LEBANON: CONSPIRACY THEORIES AND CONDEMNATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001198 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S OOK, PDAS WARLICK P FOR HMUSTAPHA AND RRANGASWAM USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/MCDERMOTT E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE MARR MOPS SY SUBJECT: LEBANON: CONSPIRACY THEORIES AND CONDEMNATIONS ABOUND AFTER AUGUST 13 BOMBING REF: IIR 6 857 0335 08 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. William Grant for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Leaders from across Lebanon's political spectrum condemned the August 13 civilian bus bombing in the northern city of Tripoli that resulted in the deaths of several Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) soldiers, among others. So far, no group has claimed responsibility for the attack. Several theories are circulating among the GOL and political analysts. The most widely discussed theory is the attack specifically targeted the LAF in an attempt to highlight the weaknesses of the military and the state to maintain security throughout Lebanon. ¶2. (U) President Sleiman called the event an "atrocious criminal act," while Prime Minister Siniora affirmed the GOL would not be lax in pursuing the perpetrators, saying "the strongest weapon is the weapon of our unity as Lebanese." These sentiments were echoed in similar statements from March 14, March 8/Aoun supporters, Tripoli's political leaders, and religious figures. Likewise, many in the international community expressed their condemnations and condolences including the U.S., UN, EU, Arab League, France, Saudi Arabia, and Syria. Siniora declared August 14 a day of national mourning. End summary. LAF TARGETED IN TRIPOLI -------------- ¶3. (U) During the morning rush hour on August 13, a civilian bus carrying civilian and LAF passengers exploded in a busy commercial district in the northern city of Tripoli. A final casualty count has not been released; press reports indicate as many as 18 people were killed, including at least nine LAF soldiers, and at least 40 more people were injured. According to a statement released by the LAF, the explosion occurred in an area transited frequently by military personnel en route to other duty stations. The LAF called the incident a "terrorist bombing," although no person or group has yet claimed responsibility. The incident is the deadliest attack on the LAF since the death of 170 soldiers fighting Fatah al Islam insurgents at the Nahr al Bared Palestinian refugee camp in Tripoli in the spring of 2007. CONSPIRACY THEORIES ABOUND -------------- ¶4. (U) The attack came one day after the August 12 parliamentary vote of confidence for the unity government and coincided with the August 13-14 visit of President Michel Sleiman to Syria (Sleiman departed on schedule several hours after the morning attack). Some of the initial theories included Syria covertly planning the attack to embarrass Sleiman and show Lebanon's need for Syria, or to give Syrian President Asad influence over Sleiman's choice for LAF commander. Another theory posits Saudi Arabia being linked to the attack in an attempt to embarrass Syria. Alternatively, some have suggested the Tripoli attack is retaliation against the LAF for its role in Nahr al Bared (NAB); in particular retaliation by Fatah al Islam extremists, whose attack on the LAF provoked the NAB battle. ¶5. (C) Ambassador Naji Abi Assi, Diplomatic Advisor to Sleiman, told Pol/Econ Chief on August 13 he did not believe Syria was behind the attack. He argued that the Syrians wanted the Damascus summit to be a success and would not have instigated such an attack one day before the meeting. However, the Saudis might have reason to embarrass Syria, he said, but deemed this too strong an action for Saudi Arabia. Therefore, Abi Assi blamed Islamic extremists for the attack, although he could not explain why they would take such an action now. (Comment: Abi Assi, as diplomatic advisor to the president, is unlikely to criticize Syria in our presence. End comment.) BEIRUT 00001198 002 OF 003 ¶6. (C) A widely discussed theory is that the perpetrators of the attack wanted to expose weaknesses in the military and the state to control and maintain security throughout Lebanon. Analysts point to the December 2007 assassination of General Francois Hajj, who commanded the LAF operations during the NAB conflict, and the January 2008 assassination of Internal Security Forces (ISF) Major Wissam Eid, one of the leading security investigators of previous political assassinations in Lebanon, as signs of distress within Lebanon's security apparatus, including the LAF and ISF. Analysts say these events are critical reminders of the need for a strong LAF commander, who we expect will be appointed sometime the week of August 18 by the new cabinet. ¶7. (C) Others analysts suggest the attack was designed to provoke a heavy-handed response from the LAF. Such a response, the theory goes, could fuel additional violence by Sunni extremists and cause a split in the Sunni political block led by Saad Hariri. Such occurrences would weaken the strength of Hariri and the March 14 coalition in the north and deliver 2009 electoral victories to pro-Syrian supporters. LEBANESE POLITICAL LEADERS UNIVERSALLY CONDEMN THE ATTACK -------------- ¶8. (U) Lebanese leaders from across the political spectrum issued statements condemning the attacks and expressing sympathies and condolences to the people of Tripoli. President Sleiman called the incident an "atrocious criminal act," saying "The Lebanese army and security forces will not surrender to any criminal acts." In a televised address before an audience celebrating the achievements of students who passed their civil service exams, Prime Minister Fouad Siniora declared the attack would not affect the start of the work of the cabinet. He supported Sleiman's call for "openness, reconciliation, unity and defiance in the face of terrorism." Both Sleiman and Siniora said such acts only serve the interests of "the Israeli enemy." Siniora declared August 14 a day of national mourning. ¶9. (U) Other key leaders, such as March 14 and Future Movement leader Saad Hariri, Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) leader and March 14 member Walid Jumblatt, Lebanese Forces leader and March 14 member Samir Geagea, and opposition Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun condemned the attack and encouraged the Lebanese to remain united. Hariri posited that the attack was part of an "ongoing plot." Jumblatt took the opportunity to push the government to "grant the LAF the right to gather weapons from all parties." Surprisingly, Hizballah issued a statement praising the LAF's role in securing peace and stability. ¶10. (U) Defense Minister Elias Murr was adamant that the LAF "would not fear the crime." He also asserted that the LAF is "stronger now and will fight terrorism and convict criminals wherever they are." Tripoli's political leaders, including Minister of Economy and Trade Mohammad Safadi, called the attack an attempt to "increase divisions" between the LAF and the Lebanese people. However, he dismissed the theory that the attack was somehow linked to Sleiman's trip to Damascus. Religious leaders, including the Mufti of Tripoli Sheik Malek al Shaar, Grand Mufti of Lebanon Sheikh Mohammad Rashid Qabbani, and the Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir additionally condemned the attack. INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SHOWS SUPPORT FOR LEBANON -------------- ¶11. (U) Statements condemning the attack from the United Nations, the European Union, the Arab League, France, Saudi Arabia and the U.S. all were published by the local press. Each statement included condemnation of the attack and expressions of condolence, but more importantly reaffirmed support for the Sleiman government. The statements called upon the GOL to continue on its path to achieve peace and security within Lebanon which, in turn, could benefit the region. BEIRUT 00001198 003 OF 003 COMMENT -------------- ¶12. (C) The ability of the LAF and ISF to assert control and maintain order will be an important issue in the upcoming National Dialogue discussion of the national defense strategy. Arguments about the danger of Hizballah retaining its weapons will become diluted if Tripoli, or other areas, experience an up-tick in armed violence or terror attacks. GRANT