LEBANON: NEA DAS HALE URGES THAT PRESIDENT SLEIMAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001286 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S HOOK, PDAS WARLICK P FOR HMUSTAPHA AND RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR ABRAMS/YERGER/MCDERMOTT/RAMCHAND DOD/OSD FOR ASD LONG E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/12/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE MARR MOPS SY SUBJECT: LEBANON: NEA DAS HALE URGES THAT PRESIDENT SLEIMAN VISIT WASHINGTON Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) NEA DAS David Hale, accompanied by DCM and Poloffs, stressed to two of President Michel Sleiman's senior staff and an unofficial advisor the importance of Sleiman visiting Washington before or after his address to the UNGA in September. For their part, the advisors expressed concerns about regional tensions, stressed the need to strengthen the army, and suggested varying approaches to the 2009 parliamentary elections. End summary. ATTACKS AGAINST ARMY, APPOINTMENT OF ARMY COMMANDER SET STAGE FOR HALE VISIT -------------- ¶2. (C) During DAS Hale's August 26 - 31 visit to Lebanon, he reaffirmed U.S. support to Lebanon, including expanding military training and equipment assistance. He communicated to his interlocutors U.S. concern regarding the flow of weapons to Hizballah and the need for full implementation of UNSCR 1701. In addition, he solicited suggestions from Lebanese moderates on how the U.S. could be of assistance in the run-up to the 2009 parliamentary elections. NAZEM KHOURY, POLITICAL ADVISOR -------------- ¶3. (C) Nazem Khoury, political advisor and a close personal friend of President Sleiman now on Sleiman's staff, told DAS Hale that he had advised Sleiman it was important to visit Washington. However, Khoury expressed concern that Sleiman is in a delicate position. For the U.S. visit to be successful, Sleiman could not be "cornered," he said. ¶4. (C) Khoury characterized Lebanon as the weakest state in the region. He complained that Lebanon has been used as the instrument of others, but has received no benefit. Khoury said his personal opinion was that a strong army is important to the future of Lebanon and requested assistance. While not asking for missiles, he said, the LAF needs a sufficient and appropriate supply of weapons to pose a threat to Hizballah and others. ¶5. (C) On the elections, Khoury believed the majority March 14 coalition needs to be "very clever" in its approach. He said March 14 requires organization and to needs to re-energize Otherwise, he predicted, the opposition would win under the present circumstances. DAS Hale called Khoury's prediction troubling; and, said the international community needs to think clearly about what it can do to assist moderates in the 2009 elections. He informed Khoury that the U.S. is willing to help in any way that is productive to ensure free and transparent elections. NAJI ABI ASSI, DIPLOMATIC AND POLITICAL ADVISOR -------------- ¶6. (C) Naji Abi Assi, Diplomatic and Political Advisor to President Sleiman, told DAS Hale on August 28, that he worried an increase in regional tensions, such as between Israel and Iran, would have a direct effect on Lebanon more so than Lebanon's parliamentary elections or other domestic issues. He also called potential for violence between Hamas and Fatah in the West Bank worrisome if it were to incite violence in Lebanon's Palestinian camps. Abi Assi said the GOL is concerned about its relations with SAUDI Arabia and Syria, and is watching closely U.S. relations with Syria. He suggested progress on resolving the issue of Sheba'a Farms could reduce factional tensions in Lebanon. ¶7. (C) Abi Assi argued it was not enough to only talk with BEIRUT 00001286 002 OF 003 the leaders of the moderate political parties, but to take care that perceptions -- such as the perception that the U.S. did nothing to help Georgia in its conflict with Russia -- do not become reality. Abi Assi said there is also a perception that the U.S. would tacitly accept Syrian troops returning to Lebanon to quell violence in Tripoli, a perception which, he said, would negatively impact the outcome of the elections for the government. DAS Hale said while the U.S. had not intervened militarily in the Georgia-Russia conflict, there were several steps being taken bilaterally and through NATO to show U.S. disapproval and dissatisfaction to Russia for its actions. He also expressed concern about ongoing violence in Tripoli and advised Lebanese moderate factions increase their outreach there to counter an apparent shift to more extreme thinking by some among the electorate. Furthermore, DAS Hale explained that U.S. engagement with Syria remains limited until Syria shows it is serious about stemming the flow of weapons across its borders and showing mutual respect for Lebanon, as well as ending objectionable support for terrorists operating from Iraq to Israel. ¶8. (C) Abi Assi said he does not know his new boss Sleiman well. He called Sleiman moderate, neutral and positive. Abi Assi assessed the relationship between Sleiman, Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri as a good one and not tense. However, he said everyone is watching Sleiman, but no one is giving him any real political support. Abi Assi believed it was important for Sleiman to visit Washington in September and said that he would accompany him. MICHEL KHOURY, UNOFFICIAL ADVISOR? -------------- ¶9. (C) On August 30, DAS Hale met with Sheikh Michel Khoury, a prominent businessman and son of Lebanon's first President, who said that President Sleiman consults with him often. Khoury called Sleiman brave and said Sleiman is trying to do his best, although his power is minimal. Khoury advocated strong U.S. support to Sleiman personally, to strengthen his role as an arbitrator between the government's factions. ¶10. (C) Khoury said that at 82 years old, his own health is better than the health of the Lebanon. He pessimistically said that Lebanon had moved beyond a point where the Lebanese could resolve their own problems. However, he believed that a small window of opportunity exists due to the election of President Sleiman, the upcoming parliamentary elections in 2009, and the participation of State Minister Nassib Lahoud, Prime Minister Siniora, and Minister of Finance Mohammad Chatah in government. However, he warned that these ministers are surrounded by others who are either too weak or too hostile to significantly improve the political situation. The National Dialogue, in Khoury's opinion, would have little impact. ¶11. (C) The most important assistance the U.S. could provide, Khoury said, would be to strengthen the LAF. He noted that morale among the LAF is low and Khoury was concerned that confessional ties within the army were stronger than nationalistic sentiment. Khoury argued that assistance to the LAF and Sleiman should be substantial enough to counter Hizballah's arguments to maintain "the resistance." DAS Hale agreed with Khoury that the LAF is an important institution that needs to be bolstered. To this end, he said, the U.S. is preparing to make decisions about new equipment and training assistance to the LAF that could be delivered over the short- and long-term. ¶12. (C) In addition, Khoury suggested the U.S. provide support, openly or secretly, to the March 14 coalition. He believed Sleiman and March 14 could gain greater representation in Keserwan, the Metn, Beirut, and, to a certain extent, Zahle districts if it attracts enough Christian votes. The Armenian vote will also be key, he said. Khoury characterized Sunni and March 14 leader Saad Hariri as popular, but said March 14 lacks organization. DAS BEIRUT 00001286 003 OF 003 Hale said he had a good MEETING with the March 14 secretariat on August 28 and was encouraged by the progress in their organization. However, he cautioned March 14 leaders of the necessity of putting national interest ahead of personal interest in the run-up to the 2009 elections. Khoury also called SAUDI financial support to Hariri no match for Iranian financial support to Hizballah and Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun. Khoury noted that he maintains good relations with Sleiman and Hariri and offered to help in any way that he could. ¶13. (U) DAS Hale has cleared this message. SISON