LEBANON: AOUNIST MP HINTS AT CONSENSUS IN 2009

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001161 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S HOOK, PDAS WARLICK P FOR HMUSTAPHA AND RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/MCDERMOTT E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/06/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE SY SUBJECT: LEBANON: AOUNIST MP HINTS AT CONSENSUS IN 2009 AROUND AOUN'S STRENGTH REF: BEIRUT 1139 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. William Grant for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) MP Ibrahim Kanaan told Charge FPM is "satisfied" with the cabinet statement. He said the kerfluffle over fellow FPM MP Gebran Bassil's remarks about reviewing Paris III were taken out of context and exploited. Kenaan said he is turning his attention to the National Dialogue, where he will represent the FPM. ¶2. (C) On the 2009 parliamentary elections, a confident Kanaan said he expects FPM will win Christian districts and claimed that Christian rivals like Amine Gemayale and Michel Murr recognize this and are hinting at running consensus slates of candidates. With this in mind, he downplayed the notion of Christian districts being decisive in the election because there may be consensus on Christian candidates and a different composition to the current majority and minority blocs. As a member of parliament's Administration and Justice Committee, Kenaan is pressing ahead with electoral law reform laws. ¶3. (C) Echoing a common theme of Aounists, Kenaan linked the future of Lebanon's security with finding a resolution to the issue of Palestinian refugees. In his opinion, the existence of terrorism in the Palestinian camps gives credence to Hizballah's arguments to keep its weapons. ¶4. (C) Finally, Kenaan confidently assessed the FPM as professional and organized. He acknowledged that the party has specific demands, but not "rigid alliances." Furthermore, he claimed to have told Aoun that Aoun has greater political freedom and can be more influential now that he is not a candidate for the presidency. End summary. FPM "SATISFIED" WITH CABINET STATEMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) Charge Grant and POLOFF met August 7 with Free Patriotic Movement MP and advisor to Michel Aoun Ibrahim Kanaan. Kanaan said FPM was "satisfied" with the cabinet statement agreed on August 1 (reftel). Kenaan referenced as positive inclusions full implementation of UNSCR 1701; full authority of the state; and all of the Paris III conventions. Kenaan explained that the reaction to the proposal by fellow FPM MP Gebran Bassil in the drafting committee to reconsider Paris III were taken out of context and exploited. In fact, he continued, FPM agrees in principle with Paris III, but is concerned about its implementation. KENAAN TO REPRESENT FPM IN NATIONAL DIALOGUE -------------- ¶6. (C) According to Kanaan, the next important issue is the National Dialogue. Aoun has designtated him to represent the FPM, and he is urging that President Sleiman begin the Dialogue process very soon. Kanaan argued that Lebanese citizens view the National Dialogue as a very important internal issue, and need to be assured that it is progressing. The first issue on the agenda should be Hizballah's weapons, in his opinion. (Note: Press reports indicate other representatives named to participate in the National Dialogue include: Salim Sayegh (Kataeb); Akram Shehayyeb or Sharif Fayad (Walid Jumblatt's Progressive Socialist Party); Mohammed Fneish or Mohammad Raad (Hizballah); and George Adwan (Lebanese Forces). End note.) 2009 ELECTIONS AND PARTY POLITICS -------------- ¶7. (C) Kanaan expressed his belief that the purpose of the current government is to ensure the parliamentary elections occur in 2009. He said he does not believe that MPs are BEIRUT 00001161 002 OF 003 saying anything new; rather they are using rhetoric to position themselves for the elections. ¶8. (C) Contrary to what others have told us, Kanaan said he does not believe the Christian districts will prove to be the deciding factor in the elections. He hinted that Christians such as Amine Gemayal from March 14 and independent Michel Murr are sensing that the opposition Aoun group will win in Christian districts. As a result, they are suggesting to the Aoun group, Kanaan claimed, forming consensus candidate lists. Kenaan claimed that FPM is invovled in such discussions regarding certain districts such as Jbeil (where President Sleiman is from) and Metn. Kanaan said FPM will win 6 of the 8 seats in the Metn and that he has advised Aoun not to fight "down to the last seat" because it is not in FPM's best interest. ¶10. (C) As a member of parliament's Administration and Justice Committee debating electoral law reform, Kenaan reported the committee has been meeting two to three times per week. However, the discussions have been difficult. He said he wants to move forward with electoral reforms, such as creating a campaign finance ceiling, and reforming bank secrecy laws for campaign contributions, but Saad Hariri's Future party has registered objections. Kenaan took credit for influencing the Amal and Shia positions in the committee. He continued that there do not appear to be splits along party lines, yet the Future Movement and Hizballah are the toughest positions to move. ¶11. (C) Kenaan expects the parliament will call an extraordinary parliamentary session to work through the backlog of legislation between August and October. (Note: Parliament normally goes back into session the first Tuesday after October 15. End note.) ¶12. (C) Kenaan said post-election would be a better time to consider reevaluation of the Taif Accord and the electoral districts spelled out in the Doha Agreement. He believes it is necessary to review certain articles in the constitution to remove ambiguities that he claims lead to chaos. PALESTINIANS AND LEBANON'S SECURITY -------------- ¶13. (C) Questioned about FPM's rationale for raising the issue of Palestinian refugees during the cabinet discussions, Kenaan replied that solving the Palestinian issue is integral to guaranteeing Lebanon's security. He continued that it is not a secret that terrorism exists in the Palestinian refugee camps. In Kenaan's view, this provides a basis for Hizballah to continue to argue for the need to keep its weapons. Kenaan said whether the argument is valid or not, it is "factual" in his opinion. He also expressed the concern that Lebanon cannot afford to have outside actors, such as Syria or Saudi Arabia, use the Palestinian issu for their own agendas every few years. FPM HA DEMANDS, BUT NOT "RIGID ALLIANCES" -------------- ¶14. (C) Kanaan confidently assessed FPM's preparations for the 2009 elections as professional and organized. He reiterated his belief that FPM played a positive role in the formation of the cabinet statement. He added that FPM will continue to raise the Palestinian issue and Lebanon-Syria relations in the National Dialogue. Kenaan did not deny that FPM has demands, but clarified that FPM has a nationalist vision. The party, he said, would ally itself with anyone that may be instrumental in achieving those goals. Kenaan did not dismiss the possibility of a future alliance with Saad Hariri, saying that "politics change." ¶15. (C) Furthermore, Kenaan said FPM leader Aoun has embraced Kenaan's advice to maintain his political freedom. Kenaan believes Aoun can have greater influence now that he is not a candidate for the presidency. COMMENT BEIRUT 00001161 003 OF 003 -------------- ¶16. (C) As usual, Kanaan was thoughtful and non-confrontational when discussing the future relationship between FPM and other parties. It is useful to hear the ideas he is presenting to Aoun, even if Aoun's "inner circle" advisors, such as his son-in-law and now Minister Gebran Bassil, probably have more influence on Aoun. End comment. GRANT