LEBANON: BERRI SAYS EXPECT MORE RECONCILIATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001351 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S HOOK AND PDAS WARLICK P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR IS LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: BERRI SAYS EXPECT MORE RECONCILIATION BEFORE 2009 ELECTIONS Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In a September 15 meeting with the Ambassador, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri said he does not oppose increasing the list of agenda items for the upcoming National Dialogue, as long as they are pertinent and are related to the national defense strategy. Berri added that he expects more reconciliation efforts between opposing political parties in the run-up to parliamentary elections scheduled for spring 2009. He said the elections should not be postponed due to a lack of resources on the part of the Ministry of Interior and offered suggestions as to what electoral reforms he would like to see adopted. He noted that President Sleiman should bring up a number of topics with POTUS during their scheduled September 25 meeting, including enhanced USG assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces and the issue of Israeli overflights, as well as a water dispute between Lebanon and Israel. End Summary. NATIONAL DIALOGUE -------------- ¶2. (C) The Ambassador, accompanied by PolOff, met with the Speaker and MP Ali Bazzi at Berri's office in Ain el-Tineh on September 15. Berri said he does not oppose expanding the National Dialogue's agenda, but only if all participants agree to do so and if the purposed topic is "appropriate." He added that the national defense strategy (i.e., Hizballah's weapons) is the only required item that must be discussed during the dialogue. However, the national defense strategy, in Berri's view, can include military, security, economic, political, diplomatic and media-related issues. Berri noted that economic topics could revolve around whether the financial resources are available for the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to provide for the national defense. Purely economic issues not related to national defense can wait to be discussed in a more appropriate forum such as within the cabinet, the parliament, or the Socio-Economic Council, according to Berri. ¶3. (C) However, Berri reiterated that as long as there was consensus on the National Dialogue agenda by all participants, he would not object. Berri noted that he wants the National Dialogue to proceed quickly and added that there was no relationship between the dialogue and the planned spring 2009 parliamentary elections. He added that President Sleiman offered him the opportunity to address the Dialogue during its opening session on September 16, but Berri declined the offer. RECONCILIATION IS IN THE AIR -------------- ¶4. (C) Berri said majority leader Saad Hariri's recent trips to Tripoli and Bekaa helped settle differences between Sunni and Shia groups who have been battling each other the past several months in these areas. Berri mentioned that the September 10 assassination of opposition Druze political figure Saleh al-Aridi (septel) may complicate Hariri's efforts. He noted that many things will change in the coming months before the election date is set and alluded to the prospect of Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)/ Druze leader Walid Jumblatt's "reconciliation" with Hizballah. Berri said starting today, such reconciliations should not come as a surprise. (Note: Later that same day, representatives of Jumblatt sat down with representatives of Hizballah and others. In addition, majority leader Hariri gave a broad hint to the Ambassador in their meeting on September 13 that he would meet with Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah. End Note.) ELECTIONS ADMINISTRATION BEIRUT 00001351 002 OF 003 -------------- ¶5. (C) In response to press reports that the elections may be postponed due to the Ministry of Interior's lack of resources in administering the elections, Berri said he preferred for the elections be held on time in spring 2009. He also added that he believes no one supports delaying the elections because both sides believe they will win. He said there is still time for the new election law to be drafted and that a new law would only need to be voted on before January 2009, in order to give the MPs time to prepare for their individual campaigns. He noted that the draft electoral law would be submitted to the parliament before September 25 (parliament's next plenary session),most likely on September 23. However, Bazzi noted that at a meeting he had earlier in the day with Minister of Interior Ziyad Baroud, Baroud told him that logistics and security would pose a problem to facilitating one day elections (just as Baroud has told us). BERRI SUPPORT ELECTORAL REFORM -------------- ¶6. (C) Berri said he supported reforms such as adding a magnetic