the event of renewed hostilities, Graziano explained UNIFIL's role. According to Graziano, UNSCR 1701 mandates that UNIFIL protect the civilian population. Graziano expressed optimism that UNIFIL troops could contain any minor incursions by the Israelis if he could intervene within six hours of IDF forces crossing into Lebanon. A/S Hook asked about UNIFIL training and field readiness. Graziano noted that it was challenging to run UNIFIL training exercises without alarming the local population. (Comment: Some of Graziano's comments reveal that he has some concern with national caveats from troop contributing countries that might prevent them from doing anything more than withdrawing to their cantonment areas in the event of renewed hostilities. End Comment.) OVERFLIGHTS CONSTANTLY UNDERMINE UNIFIL THERE WERE 21 OVERFLIGHTS BY NOON 31 OCTOBER -------------- ¶13. (SBU) According to Graziano, the issue of Israeli overflights continues to undermine UNIFIL every day. Acknowledging that overflights have intelligence value, he said there is no way any army, anywhere in world, needs as many overflights as there are each day. When A/S Hook asked about how UNIFIL counts overflights, Graziano's aide, Colonel Lucia, showed A/S Hook five radar print-outs of the Israel overflights that had occurred by twelve o'clock that morning. UNIFIL uses the radars on the Maritime Task Force and the radars from six French MISTRAL anti-aircraft missile batteries to track Israeli overflights. When a flight enters the UNIFIL area of operations from the south, exits to the north, and re-enters the UNIFIL area three hours later from the north on its way back to Israel, this would count as two violations. At the same time, if the flight consists of two, three or more aircraft in formation, this is only counted as BEIRUT 00001577 004.2 OF 005 one violation if they enter the UNIFIL area, exit, and do not return. Clearly, there are counting discrepancies that are arguable by both sides, "but is a difference between 452 overflights and 363 overflights really that significant?" asked Graziano. ¶14. (SBU) In the end, Graziano told us that "the problem is that such a huge number of overflights is hard to explain." Graziano assessed that a reduction in the number of overflights would go a long way towards reducing tensions in the south and limit the risk of an Israeli pilot winding up on the ground in Lebanon. When asked to explain, Graziano told us that it is entirely possible for an aircraft to have a mechanical problem that forces the pilot to eject. "We will get to him as quickly as we can and protect him," said Graziano, "but if the LAF gets to him first, Israel will launch a war inside Lebanon to get their pilot back. It is in their interest to reduce the number of flights." CLUSTER BOMB STRIKE DATA PROVIDED IS INSUFFICIENT -------------- -------------- ¶15. (SBU) A/S Hook also attended a briefing with the United Nations Mine Action Coordination Center (UNMACC) in Tyre and subsequently visited a live fire demolition site in a valley not far from the Israeli border. The location had been a Hizballah weapons storage location according to workers on the site. This area was surrounded by banana groves, many of which had been cut down to facilitate clearance of the cluster munitions. According to GOL statistics, 26 percent of Lebanon's farmland remains affected by the explosive remnants of war, including South Lebanon's most fertile citrus, tobacco, olive, and banana-growing areas. ¶16. (C) UNMACC personnel told us that the strike data provided by the Israelis was of "no practical value" for humanitarian demining as it contained no precise data; rather, it contains a statistical probability of how many munitions might be found in a ten kilometer by ten kilometer square. In coordination with Lebanese Mine Action Coordination Center (LMAC) and UNMACC, UNIFIL is also working to help clear the cluster munitions as quickly as possible, but it is impossible to know if they have completed their mission as they do not know how many munitions were fired in the first place. Specifically, UNMACC asked that cluster munitions strike data should be provided using the "Kosovo standard" for strike data. ¶17. (C) In a separate briefing, outgoing UNMACC program director Chris Clark stated that, "The back of the problem had been broken." Only five percent of the known contaminated terrain still needs initial clearing, he said, but reiterated that the danger of unexploded ordnance will remain for years to come. Clark commented on the UNMACC turnover of operations to the LMAC at the end of December. Staffed by experienced LAF personnel previously working with UNMACC, Clark said the new LMAC headquarters in Nabetiya will receive some technical and administrative UNMACC staff temporarily. He added that LMAC will continue with residual clearing in the south and begin clearing some known contaminated areas in the Chouf Mountains as well. ¶18. (C) With regard to further funding requirements in 2008, Clark said there was still a $2.8 million shortfall from the original 2008 budget. He understood that some funds had been diverted by donor countries to other unforeseen needs, but he would be able to continue until the end of the year with 33 of his original 44 clearing teams. Clark referred to the Saudis as potentially coming through with more money and was even "optimistic" funds would come before the end of the year. He mentioned he was told that UN SYG Ban would address BEIRUT 00001577 005.2 OF 005 the funding issue with the Saudis during the scheduled November 12-13 Interfaith Dialogue in New York. (Note: President Sleiman is scheduled to attend the Dialogue. End note.) Clark noted that should funds come to UNMACC before the close of the calendar year and not be fully used, then remaining money would be transferred to the LMAC demining operations under a contract with UNMACC. ¶19. (U) A/S Hook has cleared this cable. SISON