LEBANON: HIZBALLAH WILL PRESS FOR ACTION AGAINST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001187 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA, PM/FO ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S HOOK, WARLICK P FOR HMUSTAFA, RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/MCDERMOTT E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/11/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS SY LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: HIZBALLAH WILL PRESS FOR ACTION AGAINST ISRAELI OVERFLIGHTS, HARIRI WARNS Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. William Grant for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Majority leader Saad Hariri warned that Hizballah would soon pressure the GOL to take action against Israeli overflights. He was reacting to recent tough statements from Israel about the official GOL cabinet statement linking Hizballah's "resistance" to the authority of the Lebanese state. Dismissing the recent parliamentary debate over the cabinet statement as a "political charade" after Hizballah's show of force, Hariri indicated he was beginning to think about the 2009 parliamentary elections, especially the contested Christian districts. Hariri told us that he informed both President Sleiman and PM Siniora that the appoint of Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) G-2 Intelligence Director Georges Khoury as the next LAF Commander is a "red line" for his party. End summary. PRESSURE ON GOL TO ACT AGAINST ISRAELI OVERFLIGHTS -------------- ¶2. (C) Charge Grant, accompanied by Pol/Econ Chief, met with majority leader Saad Hariri and his advisor Ghattas Khoury on August 10. Hariri began by asking, "When is Israel going to attack us?" The Israelis, he claimed, believed Hizballah had air-to-air missiles and would hold the GOL accountable for any strikes against Israeli aircraft. Hariri expressed concern that recent Israeli statements that it would hold all of Lebanon responsible for any attacks would provoke Hizballah into demanding that the GOL respond equally aggressively. ¶3. (C) Hariri warned that following parliament's vote of confidence (which occurred August 12),Hizballah would challenge the government to take action against Israeli overflights. We will have to give the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) a mandate to respond, he said, to prevent Hizballah from acting and to take away its claim to being the only credible resistance. Diplomatic responses are not enough, he added; if we allow the Israeli overflights, what's to stop the Syrians? While Hariri admitted that the LAF capabilities would not threaten the Israelis, he was concerned that Hizballah might fire rockets at Israeli aircraft, provoking Israeli retaliations against all of Lebanon, rather than just Hizballah. PARLIAMENTARY DEBATE A "POLITICAL CHARADE" -------------- ¶4. (C) Hariri dubbed the parliamentary debate over the ministerial statement a "political charade"; i.e., that it was meaningless given Hizballah's May takeover of west Beirut and Doha agreement, which resulted in giving the opposition a blocking third in cabinet. Hizballah did not want its arms mentioned in the debate, he explained, expecting the majority to be scared of them, "and obviously we are not." LOOKING TO 2009 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS -------------- ¶5. (C) Looking ahead to the 2009 parliamentary elections, Hariri and Khoury both agreed on the need to support March 14 candidates, especially Christians, in contested regions such as Jbeil, Baabda, the Biqa', Zahle, and West Biqa'. Separately, Khoury reported that he is working with other March 14 Christians to form an "independent" group (i.e., not affiliated with Lebanese Forces or Kataeb) that would be capable of attracting votes from the "40 percent" of Lebanon's Christians who "don't know where to go" because they supported neither Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun (of the opposition) nor Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea (of the majority). VETOS GEORGES KHOURY BEIRUT 00001187 002 OF 002 AS LAF COMMANDER -------------- ¶6. (C) Hariri relayed that he had told both President Sleiman and PM Siniora the day before that he would not accept LAF G-2 Intelligence Director Georges Khoury as LAF Commander, warning them that his ministers would resign from cabinet. Sleiman reportedly was "happy" with Hariri's position. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) We are glad to see that Hariri is at least beginning to think about the upcoming parliamentary elections. The Christian divide, both within March 14 and in the country as a whole, will play a major role in the 2009 elections. A March 14 "third-way" Christian bloc reflects the recognition by some in March 14 that many Christian voters who might support March 14 are wary of its leading Christian member, Samir Geagea. A big challenge for them will be to ensure that its Christian blocs attract voters away from Michel Aoun rather than each other. ¶8. (C) We should not assume that Hariri's tough talk tough against the selection of George Khoury as LAF commander means it won't happen. DefMin Elias Murr, who also opposes Khoury, has warned that the Maronite Patriarch's support for Khoury may translate into his being chosen. We believe discussions are going on now about the LAF commander for a cabinet meeting on this subject likely to be held soon after Sleiman returns from Syria August 15. End comment. GRANT