LEBANON: LEBANESE GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS ON SYRIAN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001449

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR A/S HOOK AND PDAS WARLICK
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/MCDERMOTT
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER
OSD FOR EDELMAN/LONG/STRAUB/DALTON
JOINT STAFF FOR RANK/GARAVANTA
CENTCOM FOR ALLARDICE/MACLEAN/PADDOCK
DIA FOR LARSON/CRONIN/KRAUSE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/07/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR MCAP MARR IR LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: LEBANESE GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS ON SYRIAN
BORDER MOVEMENTS

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Defense Minister Elias Murr discussed recent reports
of Syrian troop deployments near the northern border of
Lebanon on October 6, but did not seem overly concerned with
this development. Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) Commander
General Jean Kahwagi was also present and indicated troop
positions on a map in the MinDef's office. The reported
purpose for these Syrian troops deployments is to combat
smuggling and to contain extremists in northern Lebanon that
might try to enter Syria, they said. Similarly, President
Sleiman and Prime Minister Siniora said they were not overly
concerned; Sleiman said he accepted the Syrians' explanation.
US statements warning Syria received wide media coverage on
October 7. End summary.


2. (SBU) The Ambassador and visiting DOD-State Joint
Military Commission team visited Minister of Defense Elias
Murr at his office in Yarze on Monday, October 6 (JMC covered
septel). Murr and LAF Commander Kahwagi discussed Syrian
troop movements near Lebanon's northern border with Syria.
Ambassador and DAS Hale also discussed this subject in
October 7 meetings with President Sleiman and PM Siniora.

WE SAW TANKS MOVING TO
BORDER YESTERDAY, 5 OCT
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3. (C) LAF G-2 (military intelligence) BH Fadel had informed
us late in the evening of October 5 that the LAF had observed
Syrian troop and tank movements on the Syrian side of the
border moving on the road from Homs. He provided no details
on numbers. He told DATT that the G-2 was "alert" to this
movement and that he understood that this deployment was
meant to "deal with extremist elements." The next morning,
DefMin Murr, asked about press reporting on Syrian military
movements towards the northern Lebanese border, told us that
this was indeed happening. Murr then turned to LAF Commander
Kahwagi and asked him to brief us on the details.


4. (C) Kahwagi used the topographical relief map hanging in
the MinDef's office to brief. Kahwagi said, "yesterday, we
saw lots of tanks moving to the border from Homs. We
followed them. This morning, we saw them spread all along
the border, two kilometers back in Syrian territory." While
explaining this, Kahwagi indicated, with his finger, a line
of deployment that began on the Mediterranean coast and went
to the easternmost corner of the northern border of Lebanon.


5. (C) Kahwagi also told us that he has spoken with Syrian
Chief of Staff General Habib to discuss this deployment.
According to Kahwagi, Habib stated that the deployment was to
prevent smuggling and to keep extremists in northern Lebanon
from escaping into Syria. Kahwagi then opined that the
Syrians do not want the terrorists in Tripoli to link up with
extremists in Syria. While the media is reporting 10,000
Syrian troops on the Lebanese border, Kahwagi does not think
this is accurate. Kahwagi told us that this type of
operation would require a large number of troops, possibly in
the range of two to three brigades, but not 10,000. Kahwagi
told us that his troops are already hearing small arms fire
on the Syrian side of the border suggesting that the Syrian
troops were already engaged in operations. (Privately,
Kahwagi, while not expressing particular concern about the
Syrian activities, told the Ambassador over the JMC lunch
that "Syria won't do anything if they know that you won't let
them".)

PRESIDENT SLEIMAN TALKING WITH DAMASCUS:
WE WILL NOT ACCEPT SYRIANS ENTERING LEBANON
--------------

BEIRUT 00001449 002 OF 003




6. (C) After Kahwagi completed his briefing, MinDef Murr told
us that President Sleiman was also aware and involved in this
matter. Murr related that Sleiman had spoken to Syrian
President Bashar Al-Asad on Sunday, October 5 to confirm that
this deployment fell within the framework of common border
security that he and Asad discussed during his trip to
Damascus. According to Murr, Asad responded in the
affirmative.


