LEBANON: NEW TOURISM MINISTER SAYS 2009 CAMPAIGN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 001134

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2018
TAGS: EAID ECON PGOV PINR PREL PTER LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: NEW TOURISM MINISTER SAYS 2009 CAMPAIGN
WILL BE TOUGH IN ZAHLE

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. William Grant for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a courtesy call by CDA Grant, newly appointed
Tourism Minister Elie Marouni said the committee drafting the
cabinet's ministerial statement would complete its work on
August 1 but two parties, his own Kataeb (Phlange) party and
the Lebanese Forces, will register "reservations" when the
agreement comes to the full cabinet. The reservations are
simply expressions of views; they do not imply the cabinet
will not endorse the ministerial statement. Marouni
predicted the upcoming 2009 parliamentary elections would be
decided in battleground Christian areas, such as the Zahle
area where he is from. He added that the campaign in Zahle
would be difficult due to the large amount of funding the
opposition Christian candidate in the area is receiving from
Hizballah and Iran. Marouni was also quite vocal in his
support for the USG and USG assistance to Lebanon's tourism
sector. Marouni plans to travel to Boston and Texas
beginning in late August for meetings with Kataeb supporters.
End Summary.

MINISTERIAL STATEMENT
WILL BE COMPLETED TODAY
--------------


2. (C) During a August 1 meeting with CDA Grant, PolOff, and
LES Political Specialist, newly appointed Tourism Minister
Elie Marouni said the committee currently drafting the
cabinet's ministerial statement would finish its work later
that day, but the language addressing Hizballah's arms would
be watered down. After the committee completes its work, the
draft statement will be sent to the full cabinet to be
approved. The cabinet will then have the opportunity to
amend the statement and add tougher language addressing
Hizballah's arms, but Marouni was skeptical that such
language would be added.


3. (C) Marouni said that if the language addressing
Hizballah's weapons was too weak, March 14's Christian
parties would voice their reservations when the statement
comes to the full cabinet. That includes the Kataeb
(Phlange) party of Amine Gemayel (Marouni is Kataeb's sole
minister in the cabinet) and the Lebanese Forces of Samir
Geagea. He dismissed rumors that March 14 Christians might
have withdrawn from the cabinet over earlier language. March

14's Christian leadership did not want to return to a
"pre-Doha" state of deadlock, he said. (Note: Michel
Mecattef, advisor to Kataeb leader Amine Gemayel, told us two
days earlier that Kateab would pull its minister, i.e.,
Marouni, out of the cabinet if the language on Hizballah's
arms was too weak. Marouni, however, did not seem inclined
to do so. End note.)


4. (C) Marouni stressed his and March 14's belief that the
Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) should be the only armed
organization in Lebanon. If not addressed in the ministerial
statement, Marouni suspected that the topic of Hizballah's
arms would be addressed in President Sleiman's National
Dialogue. However, he had little faith that the National
Dialogue would effectively deal with the issue of Hizballah's
illegal arms.

2009 ELECTIONS KEY
--------------


5. (C) Marouni expressed his frustration that March 14 is
often obliged to accept scenarios and deals it opposes due to
Hizballah's arms. According to Marouni, the opposition is
waiting for next year's parliamentary elections to occur,
which it expects it will win, to return Lebanon to its
pre-2005 days when it was under Syrian occupation. If the
opposition wins the elections and international support for
March 14 disappears, Iran will control Lebanon, he said.


6. (C) Like others, Marouni predicted that the 2009
elections will be decided in Christian-dominated districts.
The deciding factor will be how strong is the support for

Christian opposition leader Michele Aoun. Marouni said
Christians have changed their views of Aoun since the last
election in 2005, because then there was no other strong
Christian leaders to follow, noting that in 2005 Kataeb was
poorly-organized and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea was
still in prison.


7. (C) Now Marouni believes that because of Aoun's alliance
with Hizballah and because March 14 Christians are better
organized, many former Aounists may support March 14 in
battleground districts. For example, he said, Kataeb leader
Amine Gemayel and former deputy prime minister and current
Defense Minister Elias Murr are now holding talks on forming
an alliance in the Metn district. If a Murr-Gemayel alliance
happens, March 14 will be the ultimate beneficiary in the
Metn election.

ZAHLE ELECTIONS
--------------


8. (C) Marouni stated his concern that the opposition's
representative in Zahle, Elie Skaff, was better financed than
his March 14 rivals. Skaff is receiving financial support
from Hizballah, Iran, and Aoun, according to Marouni.
Marouni said Skaff is dangerous because he does things for
his own self interest, highlighting a recent real estate deal
Skaff completed with Hassan Yaoub, a man with links to
Hizballah and Iran, according to Marouni. Skaff and Morouni
are not only political rivals in Zahle; there is also bad
blood between them stemming from an incident last April.
Marouni's brother was one of two individuals killed while
leaving the Kataeb headquarters in Zahle by Skaff supporters.
Marouni felt the period leading up to the elections and the
elections themselves in Zahle will be tough for March 14 and
USG support for March 14 Christians in the Zahle region would
be necessary to counter Skaff's Iranian backed resources

MARCH 14 STILL UNITED,
INCLUDING JUMBLATT
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9. (C) Marouni said rumors March 14 was dissolving were
incorrect. Marouni admitted some problems did exist over how
March 14 allocated some of its cabinet seats between its
members, but the coalition would remain intact before the
spring 2009 elections. He added that recent overtures made
by March 14 Druze leader Walid Jumblatt towards the
opposition were political calculations more so than a sign
that Jumblatt was thinking of leaving the March 14 coalition.
He noted that Jumblatt has a significant Shia population in
districts near his and therefore is watering down his usual
tough language against Hizballah and the opposition in an
effort not to antagonize his Shia electorate. Marouni said
March 14 and its leaders realize that the only way for them
to defeat the opposition in the upcoming elections is to
remain united.

TOURISM TALK
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10. (C) Marouni said he was thankful for all the USG support
provided for the tourism sector in Lebanon, especially the
USAID funded Lebanese Mountain Trail project and support for
the development of a tourism website. Marouni noted that the
tourism sector is benefiting greatly from the increased
number of Lebanese diaspora/Arab tourists visiting Lebanon
this summer. Marouni hoped more European and American
tourists would visit Lebanon in the future. Marouni also
mentioned that Lebanon has increased its cooperation's with
some African countries on how to improve Lebanon's tourism
sector.


11. (SBU) Marouni intends to visit Boston, Texas and perhaps
other places in the U.S. around August 20-30. He will attend
memorial ceremonies for his brother and meet with Kataeb
supporters. He asked very vaguely about seeing USG
officials. If he pursues these inquiries, we suggest that he
does not need to see anyone above office director level.
GRANT