Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
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08BEIRUT1454 | 2008-10-08 11:00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Beirut |
VZCZCXRO1165 PP RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHROV DE RUEHLB #1454/01 2821100 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 081100Z OCT 08 FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3233 INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 3008 RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 3219 RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC |
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001454 |
1. (C) In an October 7 meeting with visiting NEA DAS David Hale, independent MP Michel Murr remarked he was unconcerned about recent Syrian troop buildup at the northern Lebanese-Syrian border, attributing the maneuver to a Syrian desire to intimidate Salafists in northern Lebanon. Murr revealed that Hizballah unsuccessfully attempted to reconcile him with his former political ally, Free Patriotic Movement Michel Aoun. Murr said that while he had reconciled with Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, he was unwilling to form a joint parliamentary list with him. Confiding part of his grand elections strategy, Murr revealed that majority leader Saad Hariri would soon offer two seats on the Beirut-Ashrafieh list to Armenian Tashnaq members. Murr agreed to continue the National Dialogue process, despite his doubts that it could address Hizballah's arms. He was optimistic on the Israeli-Syrian negotiations, while pessimistic regarding the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. End summary. UNCONCERNED BY SYRIAN DEPLOYMENT AT BORDER -------------------------- 2. (C) Visiting NEA DAS David Hale and the Ambassador, accompanied by EmbOffs, met with MP Michel Murr on October 7 at his home in Rabieh. Murr, whose son Elias is Defense Minister, was unconcerned about the recent Syrian troop buildup on the northern Lebanese-Syrian border. He thought that Syria intended to intimidate what he called the Sunni extremist Salafists, but would not actually cross into Lebanon. 3. (C) He added that a Syrian military incursion into Lebanon from the north would alarm Hizballah, because it anticipated that Israel would respond with a similar incursion into Lebanon from the south. Hale stressed that the U.S. would not accept a Syrian intervention in Lebanon. HIZBALLAH ATTEMPTS TO RECONCILE MURR AND AOUN -------------------------- 4. (C) Remarking that the spring 2009 parliamentary elections were occupying everyone's attention, Murr shared that Hizballah MP Mohammed Raad recently visited him in an attempt to reconcile Murr with his former ally, Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader Michel Aoun. Murr said that Hizballah had calculated that the March 8/FPM alliance would win 61 or 62 parliamentary seats out of 128 total seats in the parliament. Confident that he controls the eight seats in the Metn district, Murr speculated that Hizballah and Aoun are hoping to get those seats, and therefore a majority in parliament, through an alliance with Murr. Murr reportedly responded that while he harbors no ill will against Aoun, he preferred to "go it alone." MURR APPEALS TO MARCH 14 TO ACT AS A SINGLE UNIT -------------------------- 5. (C) Murr said that after the October 1 visit of MP Setrida Geagea, wife of Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, he was fully reconciled with Geagea who served prison time for attempting to assassinate him. Geagea reportedly had requested, through Setrida, to form a joint list with Murr for the Metn district. 6. (C) Murr said he had inquired of Geagea whether he was more interested in a March 14 victory or a single-seat gain for the Lebanese Forces. While Geagea purportedly stated his preference for a March 14 victory, Murr warned that March 14 would lose if each member acted out of self-interest. BEIRUT 00001454 002 OF 002 HARIRI WILL SOON MEET TASHNAQ -------------------------- 7. (C) Though Murr had detailed his grand elections strategy to the Ambassador in September (reftel), he insisted that he would not go public with his plan until February. Tweaking his strategy slightly, Murr reported that it was progressing along as he hoped. Having proposed to majority leader Saad Hariri his plan to form a Christian independent bloc, allied with both President Michel Sleiman and March 14 ("though," he stressed, "not a part of March 14"), Murr was pleased to report that Hariri agreed to allow for two seats in a Beirut Christian district to be designated for Armenian Tashnaq candidates. According to Murr, Hariri would meet Tashnaq when he returned to Lebanon with an eye toward some political agreement with it. 8. (C) Addressing another detail of his strategy, Murr said Sleiman advised him to present a list of eight candidates, rather than six, in the Metn district. (Note: Previously, Murr intended to form a list of six candidates in a ploy to separate Tashnaq from Aoun, a tactic obviated by Hariri's willingness to meet Tashnaq. End note.) "NATIONAL DIALOGUE CANNOT DISARM HIZBALLAH" -------------------------- 9. (C) Murr relayed that he was still advising Sleiman to delay the next session of the National Dialogue, currently scheduled for November 5, until January or February. Murr pointed out that the Dialogue was intended to address Hizballah's arms, but that Aoun nd Hizballah were preventing such a discussion. Murr speculated that if progress were made in the Israeli-Syrian negotiations, then the National Dialogue may have a better chance at disarming Hizballah. 10. (C) Hale responded that while the National Dialogue alone cannot disarm Hizballah, it provided an important venue for Lebanese political figures to talk about disarmament and he encouraged Murr to continue with a process that could help create a climate to pressure Hizballah. Murr agreed, but expressed his pessimism for results. HOPEFUL ABOUT ISRAELI- SYRIAN NEGOTIATIONS -------------------------- 11. (C) Murr said he did not believe progress would be made in the near future in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, but that the Israeli-Syrian negotiations offered him more hope. He said that Syria was interested in a U.S. role in the negotiations. Murr added that the Palestinian issue was important to Lebanese because the Palestinians possess weapons in Lebanon. Hale expressed his optimism about the Israeli-Palestinian track, noting the parties had made a lot of progress on key issues. The U.S. remains focused on that, he said. 12. (U) DAS Hale has cleared this cable. SISON |