strip to ID cards to ensure citizens vote one time. Berri also noted that he would like to see a reform in the rule that requires citizens to vote in the district where their father was born. Berri wants voters to be allowed to vote in the district in which they live. He said it costs around $1.5 million to bus around 200,000 citizens from the south of the country to Beirut to vote in their fathers' districts. This type of system allows those who provide transport to exert influence over their passengers, by asking the voter to repay for the service by voting the way the transporter wants, according to Berri. He stressed that whichever electoral law is passed will be weak without this reform. ¶7. (C) Berri added that he supports lowering the voter age to 18, a reform about which Christian politicians are leery. He also supported allowing for overseas voting, saying that if he and his colleagues in the opposition supported this reform, the Christians would have to support lowering the voter age. (Note: It is widely believed here that possible overseas voters are disproportionally Christian and possible younger voters aged 18-25 disproportionally Shia. However, there is no statistical evidence to support this. In addition, NGO contacts tell us most 18-25 year old Muslims are registered to vote in majority Muslin districts and similarly overseas Christians voters would vote in majority Christian areas. End Note.) HUSSEIN HUSSEINI SUPPORTS PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION -------------- ¶8. (C) At a separate meeting, former Speaker of Parliament and recently resigned Shia MP Hussein Husseini told the Ambassador on September 15 that the only resolution to Lebanon,s political crisis is to create a new system of proportional representation and preferential vote in parliament. (Proportional representation is the idea whereby the number of seats allotted to each list of candidates in a district is directly proportional to the percentage of votes obtained by that list of candidates. In addition, the preferential vote would be the mechanism through which voters specify their favored candidate from those on the list.) Husseini, speaking at his home, said the May 2008 Doha Agreement did not address the underlying electoral system when it supported changes to Lebanon,s electoral district mapping. In his view, an electoral law that is based on a majority system (i.e., candidate lists that garner 50.1 percent of votes obtain all of the seats for that district) is insufficient and will only lead to civil war. The parliament is scheduled to vote on a new electoral law on September 25. BEIRUT 00001351 003 OF 003 SLEIMAN TRIP TO DC -------------- ¶9. (C) Berri noted the good relationship between the U.S. and Lebanon, but said he wanted president Sleiman to bring up with President Bush that the U.S. needs to support the LAF with more advanced offensive weapons and training. He asserted that this would be difficult because Israel has a "veto" on any weapons provided to the LAF from the USG. Berri said he understood the strategic relationship between the U.S. and Israel, but noted that, "The U.S. has another friend in the region, Lebanon." Berri said the LAF is quite weak and that it needs more weapons and training, and that if it had better resources it might not have lost so many troops during the summer 2007 Nahr al-Barid fight. ¶10. (C) Berri also noted Sleiman should raise with the President the continuing violations of Lebanon's airspace by Israeli fighter planes, and added that the overflights violate UNSCR 1701, as well as the 1949 Armistice between Lebanon and Israel, which states that neither country would violate the other's land, air, or sea space. In addition, he noted that there are water shortages in south Lebanon as a result of Israel was stealing water from the Wazzani river, which Berri claimed was in Lebanese territory. Lebanon receives a small portion of the water, but Berri said Sleiman should ask the President to ask the Israelis to give up more of the river to the Lebanese living in the south. PEACE PLAN WITH ISRAEL FAR OFF -------------- ¶11. (C) Berri continued that he supported the 2002 Saudi peace initiative but that now is not the time. Berri did not believe that such a deal could be achieved now, mainly because of the change in the U.S. administration and because of the elections for a replacement to outgoing Israeli PM Ehud Olmert. Berri added that it was in Syria's interests to talk to Israel, but balked at the idea that Lebanon would have direct talks with Israel anytime soon, noting that Lebanon would be the last Arab country to make peace with Israel. He did highlight that Lebanon was currently having indirect talks with Israel as a part of the tripartite meetings between Israeli Defense Force (IDF) officials, UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) Commanding General Claudio Graziano, and the LAF, represented by LAF G-2 Brigadier General Abdul-Rahman Shehaitly. SISON