LEBANON: WITH MARCH 14, DAS HALE STRESSES U.S.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BEIRUT 001473

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA, PM/FO
ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S HOOK, WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR ABRAMS/YERGER/MCDERMOTT/RAMCHAND

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: WITH MARCH 14, DAS HALE STRESSES U.S.
LEBANON, SYRIA POLICIES UNCHANGED

REF: PARIS 1855

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) March 14 leaders shared their concerns about regional
developments with visiting NEA Deputy Assistant Secretary
David Hale, especially perceived western (especially French)
rapprochement with Syria and possible focus of the next U.S.
administration on Iran, at Lebanon's expense. The March 14
leaders who had visited Paris recently told Hale they were
dismayed to find the French "enthusiastic" towards Syria.
DAS Hale stressed that U.S. policy toward Lebanon and Syria
had not changed, despite recent meetings with Syrian Foreign
Minister Moallem, and said the U.S. was committed to
continuing support for the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF).
March 14 Secretariat members also shared their strategy for
the 2009 parliamentary, including the participation of
international observers, engaging the Lebanese diaspora, and
promoting a unified message. End summary.


2. (C) NEA Deputy Assistant Secretary David Hale met with
several March 14 leaders and Secretariat members during his
October 4-8 visit to Lebanon. On October 4, Christian
leaders Minister of State Nassib Lahoud, MP Nayla Mouawad,
and stalwart March 14 member Sheikh Michel Khoury hosted a
dinner in his honor, also attended by the Ambassador, DCM,
and Pol/Econ Chief. On October 7, March 14 SYG Fares Souaid
hosted a second dinner, which included Druze MP Marwan
Hamadeh and National Liberal Party leader Dory Chamoun (both
of whom, with Souaid and MP Samir Franjieh, had just returned
from a trip to Paris where they met with senior French
government officials to express March 14 concerns about
French rapprochement with Syria, reftel),March 14
Secretariat members Antoine Haddad and Michel Mecattaf, and
journalist May Chidiac. The Ambassador, DCM, Pol/Econ Chief,
and Senior LES Political Advisor also attended the second
dinner.

DAS HALE STRESSES ENDURING
U.S. COMMITMENT TO LEBANON
--------------


3. (C) At both dinners, DAS Hale stressed that U.S. policy
toward Lebanon and Syria had not changed. Lahoud, who said
he will accompany Sleiman on his October 11-12 trip to Saudi
Arabia, said Sleiman was pleased with his U.S. visit.
However, many in March 14 feared that the U.S. commitment to
Lebanon would wane with the upcoming presidential election.
Hamadeh, at the October 7 dinner, echoed Lahoud, saying
strong statements by the next U.S. administration asserting
continuity in U.S. support for an independent and sovereign
Lebanon would be critical to March 14. The opposition is
betting on a change in U.S. policies towards Lebanon, he
warned.


4. (C) DAS Hale replied that regardless of who wins the U.S.
election, the Middle East will be prominent on the foreign
policy agenda. While there will be changes of tone and
personalities, U.S. interests in the region are enduring and
will not change, he stressed. Furthermore, Lebanon was
considered a success story, in the sense that things were
moving in the right direction following the 2005 Syrian
withdrawal and recent election of a new president and
resumption of parliament, and the U.S. commitment to our
interests in Lebanon had bipartisan support and should not
change.


5. (C) Mouawad, who attended the Democratic National
Convention (DNC) in Denver, said the perception in Lebanon
was that the Democrats see only Iran and Pakistan. Lahoud,
who also attended some of the DNC, agreed that for the
Democrats, "It's all about Iran," adding that they appeared
willing to talk with all of Iraq's neighbors. Khoury noted
that it was not possible to separate Iran and Hizballah.


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6. (C) DAS Hale agreed with Khoury, noting Iran's presence in
both Lebanon and Gaza. Lahoud expressed growing concerns
that there would be a war against Iran. DAS Hale replied
that if Iran was successful in advancing its nuclear weapons
programs, other countries in the region might be inclined to
take matters into their own hands, which he agreed would be a
dangerous situation. Hale also noted that Russia, which had
supported the most recent UNSC Resolution against Iran, was
back with the U.S. on this issue.


7. (C) Lahoud also expressed concerns that the
Turkish-sponsored talks between Israel and Syria would leave
Lebanon in the cold. He stressed that the Syrian track
includes Hizballah, therefore Lebanon must be a player. DAS
Hale said the U.S. welcomed any effort to expand peace and
that the Turks seemed very committed, but the U.S. priority
remained the Palestinian track. However, the U.S. would not
allow an agreement at Lebanon's expense. Lahoud suggested
that there should be parallel indirect talks between Lebanon
and Israel.

U.S. COMMITTED TO SUPPORTING ARMY
--------------


8. (C) DAS Hale told his March 14 hosts that part of the
purpose of his visit was to attend the October 6 Joint
Military Commission (JMC). Referring to President Sleiman's
recent meeting with Secretary of Defense Gates, Hale said the
U.S. and Lebanon shared a common vision and the JMC was the
launch of a process to increase U.S. support for the Lebanese
Armed Forces (LAF). He added that it could take time to
reverse two decades of Syrian influence within the army.
Responding to Haddad's question about the need for
Congressional approval, Hale confirmed that congressional
notification was needed for some items, both in terms of
dollar value and type of equipment, but said there was strong
bipartisan support for Lebanon in Washington.


