LEBANON: JUMBLATT WITH A/S HOOK: JUSTICE AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001563 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A/S HOOK, PDAS WARLICK P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER/GERMAIN NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE SY SUBJECT: LEBANON: JUMBLATT WITH A/S HOOK: JUSTICE AND STABILITY IMPORTANT TRIBUNAL OUTCOMES Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, in an October 30 meeting with visiting Assistant Secretary for International Organization Affairs Brian Hook and Ambassador, stressed justice and stability as priorities for the outcome of the Special Tribunal. Jumblatt repeatedly ceded authority for March 14 decisions regarding the Tribunal to Sunni leader Saad Hariri but discussed the sensitivities of naming any Lebanese party or sect, specifically Hizballah or the Shia, as culpable in the killing of Saad,s father, former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. He said President Sleiman was content with a slow pace for the National Dialogue progress. Jumblatt supported the idea of a third Christian list under the auspices of President Sleiman for 2009 parliamentary elections. End Summary. JUSTICE AND STABILITY FOR UNIIIC -------------- ¶2. (C) Druze Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) leader Walid Jumblatt emphasized to the Ambassador and visiting A/S for International Organization Affairs Hook that while any outcome of UNIIIC's investigation must provide justice for Lebanon and for Jumblatt's March 14 ally Saad Hariri, it must also avoid creating chaos in the country. Jumblatt repeatedly referred to Saad as the "main actor" on the court, saying Hariri needed justice for his father's killing. Jumblatt said that while he shook hands with then President Hafez Asad in Damascus despite believing that Asad was responsible for the assassination of his father Kamal, he doubts Hariri could do the same with Syrian president Bashir Asad. Additionally, Jumblatt claimed that no disagreement was possible between Saudi Arabia and Hariri, therefore, Riyadh's reaction to the commission's work, and that of the Special Tribunal, would be important. ¶3. (C) Referring to rumors that the inquiry had some evidence implicating Hizballah, Jumblatt said that any UNIIIC outcome involving the group must differentiate actions taken by Hizballah sympathizers or a section within Hizballah from the group itself and from the Shia sect. He described the Tribunal as an important legal and political tool that should be used to "change the behavior" of the Syrian regime, and potentially Iranian leaders if they are implicated. A/S Hook emphasized the strong U.S. commitment to the Special Tribunal, evidenced by the United States' position as the largest donor. HIZBALLAH "CRAZY" TO PROVOKE WAR -------------- ¶4. (C) Although in 2006 the Lebanese population accepted Hizballah's kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers, Jumblatt assessed that popular sentiment had changed. He commented that Hizballah would be "crazy" to give Israel a pretext for war. Sunni, Druze, and parts of the Christian population would not be receptive to opening their homes to persons from the south displaced by war, as they had in 2006, and Shia whose homes were destroyed in the 2006 war would not welcome more destruction. Jumblatt said progress on Shebaa Farms and settlement of the status of Ghajar would help reduce the pretext for Hizballah's weapons. UNRWA NEEDS SUPPORT -------------- ¶5. (C) Mentioning an earlier meeting with UNRWA Director Salvatore Lombardo and Commissioner General Filippo Grandi (septel),the Ambassador asked Jumblatt for his views on Nahr al-Barid Palestinian camp, destroyed in the fighting last summer between the Lebanese Armed Forces and extremist group Fatah al-Islam. Jumblatt said UNRWA needs more money for Lebanon's Palestinian camps. He argued that the Palestinians cannot be left indefinitely without assistance. The Nahr al-Barid refugees need schools, hospitals, and basic services, he said. BEIRUT 00001563 002 OF 002 HIZBALLAH'S ARMS DECIDED ABROAD -------------- ¶6. (C) At the next National Dialogue meeting on November 5, Jumblatt said he would discuss the possibility of incorporating Hizballah,s weapons into the army but argued that it is not a "local decision" but one that will be taken "by the next Iranian president." He said the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) eeds more advanced equipment, specifically anti-ank and anti-aircraft missiles, to show the populaion and Hizballah that it is fully equipped to protect the country. President Sleiman, according to Jumblatt, is "not in a hurry" to make any decisions in the National Dialogue sessions. SLEIMAN'S LIST WOULD BRING BALANCE -------------- ¶7. (C) Jumblatt assessed that reconciliation between Christian leaders Suleiman Franjieh and Samir Geagea was "impossible" and has been encouraging the formation of a third Christian bloc under the leadership of President Michel Sleiman. Responding to a question about whether Sleiman would be willing to form such a list, Jumblatt said that Sleiman, as the winner of the fighting against Fatah al-Islam in the Nahr al-Barid Palestinian camp last year, should be brave enough to form the list. His list would bring balance to the political sphere as neither March 14 or March 8 would have a majority. Jumblatt agreed with the Ambassador that the idea of a separate Christian bloc had made opposition Christian leader Michel Aoun very nervous. TASHNAQ AND VOTING REGULATIONS -------------- ¶8. (C) Moving to other electoral issues, Jumblatt said he has good relations with the Armenian Tashnaq party but doubts they will leave the opposition. Jumblatt would support international observers for the 2009 parliamentary elections, which he said would be held in June, and said he had been contacted by the Carter Center regarding the possibility of international observers. ¶9. (C) Discussing out-of-country voting, Jumblatt argued (only slightly in jest) that Lebanese politicians should be able to hire planes and fly their emigrant supporters back to Lebanon to vote, saying politicians needed to find a way around the "stupid (campaign financing) law." (Note: Jumblatt was referring to the new electoral financing election law that caps the amount of money Lebanese politicians are allowed to spend campaigning. End Note.) Jumblatt estimated that 20,000 Druze live in the United States alone. ¶10. (U) A/S Hook has cleared this cable. SISON