LEBANON: SINIORA TERMS ABU JAMRA CONTROVERSY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001533 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA, PM/FO ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S HOOK, WARLICK P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR ABRAMS/YERGER/MCDERMOTT/RAMCHAND E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: SINIORA TERMS ABU JAMRA CONTROVERSY "CHEAP EFFORT" TO INFLUENCE CHRISTIAN VOTERS REF: BEIRUT 1513 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) PM Siniora expressed frustration over the controversy generated by Deputy PM (DPM) Abu Jamra over the DPM's role, saying that he will give Abu Jamra office space and some assignment to try to mollify him, but is not willing to increase the powers of the DPM position. He believed that Abu Jamra's ally Michel Aoun was stoking the controversy in order to appeal to his Christian supporters. Siniora said he is "not pessimistic" about March 14's chances in the 2009 elections, but had some specific recommendations for March 14 to become stronger before the elections. His expectations for the November 5 National Dialogue session were low. Siniora also said President Sleiman intends to attend the November 12-13 UN Interfaith Dialogue in New York, in part because Lebanon seeks to be the site of a permanent center for the Dialogue. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Ambassador met with PM Fouad Siniora at the Grand Serail on October 25; DCM and Siniora's aide Rola Noureddine also attended. Siniora noted he would be traveling to Kuwait and Egypt for four days beginning October 27. SINIORA WILL TRY TO MOLLIFY DPM WITH OFFICE SPACE AND TASKS -------------- -- ¶3. (C) Siniora and the Ambassador discussed the controversy over the role of Deputy PM Issam Abu Jamra, an opposition figure in the cabinet who belongs to Michel Aoun's party. Abu Jamra had walked out of the cabinet meeting earlier in the week complaining that Siniora was not responding to his demands to be given a defined role. Shaking his head, Siniora called the actions by Abu Jamra, a Greek Orthodox Christian, a "cheap effort" to appeal to Aoun's Christian supporters. Abu Jamra's move also was designed to distract attention from issues such as Hizballah's arms, Siniora said, pointing to Michel Aoun's recent trip to Tehran as a similar distraction. It is "not constitutional" to give the DPM defined duties, Siniora said emphatically; "Taif fully covered all these issues." ¶4. (C) Siniora said he would try to deal with Abu Jamra's complaints by giving him an office near the Grand Serail (but not in the building),and some specific responsibilities. But he made it clear he was not willing to do much more to respond to Abu Jamra's complaints. Siniora will not agree to change the role of the DPM, traditionally filled by a Greek Orthodox, to include, for example, his acting in the absence of the Prime Minister. He said that the prime minister's position, reserved for Sunnis, is "particularly vulnerable" because a PM can be removed by losing a vote of confidence. Thus, not weakening the prerogatives of the position is important. Siniora said that the senior Greek Orthodox religious figure for Lebanon, Patriarch Hazim, had passed messages that he supported Siniora in this dispute and that the Greek Orthodox Church does not want to see this issue escalate. Siniora's annoyance at Abu Jamra and his allies was palpable: "This issue is keeping the Christian community tense", he said. "NOT PESSIMISTIC" ABOUT 2009 ELECTIONS -------------- ¶5. (C) The Ambassador asked Siniora how he viewed the lead-up to the 2009 elections. "I am not pessimistic," he said, and then cited some specific actions he believed were important to strengthen March 14: -- Everyone in March 14 needs to stay on course. In particular, there is a need to approach Christian leader Samir Geagea and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt in this regard. -- There should be a March 14 alliance in what is expected to be the battleground Metn district among Amine Gemayel, Nassib Lahoud and political boss Michel Murr. BEIRUT 00001533 002 OF 002 -- There should be an effort to influence Armenian voters, a key swing bloc, to support pro-March 14 candidates. The USG could help through the Armenian-American community, he suggested. -- March 14 should pick parliamentary candidates with broad appeal, not just those loyal to party leaders. There was also a brief discussion of the role of international observers, with the PM noting the possibility of an Arab League observer delegation. SINIORA EXPECTS NOTHING FROM NATIONAL DIALOGUE, BUT FOCUS ON AN EVENT IS USEFUL -------------- ¶6. (C) Ambassador asked what Siniora expected from the second session of the National Dialogue, to be chaired by President Sleiman on November 5. "Nothing," he replied succinctly. However, there is value to keeping the attention of Lebanese political actors focused on events such as this to reduce tensions, he believed. Siniora said that President Sleiman intends to attend the November 12-13 UN Interfaith Dialogue event in New York. He noted that Lebanon aspires to be the permanent seat of the Dialogue, partly explaining Sleiman's strong interest. SISON