LEBANON: HIZBALLAH WELCOMING OR SABOTAGING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001223 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S HOOK AND PDAS WARLICK USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/MCDERMOTT E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: HIZBALLAH WELCOMING OR SABOTAGING NATIONAL DIALOGUE? REF: A. BEIRUT 1160 ¶B. BEIRUT 1170 BEIRUT 1220 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. William Grant for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Publicly, Hizballah officials are welcoming the upcoming National Dialogue. At the same time, however, Hizballah officials and their opposition allies are seeking an expansion of both the participation list and agenda in what we view as an attempt to dilute the process and steer the focus away from Hizballah's arms. They proposed to include more pro-Syria sympathizers and to add discussions of "building a strong state" and improving the economy in addition to the already agreed topic of national defense strategy. Prime Minister Fouad Siniora denounced Hizballah's suggestions, saying they would lead to a "Tower of Babel". As always, Hizballah's strategy is to appear accommodating and as a positive force in the national unity government, while strategizing to protect its interests. End summary. READY TO PARTICIPATE IN NATIONAL DIALOGUE... -------------- ¶2. (C) Hizballah officials have been making public statements welcoming the upcoming National Dialogue, to be chaired by President Sleiman, and expressing their commitment to participating. Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, in an August 14 televised speech commemorating the end of the July-August 2006 war, stressed the need to "prepare for the National Dialogue and hold it as soon as possible." At an August 17 lecture, Hizballah Deputy SYG Sheikh Naim Qassem reaffirmed Nasrallah's position, saying, "We will go to the dialogue conference and participate earnestly and actively in it." (Note: Nasrallah participated in the 2006 National Dialogue with other leaders of main political parties, but will not participate publicly in the upcoming one. He has eschewed public appearances since the 2006 war with Israel, apparently out of the fear of assassination. Minister of Labor Mohammed Fneish will lead the Hizballah delegation. March 14 ministers and contacts tell us that Fneish is a smart, savvy negotiator. End note.) ...BUT FIRST, EXPAND THE PARTICIPATION... -------------- ¶3. (C) In what clearly is an orchestrated effort, several opposition ministers have recently began calling for an expansion of the National Dialogue membership from its original 14 members. Opposition ministers Elie Skaff (agriculture),Issam Abou Jamra (deputy prime minister) and Talal Arslan (youth and sports) all promoted the idea during Charge Grant's recent courtesy calls (Refs A, B, C). They suggest adding former presidents, prime ministers, and persons with significant public support, such as former MP and minister Suleiman Franjieh, head of the Marada party. In a public statement, Arslan suggested that the National Dialogue have an equal number of opposition March 8/Aoun and majority March 14 representatives, rather than the current situation where the majority has more representation than the opposition. ...THEN, A FEW MORE AGENDA ITEMS -------------- ¶4. (C) All parties have agreed that the National Dialogue will include a discussion of defense strategy for Lebanon, a topic that would include Hizballah's role. In Nasrallah's August 14 speech, he said that the National Dialogue should include two other agenda items, "building a strong state" in accordance with the Taif agreement and "economic, financial, social, and living conditions." ¶5. (C) Deputy SYG Qassem mirrored Nasrallah's statement, calling on August 17 for the inclusion of economic issues and BEIRUT 00001223 002 OF 002 "the mechanism to implement previous resolutions adopted at the National Dialogue table." He stressed that "there are a number of major issues, and not one issue only, that should be dealt with." MARCH 14 OPPOSES HIZBALLAH'S SUGGESTIONS -------------- ¶6. (C) Prime Minister Fouad Siniora responded to Hizballah's remarks by saying, "The National Dialogue has a sole and clearly defined topic. . . that is the defense strategy." He warned to the press that expanding the list of participants and the agenda would only result in a "Tower of Babel," implying that there would be too many diverse views represented to allow progress. Siniora further explained that addressing these other issues would impinge upon the purview of constitutional institutions, asking rhetorically, "What would then be the role of the cabinet and of parliament?" ¶7. (C) The majority March 14 alliance has insisted that the participation be limited to the original 14 members. Further, we understand that President Sleiman preferred to keep the participation as it was. COMMENT: ANALYZING HIZBALLAH'S AGENDA -------------- 8.(C) Hizballah is taking tactical steps to both improve its public image and protect its interests. It is promoting itself as an open-minded contributing party in the national unity government through steps such as its recently-launched regional public relations campaign (Ref C). But Hizballah also has changed its tactic regarding a discussion on its arms. On May 29, Deputy SYG Qassem stated Hizballah's willingness to "discuss the role of the resistance, weapons, and all related issues within the framework of the National Dialogue." In the August 14 speech, in contrast, Nasrallah was not as forthcoming about the National Dialogue addressing the arms issue, focusing instead on the other agenda items Hizballah seeks to add: building the state and economic issues. ¶9. (C) Hizballah's strategy today is to extend its hand in such a way that it is certain the majority will not accept, while all the time appearing earnest. Hizballah is framing its additional requests not as conditions, but as helpful suggestions (addressing the "disaster" of an economy) which no one can refuse. The ultimate goal, we presume, is to dilute the National Dialogue both in terms of substance and participation to such an extent that the issue of its arms remains untouched. End comment. GRANT