LEBANON: HIZBALLAH WELCOMING OR SABOTAGING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001223

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S HOOK AND PDAS WARLICK
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/MCDERMOTT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: HIZBALLAH WELCOMING OR SABOTAGING
NATIONAL DIALOGUE?

REF: A. BEIRUT 1160

B. BEIRUT 1170 BEIRUT 1220

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. William Grant for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Publicly, Hizballah officials are welcoming the
upcoming National Dialogue. At the same time, however,
Hizballah officials and their opposition allies are seeking
an expansion of both the participation list and agenda in
what we view as an attempt to dilute the process and steer
the focus away from Hizballah's arms. They proposed to
include more pro-Syria sympathizers and to add discussions of
"building a strong state" and improving the economy in
addition to the already agreed topic of national defense
strategy. Prime Minister Fouad Siniora denounced Hizballah's
suggestions, saying they would lead to a "Tower of Babel".
As always, Hizballah's strategy is to appear accommodating
and as a positive force in the national unity government,
while strategizing to protect its interests. End summary.

READY TO PARTICIPATE
IN NATIONAL DIALOGUE...
--------------


2. (C) Hizballah officials have been making public statements
welcoming the upcoming National Dialogue, to be chaired by
President Sleiman, and expressing their commitment to
participating. Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah,
in an August 14 televised speech commemorating the end of the
July-August 2006 war, stressed the need to "prepare for the
National Dialogue and hold it as soon as possible." At an
August 17 lecture, Hizballah Deputy SYG Sheikh Naim Qassem
reaffirmed Nasrallah's position, saying, "We will go to the
dialogue conference and participate earnestly and actively in
it." (Note: Nasrallah participated in the 2006 National
Dialogue with other leaders of main political parties, but
will not participate publicly in the upcoming one. He has
eschewed public appearances since the 2006 war with Israel,
apparently out of the fear of assassination. Minister of
Labor Mohammed Fneish will lead the Hizballah delegation.
March 14 ministers and contacts tell us that Fneish is a
smart, savvy negotiator. End note.)

...BUT FIRST, EXPAND
THE PARTICIPATION...
--------------


3. (C) In what clearly is an orchestrated effort, several
opposition ministers have recently began calling for an
expansion of the National Dialogue membership from its
original 14 members. Opposition ministers Elie Skaff
(agriculture),Issam Abou Jamra (deputy prime minister) and
Talal Arslan (youth and sports) all promoted the idea during
Charge Grant's recent courtesy calls (Refs A, B, C). They
suggest adding former presidents, prime ministers, and
persons with significant public support, such as former MP
and minister Suleiman Franjieh, head of the Marada party. In
a public statement, Arslan suggested that the National
Dialogue have an equal number of opposition March 8/Aoun and
majority March 14 representatives, rather than the current
situation where the majority has more representation than the
opposition.

...THEN, A FEW
MORE AGENDA ITEMS
--------------


4. (C) All parties have agreed that the National Dialogue
will include a discussion of defense strategy for Lebanon, a
topic that would include Hizballah's role. In Nasrallah's
August 14 speech, he said that the National Dialogue should
include two other agenda items, "building a strong state" in
accordance with the Taif agreement and "economic, financial,
social, and living conditions."


5. (C) Deputy SYG Qassem mirrored Nasrallah's statement,
calling on August 17 for the inclusion of economic issues and

BEIRUT 00001223 002 OF 002


"the mechanism to implement previous resolutions adopted at
the National Dialogue table." He stressed that "there are a
number of major issues, and not one issue only, that should
be dealt with."

MARCH 14 OPPOSES
HIZBALLAH'S SUGGESTIONS
--------------


6. (C) Prime Minister Fouad Siniora responded to Hizballah's
remarks by saying, "The National Dialogue has a sole and
clearly defined topic. . . that is the defense strategy." He
warned to the press that expanding the list of participants
and the agenda would only result in a "Tower of Babel,"
implying that there would be too many diverse views
represented to allow progress. Siniora further explained
that addressing these other issues would impinge upon the
purview of constitutional institutions, asking rhetorically,
"What would then be the role of the cabinet and of
parliament?"


7. (C) The majority March 14 alliance has insisted that the
participation be limited to the original 14 members.
Further, we understand that President Sleiman preferred to
keep the participation as it was.

COMMENT: ANALYZING
HIZBALLAH'S AGENDA
--------------

8.(C) Hizballah is taking tactical steps to both improve its
public image and protect its interests. It is promoting
itself as an open-minded contributing party in the national
unity government through steps such as its recently-launched
regional public relations campaign (Ref C). But Hizballah
also has changed its tactic regarding a discussion on its
arms. On May 29, Deputy SYG Qassem stated Hizballah's
willingness to "discuss the role of the resistance, weapons,
and all related issues within the framework of the National
Dialogue." In the August 14 speech, in contrast, Nasrallah
was not as forthcoming about the National Dialogue addressing
the arms issue, focusing instead on the other agenda items
Hizballah seeks to add: building the state and economic
issues.


9. (C) Hizballah's strategy today is to extend its hand in
such a way that it is certain the majority will not accept,
while all the time appearing earnest. Hizballah is framing
its additional requests not as conditions, but as helpful
suggestions (addressing the "disaster" of an economy) which
no one can refuse. The ultimate goal, we presume, is to
dilute the National Dialogue both in terms of substance and
participation to such an extent that the issue of its arms
remains untouched. End comment.
GRANT