LEBANON: CONSPIRACY THEORIES AND CONDEMNATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001198

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S OOK, PDAS WARLICK
P FOR HMUSTAPHA AND RRANGASWAM
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/MCDERMOTT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE MARR MOPS SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: CONSPIRACY THEORIES AND CONDEMNATIONS
ABOUND AFTER AUGUST 13 BOMBING

REF: IIR 6 857 0335 08

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. William Grant for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) Leaders from across Lebanon's political spectrum
condemned the August 13 civilian bus bombing in the northern
city of Tripoli that resulted in the deaths of several
Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) soldiers, among others. So far,
no group has claimed responsibility for the attack. Several
theories are circulating among the GOL and political
analysts. The most widely discussed theory is the attack
specifically targeted the LAF in an attempt to highlight the
weaknesses of the military and the state to maintain security
throughout Lebanon.


2. (U) President Sleiman called the event an "atrocious
criminal act," while Prime Minister Siniora affirmed the GOL
would not be lax in pursuing the perpetrators, saying "the
strongest weapon is the weapon of our unity as Lebanese."
These sentiments were echoed in similar statements from March
14, March 8/Aoun supporters, Tripoli's political leaders, and
religious figures. Likewise, many in the international
community expressed their condemnations and condolences
including the U.S., UN, EU, Arab League, France, Saudi
Arabia, and Syria. Siniora declared August 14 a day of
national mourning. End summary.

LAF TARGETED IN TRIPOLI
--------------


3. (U) During the morning rush hour on August 13, a civilian
bus carrying civilian and LAF passengers exploded in a busy
commercial district in the northern city of Tripoli. A final
casualty count has not been released; press reports indicate
as many as 18 people were killed, including at least nine LAF
soldiers, and at least 40 more people were injured.
According to a statement released by the LAF, the explosion
occurred in an area transited frequently by military
personnel en route to other duty stations. The LAF called
the incident a "terrorist bombing," although no person or
group has yet claimed responsibility. The incident is the
deadliest attack on the LAF since the death of 170 soldiers
fighting Fatah al Islam insurgents at the Nahr al Bared
Palestinian refugee camp in Tripoli in the spring of 2007.

CONSPIRACY THEORIES ABOUND
--------------


4. (U) The attack came one day after the August 12
parliamentary vote of confidence for the unity government and
coincided with the August 13-14 visit of President Michel
Sleiman to Syria (Sleiman departed on schedule several hours
after the morning attack). Some of the initial theories
included Syria covertly planning the attack to embarrass
Sleiman and show Lebanon's need for Syria, or to give Syrian
President Asad influence over Sleiman's choice for LAF
commander. Another theory posits Saudi Arabia being linked
to the attack in an attempt to embarrass Syria.
Alternatively, some have suggested the Tripoli attack is
retaliation against the LAF for its role in Nahr al Bared
(NAB); in particular retaliation by Fatah al Islam
extremists, whose attack on the LAF provoked the NAB battle.


5. (C) Ambassador Naji Abi Assi, Diplomatic Advisor to
Sleiman, told Pol/Econ Chief on August 13 he did not believe
Syria was behind the attack. He argued that the Syrians
wanted the Damascus summit to be a success and would not have
instigated such an attack one day before the meeting.
However, the Saudis might have reason to embarrass Syria, he
said, but deemed this too strong an action for Saudi Arabia.
Therefore, Abi Assi blamed Islamic extremists for the attack,
although he could not explain why they would take such an
action now. (Comment: Abi Assi, as diplomatic advisor to the
president, is unlikely to criticize Syria in our presence.
End comment.)


BEIRUT 00001198 002 OF 003



6. (C) A widely discussed theory is that the perpetrators of
the attack wanted to expose weaknesses in the military and
the state to control and maintain security throughout
Lebanon. Analysts point to the December 2007 assassination
of General Francois Hajj, who commanded the LAF operations
during the NAB conflict, and the January 2008 assassination
of Internal Security Forces (ISF) Major Wissam Eid, one of
the leading security investigators of previous political
assassinations in Lebanon, as signs of distress within
Lebanon's security apparatus, including the LAF and ISF.
Analysts say these events are critical reminders of the need
for a strong LAF commander, who we expect will be appointed
sometime the week of August 18 by the new cabinet.


7. (C) Others analysts suggest the attack was designed to
provoke a heavy-handed response from the LAF. Such a
response, the theory goes, could fuel additional violence by
Sunni extremists and cause a split in the Sunni political
block led by Saad Hariri. Such occurrences would weaken the
strength of Hariri and the March 14 coalition in the north
and deliver 2009 electoral victories to pro-Syrian
supporters.

LEBANESE POLITICAL LEADERS
UNIVERSALLY CONDEMN THE ATTACK
--------------


8. (U) Lebanese leaders from across the political spectrum
issued statements condemning the attacks and expressing
sympathies and condolences to the people of Tripoli.
President Sleiman called the incident an "atrocious criminal
act," saying "The Lebanese ARMY and security forces will not
surrender to any criminal acts." In a televised address
before an audience celebrating the achievements of students
who passed their civil service exams, Prime Minister Fouad
Siniora declared the attack would not affect the start of the
work of the cabinet. He supported Sleiman's call for
"openness, reconciliation, unity and defiance in the face of
terrorism." Both Sleiman and Siniora said such acts only
serve the interests of "the Israeli enemy." Siniora declared
August 14 a day of national mourning.


9. (U) Other key leaders, such as March 14 and Future
Movement leader Saad Hariri, Progressive Socialist Party
(PSP) leader and March 14 member Walid Jumblatt, Lebanese
Forces leader and March 14 member Samir Geagea, and
opposition Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun
condemned the attack and encouraged the Lebanese to remain
united. Hariri posited that the attack was part of an
"ongoing plot." Jumblatt took the opportunity to push the
government to "grant the LAF the right to gather weapons from
all parties." Surprisingly, Hizballah issued a statement
praising the LAF's role in securing peace and stability.


10. (U) Defense Minister Elias Murr was adamant that the LAF
"would not fear the crime." He also asserted that the LAF is
"stronger now and will fight terrorism and convict criminals
wherever they are." Tripoli's political leaders, including
Minister of Economy and Trade Mohammad Safadi, called the
attack an attempt to "increase divisions" between the LAF and
the Lebanese people. However, he dismissed the theory that
the attack was somehow linked to Sleiman's trip to Damascus.
Religious leaders, including the Mufti of Tripoli Sheik Malek
al Shaar, Grand Mufti of Lebanon Sheikh Mohammad Rashid
Qabbani, and the Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir
additionally condemned the attack.

INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
SHOWS SUPPORT FOR LEBANON
--------------


11. (U) Statements condemning the attack from the United
Nations, the European Union, the Arab League, France, Saudi
Arabia and the U.S. all were published by the local press.
Each statement included condemnation of the attack and
expressions of condolence, but more importantly reaffirmed
support for the Sleiman government. The statements called
upon the GOL to continue on its path to achieve peace and
security within Lebanon which, in turn, could benefit the
region.

BEIRUT 00001198 003 OF 003



COMMENT
--------------


12. (C) The ability of the LAF and ISF to assert control and
maintain order will be an important issue in the upcoming
National Dialogue discussion of the national defense
strategy. Arguments about the danger of Hizballah retaining
its weapons will become diluted if Tripoli, or other areas,
experience an up-tick in armed violence or terror attacks.
GRANT