LEBANON: ASSASSINATION OF OPPOSITION MEMBER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001352 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA, PM/FO ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S HOOK, WARLICK P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR ABRAMS/YERGER/MCDERMOTT/RAMCHAND E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS SY LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: ASSASSINATION OF OPPOSITION MEMBER TARGETS RECONCILIATION? REF: BEIRUT 1348 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The September 10 assassination of Saleh Aridi, a Druze opposition figure, is seen by many as an attempt to derail reconciliation efforts among Lebanon's political leaders. The immediate impact, however, appears to have been to solidify Druze solidarity, with rival party leaders standing side-by-side eulogizing the deceased, and, most surprisingly, meeting together with Hizballah to defuse mounting tensions. While some, including majority leader Saad Hariri, whose father's assassination is the catalyst for the Special Tribunal, are calling for UNIIIC to include the Aridi assassination in its long list of investigations, the GOL so far has not made the request to the UN. End summary. DRUZE OPPOSITION FIGURE TARGETED IN LATEST ATTACK -------------- ¶2. (C) On September 10, Saleh Aridi, a high-ranking member of the (Druze) opposition Lebanese Democratic Party and right-hand man of its leader, Minister of Youth and Sports Talal Arslan, was killed by a bomb placed in Aridi's car in Baysour, in the Aley region. The assassination ended a seven-month hiatus in the long string of attacks on political figures that began with the October 2004 failed attack against former (also Druze) Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) Minister Marwan Hamadeh. The last such attack killed ISF official Wissan Eid in January 2008. The Aridi killing was the first to target an opposition figure, the first since the May 2008 Doha agreement, and the first since Lebanon and Syria agreed to establish diplomatic relations. ¶3. (C) Aridi, one of Arslan's most trusted aides, was responsible for coordination between the Lebanese Democratic Party and Hizballah, with whom he reportedly had good relations. He was also a key figure in bringing Arslan and rival Druze leader Walid Jumblatt together following last May's violence in the predominantly Druze Chouf and Aley regions. ASSASSINATION TARGETS RECONCILIATION? -------------- ¶4. (C) With the Aridi assassination occurring two days after President Sleiman announced the September 16 launch of the National Dialogue, and shortly after majority leader Saad Hariri negotiated a reconciliation between Tripoli leaders to end the violence in the north, many view the attack as an attempt to derail reconciliation efforts. Jumblatt, hinting at Syrian involvement, said the attack demonstrated that Lebanon was at the mercy of foreign secret services. Targeting an opposition Druze figure, some believe, was a warning to Arslan following his reconciliation with Jumblatt. (Comment: In what could be construed as a response, Arslan met with opposition ally and Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun on September 15, declaring afterwards that, "I am allied with Aoun and Hizballah and I would not give up this alliance.") ¶5. (C) The attack seems to have spurred rather than discouraged reconciliation efforts, however. Jumblatt and other PSP leaders (including current Public Works Minister Ghazi Aridi, a distant cousin of the deceased) attended the September 12 funeral along with Arslan in a demonstration of Druze solidarity. Representatives of Arslan and Jumblatt again met with Hizballah members on September 15 (septel) in another reconciliation meeting, on the eve of the National Dialogue. GOL HAS NOT ASKED UNIIIC TO INVESTIGATE -------------- BEIRUT 00001352 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) Unlike previous assassinations, the GOL has not (at least yet) requested the UN to include the Aridi attack in the growing list of cases being investigated by UNIIIC, although majority leader Saad Hariri has advocated this. In a September 12 meeting with the Ambassador and DCM (reftel), however, UNIIIC Commissioner Daniel Bellemare noted similarities between some of the attacks, and indicated his intention to ask GOL authorities for information. PM Siniora and Arslan have called for the matter to be referred to the Judicial Council, Lebanon's highest judicial authority. SISON