LEBANON: MP MICHAEL MURR REVEALS HIS INDEPENDENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001391 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S HOOK, PDAS WARLICK P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: MP MICHAEL MURR REVEALS HIS INDEPENDENT BLOC STRATEGY TO DEFEAT AOUN Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Crafty, lifelong politician MP Michel Murr unveiled his still-secret strategy to defeat former ally and opposition-aligned Michel Aoun in the spring 2009 parliamentary elections. Murr confided to the Ambassador on September 22 that, with the green light from majority leader Saad Hariri and President Michel Sleiman, he will form an independent, "Christian-made" bloc. He described this bloc as separate from, but similar in principles to, March 14, and connected to Sleiman. Murr expressed his confidence in drawing the Armenian Tashnaq party away from Aoun by offering it seats on the Beirut-Ashrafieh list. ¶2. (C) Murr praised Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea's apology at his September 21 rally, adding that the two intended to meet soon. Murr anticipated that Sleiman will convene the National Dialogue another two or three times before parliamentary elections, but that the Dialogue would not accomplish much prior to a new U.S. administration taking office. End summary. INDEPENDENT, "CHRISTIAN-MADE" BLOC CONNECTED TO PRESIDENT -------------- ¶3. (C) On September 22, the Ambassador, accompanied by PolOff and LES Senior Political Advisor, met with MP Michel Murr in his Amaret Chalhoub office. Murr confided that he has been preparing to form a new independent parliamentary bloc that would stand alongside President Michel Sleiman. Murr, who parted with Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun's Change and Reform parliamentary bloc last April, stressed that his bloc will be separate from the March 14 alliance, but will adopt its principles. Noting that he was sharing his strategy with the Ambassador in strict confidence, Murr hinted that he would not go public until February. ¶4. (C) Murr predicted that the list he plans to compile for the spring 2009 parliamentary elections will appeal to Christian voters because it will not be perceived as a "Sunni-made" list, an accusation levied at times against March 14, which is composed of both Christians and Sunnis. Murr relayed that he had also discussed this strategy with Sunni March 14 leader Saad Hariri and Saudi Ambassador Abdel-Aziz Khoja and secured Hariri's endorsement. WINNING OVER TASHNAQ -------------- ¶5. (C) Critical to his strategy, Murr explained, was to entice the Armenian Tashnaq party away from its alliance with Aoun, which he intended to do in part by convincing Hariri to allow for two seats in Beirut-Ashrafieh to be designated for Tashnaq candidates. As for the Beirut-Ashrafieh list, Murr outlined his plan to have Nadim Gemayel (26 year old son of assassinated President Bachir Gemayel),Nayla Tueini (Murr's granddaughter and daughter of assassinated MP Gebran Tueini), and MP Michel Pharaon run on a list together with two Tashnaq candidates to win all five of its seats. ¶6. (C) To seal the Tashnaq deal, Murr said he planned to form a list of six candidates in the predominately Christian and Armenian Metn district and propose to Aoun that he name two candidates for this list. Murr anticipated that Aoun will reject this proposal out of a desire to name five or six of his own candidates. Murr speculated that Aoun's refusal would provide Tashnaq the justification it needed to break with Aoun, as it could claim that Aoun was thinking only of himself, rather than of reaching consensus with his allies. STRATEGY FOR EVERY DISTRICT -------------- ¶7. (C) Moving on to Baabda, Murr relayed that his son-in-law Edmond ("Mony") Gharios, who heads the Chiah municipality, will form a list with Hariri and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt. BEIRUT 00001391 002 OF 002 Murr expected that this list will win four of Baabda's six seats, with Hizballah picking up the remaining two seats. Murr estimated that the Sunni and Druze votes equal the number of Shia votes, and therefore he was counting on winning two-thirds of the Christian votes in order to win the four seats. ¶8. (C) Relaying that he had met with and seemingly influenced Sleiman three times in the last month or so, Murr reported he intends to push Sleiman (who Murr reported is currently reluctant) to proactively form lists in Kesarwan and Jbeil districts that can defeat Aoun. Murr suggested an alliance between former MP Mansour Ilbon, prominent industrialist Neemat Frem (who we note is reluctant to run),and Farid Haykal Khazen could pose a credible threat to Aoun in Kesarwan. SAUDIS OFFER MORE THAN IRANIANS, TO DATE -------------- ¶9. (C) Though he declared that he does not require money to implement his strategy, Murr said the Saudis are willing to provide up to USD 250 million to support his independent figures in the Christian areas. Conversely, he disclosed that the Iranians have allocated USD 20 million to assist Aoun. MURR AND GEAGEA TO MEET -------------- ¶10. (C) In another strategic, elections-oriented move, Murr praised Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea's remarks at his rally the previous day, during which Geagea apologized for "all the mistakes that were committed when we were carrying out our national duties during past civil war years." Murr said he also intended to make a public statement later the same day expressing his praise. Murr relayed that he plans to meet Geagea in the near future, a significant move given that Geagea was found guilty and sentenced to prison in part for attempting to kill Murr. NATIONAL DIALOGUE MAY MEET TWO MORE TIMES BEFORE ELECTIONS -------------- ¶11. (C) Recognizing that the next National Dialogue session, currently scheduled for November 5, could not have taken place sooner due to Sleiman's travels and Ramadan, Murr said he expected the Dialogue will convene again in January or February, and possibly one more time before the spring elections, but would not achieve results prior to the next U.S. administration taking office. ¶12. (C) Murr also said he advised the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to work with Hizballah to understand how its missiles operate. If Hizballah refuses, he mused, then it will be easier for the GOL to criticize the organization for not cooperating in building a strong state. SISON