LEBANON: MINISTER LAHOUD: WINNING ELECTIONS IS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001371 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S HOOK, PDAS WARLICK P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/16/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR EINV ZP LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: MINISTER LAHOUD: WINNING ELECTIONS IS NECESSARY TO PRESERVE STATUS QUO REF: A. BEIRUT 1358 ¶B. BEIRUT 1360 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) March 14 Minister of State Nassib Lahoud assured the Ambassador in a September 17 meeting that the March 14 alliance is aware that it must win the spring 2009 parliamentary elections "to preserve status quo," noting that a loss would worsen the situation in Lebanon. He spoke of potential economic development projects that March 14 could initiate prior to the elections, fostered by Gulf investments. Lahoud applauded President Michel Sleiman's focus on the national defense strategy in his opening remarks at the September 16 launch of the National Dialogue, yet expressed concern that expanding the agenda would draw focus away from Hizballah's weapons. Withholding comment on Druze leader Walid Jumblatt's reconciliation efforts with Hizballah, Lahoud noted that reconciliation in and of itself was not harmful. End summary. MARCH 14 NEEDS TO WIN THE ELECTIONS -------------- ¶2. (C) March 14 Minister of State Nassib Lahoud assured the Ambassador, accompanied by PolOff, in a September 17 meeting that the March 14 alliance does not face "major differences" among its members, but rather is united by the common challenge of winning the spring 2009 parliamentary elections. He said gravely, "If we (March 14) win the elections, then we will preserve status quo. If we lose, the situation will worsen." ¶3. (C) He explained that the alliance was planning to launch its 2009 election campaign formally in November, and in the meantime was working to identify candidates. He continued, "People here need to see unified lists with intelligent candidates." He relayed that March 14 may turn to independent candidates in areas where it will face strong competition. It remained unclear which direction independent MP Michel Murr and his deputies will go, he said, predicting that Murr will wait to decide on which list he will run. CONTEMPLATING DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS -------------- ¶4. (C) Lahoud suggested that March 14 do what it can to implement some large-scale development projects in advance of the elections, suggesting forming a public television network, developing coastal areas, establishing an economic free-zone in Tripoli, and starting technology cities throughout the country. ¶5. (C) Instead of soliciting Gulf countries for financial assistance, he reasoned, Lebanon should offer investment opportunities that will entice their involvement. He suggested Lebanon target Qatar, in particular, noting that Qatari interest will generate other Gulf interest in Lebanon. He added that Qatar, coupled with the UAE (which he complained was not doing enough for Lebanon),would be good candidates for providing defense assistance to Lebanon. NATIONAL DIALOGUE: A FOR SLEIMAN; OPPOSITION TRYING TO AVOID ARMS DISCUSSION -------------- ¶6. (C) Applauding President Michel Sleiman's opening remarks at the previous day's launch of the National Dialogue (Ref A),Lahoud said he appreciated Sleiman's prioritization of the national defense strategy. He said that Sleiman has a handful of intellectuals focused on the National Dialogue process, headed by Nazem Khoury. According to Lahoud, these advisors include Ghaleb Mahmasani, Walid Moubarak, Adnan Sayyed Hussein, and Ambassador Naji Abi Assi, who Lahoud remarked was "very good, thorough." BEIRUT 00001371 002 OF 002 ¶7. (C) Reporting that Agriculture Minister Elie Skaff had tried to add discussion on the Council for Development and Reconstruction (CDR) to the agenda, Lahoud concluded that the opposition is attempting to draw focus away from the defense strategy and Hizballah's weapons by flooding the agenda with irrelevant items. Acknowledging that the National Dialogue concept is open-ended and could continue indefinitely, Lahoud stressed that the topic of Hizballah's weapons is intended for the National Dialogue. There are other institutions such as the cabinet and parliament to handle other issues, he reasoned, and tackling Hizballah's weapons would only disable these other institutions. MOSTLY SILENT ON JUMBLATT'S RECONCILIATION WITH HIZBALLAH -------------- ¶8. (C) Commenting on the September 15 reconciliation meeting between representatives from Druze leader Walid Jumblatt's bloc and Hizballah (Ref B),Lahoud asked rhetorically why was it acceptable for reconciliation between Sunnis and Hizballah in Tripoli, but not between the Druze and Hizballah? Saying little else, Lahoud noted that the comments Jumblatt made to al-Akhbar about accommodating Hizballah did not differ much from what he heard Jumblatt was saying privately. SISON