9. (C) Khoury stressed that U.S. military assistance would
help convince President Sleiman of the benefits of U.S.
friendship and aid him in his efforts to counter Hizballah.
Hamadeh said supporting the LAF is essential because it would
help March 14 at the National Dialogue table discussions of
the national defense strategy. He welcomed President
Sleiman's postponement of the dialogue until November 5,
saying that adopting a defense strategy under the current
balance of power would give Hizballah the upper hand, whereas
negotiating with a strengthened LAF would help March 14.

CONCERNED ABOUT FRENCH
RAPPROCHEMENT WITH SYRIA
--------------


10. (C) Souaid, who, along with Hamadeh, Chamoun, and MP
Samir Franjieh, had just returned from Paris where they met
with FM Kouchner and other senior French officials (reftel),
said the purpose of the visit was to express March 14's
concerns about French rapprochement with Syria. He warned
that Hizballah is very active in Europe, particularly with
the European parliament and in Brussels, and that its
influence in the French media and some circles within the
French administration also was growing. Souaid attributed
this in part to French commercial interests with Qatar and
Syria.


11. (C) March 14 was dismayed to find the French
"enthusiastic" towards Syria, with Kouchner reportedly
feeling confident that Syria would distance itself from Iran.
Hamadeh said Kouchner believes Syria will adopt a very
strong position against Hizballah, and would stop its arms
shipments to Lebanon, adding that, "The French believe Syria
does not want to find itself in the middle of a possible war
between Iran on the one hand and the U.S. and Israel on the
other."


12. (C) On the other hand, Hamadeh said the French stressed
their support for Lebanon's independence and sovereignty,
which they viewed as "red lines." Hamadeh echoed Souaid's
assessment of growing Syrian influence in France, especially

BEIRUT 00001473 003 OF 004


in the media and think tanks, adding that it was very visible
in comparison with the previous French administration under
Jacques Chirac. Hamadeh commented that relations between
France and Saudi Arabia were very bad, and cold between Egypt
and France. However, he added that some within the French
government were advocating better relations with Egypt and
trying to convince President Sarkozy not to put all "of the
French eggs in the Qatari basket."

SPECIAL TRIBUNAL MUST START
BEFORE 2009 ELECTIONS
--------------


13. (C) Hamadeh stressed the importance of the UN Special
Tribunal for Lebanon, asking for U.S. help to ensure that it
was up and running at least two months before the spring 2009
parliamentary elections. This would benefit March 14 at the
polls, he argued. Hamadeh was comfortable with the French
position vis-a-vis the Tribunal, stating that, "The French
are very firm on this front and have conveyed the message to
the UN and the U.S."


14. (C) Hamadeh warned that Syrian President Bashar Asad was
"liquidating" all possible witnesses in the Hariri
assassination to "cut all the branches that could lead to his
role in the assassination." A senior Syrian army officer,
Ibrahim Safi, the head of the Palestine Branch in the Syrian
intelligence, could have been killed in the Damascus
explosion last month, he said.

MARCH 14 SECRETARIAT
DISCUSSES ELECTIONS STRATEGIES
--------------


15. (C) At the October 7 dinner, March 14 leaders also
discussed their strategy for the 2009 parliamentary
elections. Chamoun said the French agreed to send observers
to monitor the 2009 parliamentary elections. Hamadeh,
however, cautioned that unless there was a large number of
observers (i.e., more than 100),the elections would be
flawed and could legitimize a possible March 8 victory. He
stressed the need for observers to be heavily present in
contested areas such as the southern suburbs of Beirut and
the Armenian neighborhood of Burj Hammoud.


16. (C) The March 14 Secretariat members also discussed
efforts to engage the pro-March 14 Lebanese diaspora to
ensure success at the polls. Hamadeh said Lebanese living
abroad should be contacted and encouraged to come to Lebanon
and participate in the elections, even if that means renting
private planes to bring them on voting day. March 14 needed
to identify individuals whose votes in certain key districts,
such as Baabda and Zahle, could make a difference. Hariri's
Future Movement has experience in organizing charter
airplanes, he said, but efforts should focus on Christian
voters who are living abroad. There are 25,000 families of
Lebanese origin living in France, and encouraging them to
come to Lebanon on voting day would be beneficial for March

14.


17. (C) The Secretariat members also discussed March 14's
message, which focuses on Lebanon's independence,
sovereignty, and democratic principles. Souaid and others
stressed the need to counter Hizballah, and warn the
Christian community that voting for Michel Aoun was
tantamount to turning Lebanon into an Iranian satellite.
Mecattaf stressed the importance of reopening the Murr
television (MTV) station to provide March 14 with the means
to reach Christian audiences. MTV could also play a role in
providing a voice for underrepresented groups who have no
other media outlets, such as moderate Shia, he said.


18. (C) At the October 4 dinner, Mouawad said 90 percent of
Lebanese abroad were pro-March 14. She and Lahoud were
confident March 14 would win the elections, although Mouawad
added that the elections were irrelevant since Hizballah
already was taking over the state. Addressing Khoury's
suggestion that the elections might not occur, Lahoud said
that if both sides believed they would win, there would be

BEIRUT 00001473 004 OF 004


elections.


18. (U) DAS Hale has cleared this message.
SISON