LEBANON: NEW TOURISM MINISTER SAYS 2009 CAMPAIGN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 001134 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2018 TAGS: EAID ECON PGOV PINR PREL PTER LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: NEW TOURISM MINISTER SAYS 2009 CAMPAIGN WILL BE TOUGH IN ZAHLE Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. William Grant for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In a courtesy call by CDA Grant, newly appointed Tourism Minister Elie Marouni said the committee drafting the cabinet's ministerial statement would complete its work on August 1 but two parties, his own Kataeb (Phlange) party and the Lebanese Forces, will register "reservations" when the agreement comes to the full cabinet. The reservations are simply expressions of views; they do not imply the cabinet will not endorse the ministerial statement. Marouni predicted the upcoming 2009 parliamentary elections would be decided in battleground Christian areas, such as the Zahle area where he is from. He added that the campaign in Zahle would be difficult due to the large amount of funding the opposition Christian candidate in the area is receiving from Hizballah and Iran. Marouni was also quite vocal in his support for the USG and USG assistance to Lebanon's tourism sector. Marouni plans to travel to Boston and Texas beginning in late August for meetings with Kataeb supporters. End Summary. MINISTERIAL STATEMENT WILL BE COMPLETED TODAY -------------- ¶2. (C) During a August 1 meeting with CDA Grant, PolOff, and LES Political Specialist, newly appointed Tourism Minister Elie Marouni said the committee currently drafting the cabinet's ministerial statement would finish its work later that day, but the language addressing Hizballah's arms would be watered down. After the committee completes its work, the draft statement will be sent to the full cabinet to be approved. The cabinet will then have the opportunity to amend the statement and add tougher language addressing Hizballah's arms, but Marouni was skeptical that such language would be added. ¶3. (C) Marouni said that if the language addressing Hizballah's weapons was too weak, March 14's Christian parties would voice their reservations when the statement comes to the full cabinet. That includes the Kataeb (Phlange) party of Amine Gemayel (Marouni is Kataeb's sole minister in the cabinet) and the Lebanese Forces of Samir Geagea. He dismissed rumors that March 14 Christians might have withdrawn from the cabinet over earlier language. March 14's Christian leadership did not want to return to a "pre-Doha" state of deadlock, he said. (Note: Michel Mecattef, advisor to Kataeb leader Amine Gemayel, told us two days earlier that Kateab would pull its minister, i.e., Marouni, out of the cabinet if the language on Hizballah's arms was too weak. Marouni, however, did not seem inclined to do so. End note.) ¶4. (C) Marouni stressed his and March 14's belief that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) should be the only armed organization in Lebanon. If not addressed in the ministerial statement, Marouni suspected that the topic of Hizballah's arms would be addressed in President Sleiman's National Dialogue. However, he had little faith that the National Dialogue would effectively deal with the issue of Hizballah's illegal arms. 2009 ELECTIONS KEY -------------- ¶5. (C) Marouni expressed his frustration that March 14 is often obliged to accept scenarios and deals it opposes due to Hizballah's arms. According to Marouni, the opposition is waiting for next year's parliamentary elections to occur, which it expects it will win, to return Lebanon to its pre-2005 days when it was under Syrian occupation. If the opposition wins the elections and international support for March 14 disappears, Iran will control Lebanon, he said. ¶6. (C) Like others, Marouni predicted that the 2009 elections will be decided in Christian-dominated districts. The deciding factor will be how strong is the support for Christian opposition leader Michele Aoun. Marouni said Christians have changed their views of Aoun since the last election in 2005, because then there was no other strong Christian leaders to follow, noting that in 2005 Kataeb was poorly-organized and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea was still in prison. ¶7. (C) Now Marouni believes that because of Aoun's alliance with Hizballah and because March 14 Christians are better organized, many former Aounists may support March 14 in battleground districts. For example, he said, Kataeb leader Amine Gemayel and former deputy prime minister and current Defense Minister Elias Murr are now holding talks on forming an alliance in the Metn district. If a Murr-Gemayel alliance happens, March 14 will be the ultimate beneficiary in the Metn election. ZAHLE ELECTIONS -------------- ¶8. (C) Marouni stated his concern that the opposition's representative in Zahle, Elie Skaff, was better financed than his March 14 rivals. Skaff is receiving financial support from Hizballah, Iran, and Aoun, according to Marouni. Marouni said Skaff is dangerous because he does things for his own self interest, highlighting a recent real estate deal Skaff completed with Hassan Yaoub, a man with links to Hizballah and Iran, according to Marouni. Skaff and Morouni are not only political rivals in Zahle; there is also bad blood between them stemming from an incident last April. Marouni's brother was one of two individuals killed while leaving the Kataeb headquarters in Zahle by Skaff supporters. Marouni felt the period leading up to the elections and the elections themselves in Zahle will be tough for March 14 and USG support for March 14 Christians in the Zahle region would be necessary to counter Skaff's Iranian backed resources MARCH 14 STILL UNITED, INCLUDING JUMBLATT -------------- ¶9. (C) Marouni said rumors March 14 was dissolving were incorrect. Marouni admitted some problems did exist over how March 14 allocated some of its cabinet seats between its members, but the coalition would remain intact before the spring 2009 elections. He added that recent overtures made by March 14 Druze leader Walid Jumblatt towards the opposition were political calculations more so than a sign that Jumblatt was thinking of leaving the March 14 coalition. He noted that Jumblatt has a significant Shia population in districts near his and therefore is watering down his usual tough language against Hizballah and the opposition in an effort not to antagonize his Shia electorate. Marouni said March 14 and its leaders realize that the only way for them to defeat the opposition in the upcoming elections is to remain united. TOURISM TALK -------------- ¶10. (C) Marouni said he was thankful for all the USG support provided for the tourism sector in Lebanon, especially the USAID funded Lebanese Mountain Trail project and support for the development of a tourism website. Marouni noted that the tourism sector is benefiting greatly from the increased number of Lebanese diaspora/Arab tourists visiting Lebanon this summer. Marouni hoped more European and American tourists would visit Lebanon in the future. Marouni also mentioned that Lebanon has increased its cooperation's with some African countries on how to improve Lebanon's tourism sector. ¶11. (SBU) Marouni intends to visit Boston, Texas and perhaps other places in the U.S. around August 20-30. He will attend memorial ceremonies for his brother and meet with Kataeb supporters. He asked very vaguely about seeing USG officials. If he pursues these inquiries, we suggest that he does not need to see anyone above office director level. GRANT