7. (C) Murr assessed that the Syrians are now concerned with
reaping the harvest they sowed in Lebanon meaning that the
Syrians recruited, trained and supported the extremists in
northern Lebanon. "Now the Syrians are trying to protect
themselves from the people that they have employed," said
Murr. Murr thought that the Turks could tell us more about
these Syrian military operations since the Turks are heavily
involved with the indirect talks between Syria and Israel.


8. (C) In any case, Murr assured us that President Asad has
assured Lebanon that the Syrian troops have no intention to
enter Lebanon. However, if they do enter Lebanon, "we will
defend ourselves," said Murr.

PRESIDENT SLEIMAN CONFIRMS TALKS WITH ASSAD
--------------


9. (C) Ambassador and DAS Hale met with President Michel
Sleiman on October 7. Sleiman said Kahwagi and Murr had told
him the Syrian troops were "not a danger." He confirmed that
he had spoken to Asad, who told him the troop deployment was
an effort to combat smuggling, which Sleiman said was in line
with his discussions with Asad in Damascus, as well as with
UNSCR 1701. Sleiman told us that he was taking this answer
from the Syrians at face value, and that Asad insisted he was
sincere in trying to help Lebanon.


10. (C) Sleiman said that after his September 25 meeting with
President Bush, he had pushed the Syrians about stopping
terrorists crossing the border and stopping arms smuggling.
Asad had responded positively, Sleiman said. Sleiman was
certain the Syrians will not enter Lebanon, and that he hoped
their presence would stop weapons smuggling. In response to
DAS Hale's question about why the Syrians only deployed to
the north, and not along their entire border with Lebanon,
Sleiman said that the Syrians had "a history" with the
northern border, through which Muslim Brotherhood extremists
came into Syria to fight the Syrian government in the 1980s.

PM SINIORA ALSO WEIGHS IN ON DISCUSSION
--------------

11.(C) Ambassador and DAS Hale also met with PM Siniora on
October 7. Siniora raised the issue of Syrian deployment in
an overall discussion of his concerns of late. &Nobody
thinks the Syrians have mobilized troops along the border for
actual deployment into Lebanon. The Syrians aren't that
stupid ) they know that the move would be unacceptable to
the international community, particularly in the Muslim
world," said Siniora.


12. (C) While they have said they are there to stop
smuggling, the Syrians typically aid the smugglers, said
Siniora. Somewhat ironically, Siniora mused, "They've said
they are afraid of extremists entering into Syria from
Lebanon ) but the reverse has historically been true,
especially with those we caught in Nahr Al Barid." Siniora
assesses that Syria is trying to intimidate the population in
the north and to magnify the real problems with conservative
fundamentalists that Lebanon has in the area. "They are
masters at highlighting a problem that ) it turns out )
only they can solve," said Siniora.

US COMMENTS ON SYRIAN ACTIVITY WIDELY COVERED

BEIRUT 00001449 003 OF 003


--------------


13. (C) Lebanese press reported prominently on October 7 the
comments by DAS Hale and the Department press spokesman
warning Syria that intervention in Lebanon is unacceptable,
and that recent bombings in Damascus and Tripoli cannot be
used as pretexts for hostile action against Lebanon.

COMMENT
--------------


14. (S) From our side of the border, we believe the GOL is
not overly alarmed by these reports at this time. We have
has no information that indicates there are any tanks in that
area or that the number of troops is anywhere close to
10,000, as press has reported.


15. (C) Some Lebanese political figures have expressed
concern to us, and their contacts in Washington, about the
Syrian activities. We have told our political contacts here
(including March 14 interlocutors) that we have made our
policy clear to the Syrians, both publicly and privately,
that any incursion into Lebanon would be unacceptable and
that we have seen no sign of the alleged 10,000 troops or
tanks. We will continue to cite the strong USG statements
directed at Syria and the absence of information suggesting
hostile Syrian intent. We recommend repeating the strong USG
statements if there is any indication of new or different
Syrian activity at the border. Although the Syrian military
activities may lead Lebanese authorities to decide they need
to take stronger action to deal with the violence in Tripoli,
we detect no movement toward that. End Comment.






SISON