LEBANON: JUMBLATT DESCRIBES TO DAS HALE MARCH 14'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001283 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S HOOK AND PDAS WARLICK USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR ABRAMS/YERGER/MCDERMOTT/RAMCHAND E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/30/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: JUMBLATT DESCRIBES TO DAS HALE MARCH 14'S DISUNITY, WORRIES ABOUT WEAK ARMY Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and his advisors told NEA DAS David Hale that March 14 was united, before giving multiple examples of disagreements among the bloc's party leaders. He had little confidence that the National Dialogue would begin until after Ramadan and perhaps even Ashura. He saw no wedge in the relationship between Michel Aoun and Hizballah. ¶2. (C) Jumblatt worried that domestic Sunni as well as foreign funding for Salafist groups would lead to more intense violence in Tripoli in north Lebanon. He expressed concerns about the capabilities of the army, and suggested there was little chance it could be successful in stopping the arms flow to Hizballah across the Syrian border. Jumblatt also said that another Israeli military "adventure" in Lebanon would not work. End summary. MARCH 14 UNITY? MAYBE NOT; NATIONAL DIALOGUE STALLED -------------- ¶3. (C) Visiting NEA DAS David Hale, accompanied by Ambassador, NEA/ELA Lebanon Desk Officer, and PolOffs had lunch with Walid Jumblatt, MP Marwan Hamadeh, Minister of State Wael Abou Faour, and MP Henri Helou on August 28. DAS Hale asked Jumblatt if March 14 leaders were united in their approach to the spring 2009 parliamentary elections. Jumblatt replied quickly, "We are united," and then paused, "...but it is important to study carefully the nominees we put forward, especially in Christian areas. We need serious people there, not cronies of Amine and Samir," he said, referring to Kataeb leader Amine Gemayel and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea. Jumblatt said he had met recently with Geagea to work out how they two would divide seats in certain districts, but he said Geagea was upset with Gemayel for insisting on running his son Sami (who is in his 20s) for a seat, and disagreed with him on candidates in several districts. Jumblatt also explained that Kataeb had lost elections in the past by not spending enough money on them. "Amine has two problems," he said, "his son and his cheapness. To be a miser is a sickness." 
¶4. (C) Jumblatt also pointed to the selection of a new commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) as a source of tension in March 14. He said sarcastically that he had spoken to Saad Hariri by telephone and they had discussed "this great general who will lead us to victory." Jumblatt explained that he had supported the nomination of Georges Khoury, the current G-2 Director of Military Intelligence, for the commander slot. "I know him," he said. "He was decent to me. But then all my partners (Hariri) came up with (General Jean) Kahwagi behind my back." Jumblatt acknowledged that Kahwagi would become the new LAF commander, but said he would not vote for him or support him. (Note: The Cabinet approved Kahwagi's appointment August 29. Jumblatt's two ministers expressed "reservations" on the appointment, as did Geagea's. End note.) ¶5. (C) Jumblatt said that no Lebanese politicians, either from March 14 or the opposition, seemed in a hurry to begin the National Dialogue, and that he did not expect it to begin until after Ramadan, and perhaps even after the Shia holiday Ashura, which would be in January. Jumblatt advisor and former Telecom Minister Marwan Hamadeh said that opposition attempts to expand the agenda for the Dialogue amounted to canceling the Council of Ministers: "What is the cabinet for if everything is discussed in the National Dialogue?" he asked. ¶6. (C) Looking at the opposition, Jumblatt thought the alliance between Michel Aoun and Hizballah was permanent. DAS Hale asked if Aoun's Maronite supporters could not be convinced he is wrong. Hamadeh answered that in theory all the Maronites are with March 14, but they are blinded by Aoun. Jumblatt added a historical perspective: "It will not BEIRUT 00001283 002 OF 002 be the first time a Christian leader in Lebanon leads Christians to destruction. Think of the Gemayels, of Geagea." A DANGEROUS GAME IN TRIPOLI -------------- ¶7. (C) DAS Hale brought up the recent violence in Tripoli in north Lebanon, and asked if Jumblatt had heard anything about where funding for Salafist groups there was coming from. He stressed that attempting to buy the allegiance of such groups was dangerous. Jumblatt said he knew that several Sunni politicians were funding these groups, including Saad Hariri, Najib Mikati, and Mohammed Safadi, as well as foreigners. He said he too was concerned, since the Alawite groups in the north, with whom the Sunni groups have clashed, are supported by Syria. "We should not give a pretext to Syria by funding Salafis," said Jumblatt, and he added that he had told visiting Egyptian FM Ahmed Aboul Gheit that outsiders should stop funding them as well. LAF SCATTERED, ISRAELIS ALARMED -------------- ¶8. (C) Jumblatt mentioned that there was discussion of moving a brigade of LAF soldiers from the south to the north to secure Tripoli and the surrounding areas, but he worried this would create a vacuum in the south, where troops already have only limited control because of Hizballah's presence. He said UNIFIL Commander Graziano was upset at the suggestion. ¶9. (C) DAS Hale asked Jumblatt how the GOL and LAF could contribute to stopping the flow of arms to Hizballah across the Syrian border. "Convince the Syrians," he replied. Hamadeh agreed, saying that the Lebanese army cannot even control feuds between the Lebanese, much less stop Syrian or Hizballah smugglers. As for UN troops, Hamadeh referred to UNIFIL as a "moral instrument" in the south, but said, "they are basically tourists in the area." ¶10. (C) Hale told Jumblatt and his advisors Israeli civilian and military officials alike are alarmed by Hizballah's rearming and the perception of creeping Hizballah control over the state. He said the Israelis saw no effort to implement UNSCR 1701, and were upset by the recent ministerial statement's support for "resistance" to Israel. Jumblatt replied, "They need to know that another military adventure will lead nowhere. The weapons come from Iran through Syria. You tell me what they should do." ¶11. (U) DAS Hale has cleared this cable. SISON