LEBANON: NEW INDEPENDENT SHIA MINISTER CALLS FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001113 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA, PM/FO ALSO FOR IO A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK P FOR HERRO MUSTAFA USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/28/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS SY LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: NEW INDEPENDENT SHIA MINISTER CALLS FOR STATEMENT TO ADDRESS HIZBALLAH ARMS REF: A. BAGHDAD 2298 ¶B. BEIRUT 515 ¶C. BEIRUT Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. William Grant for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In a courtesy call by Charge Grant, newly appointed non-Hizballah Shia Minister Ibrahim Shamseddine praised Saad Hariri's recent trip to Iraq as an important step in improving Arab-Iraqi relations and reducing Iranian influence over Lebanese Shia. He stressed his own independence and ability to talk to all sides, including Hizballah, with one notable exception: fellow Shia Speaker Berri. He believes the ministerial statement must address the issue of Hizballah's arms, making it clear that the state had exclusive competence in deciding when to use them. End summary. SUPPORTED BY ALL, EXCEPT BERRI -------------- ¶2. (C) During a July 25 meeting with Charge Grant, A/DCM, and Senior LES Political Advisor, newly appointed Minister of State for Administrative Reform Ibrahim Shamseddine a non-Hizballah Shia appointed to the cabinet by the majority, stressed his independent stature, but indicated he shares a "similar vision" with March 14. He stressed his intentions to abide by the constitution and laws, adding that he will push people to "play by the rules and not through outside deals," which he deemed a major problem in Lebanon. Shameseddine also said that although he is able to talk with all parties, he is not a mediator, but instead adheres to his own "convictions and beliefs." PRAISE FOR SAAD'S VISIT TO BAGHDAD -------------- ¶3. (C) Shamseddine praised Saad Hariri's recent visit to Iraq (Ref A) adding that it should be repeated to help normalize Sunni-Shia relations. He stressed that the Iraqi Shias should be part of the Arab world, calling for better Iraqi-Arab relations and denouncing what he perceived to be an Arab boycott of Iraq. His impression was that the U.S. was not doing enough to encourage Arab states to have good relations with Iraq, and urged the U.S. to push for a visit by the Saudi Foreign Minister to Baghdad. He added it is crucial for the Lebanese Shia to see that Iraq is gaining back its position in the Arab world, because this would help reduce Iranian influence over the Shia. ¶4. (C) While he praised the Shia religious leader in Iraq, Ali Sistani, he nevertheless noted that the religious leaders in Iran are "better" in the sense they hold both the political and religious hats at the same time. He also indicated that Sistani, as a religious leader, should be more visible and outspoken. He said Iraqi Shias are not aspiring for an Islamic state as in Iran, but instead seek fair representation in the political system. A UNIQUE ROLE: SHIA CABINET MEMBER NAMED BY THE MAJORITY -------------- ¶5. (C) Shamseddine expressed his pleasure at the "honorable" manner in hich he became a minister. Rather than horsetrading, his nomination was the result of a consensus among President Sleiman, majority leader Saad Hariri, and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt. However, Speaker Nabih Berri appeared threatened by his appointment. Shamseddine said Berri, a fellow Shia, knows that he is "not part of his team" but would adopt a "Vaseline approach" of being openly practical without attempting to challenge him bluntly. "Berri is smarter than that," he commented. ¶6. (C) Hizballah, which he labeled a whole "establishment" BEIRUT 00001113 002 OF 003 rather than a "one man show," could have vetoed his nomination, but refrained from doing so, perhaps under the belief that Berri would oppose him. Shamseddine said he had a better relationship with Hizballah, with whom he talks and whom he praised for maintaining an open dialogue, than with Berri, with whom he does not, and whose advisors he dubbed "simple people." However, he added that he does have a good relationship with Berri's party Amal in general, while Hizballah is aware that it will not succeed in bringing Shamseddine to its side. MINISTERIAL STATEMENT MUST ADDRESS HIZBALLAH'S ARMS -------------- ¶7. (C) Shameseddine stressed that the government's statement to parliament must mention something about Hizballah's arms. The opposition was exhibiting the same "trend" of making high demands, insisting on using the word "resistance," he said, although it was not yet clear whether this was simple a negotiating technique or a final position. ¶8. (C) Shameseddine said he believed the statement should mention that the GOL is committed to the liberation of all occupied territory and the resistance should include all Lebanese, along the lines of "it is the GOL's responsibility to take every step to liberate occupied land." Such language would imply that the resistance could be one of the means available to the state to achieve its goal, but that it would be the tool of a formal partnership between the state and Hizballah. "The jewel of the GOL is in its own legitimacy," he said, suggesting that the state should have the exclusive right to decide when to use the resistance. He warned that clear language on this issue was imperative; otherwise, "we will be building another brick in the wall of Hizballah's state." HIZBALLAH IS RELAXED -------------- ¶9. (C) Shameseddine noted that the 1960 electoral law would allow the Shia, who are present almost everywhere in the country, to have a strong influence on the outcome of the 2009 parliamentary elections. However, he noted that Hizballah is "drafting" people by paying them USD 200 each. He indicated that Hizballah feels relaxed and safe, as clearly displayed in its current negotiations over the ministerial statement. IRAN TO BLAME FOR LEBANESE-SYRIAN PROBLEMS -------------- ¶10. (C) Shameseddine blamed Iran for problems between Lebanon and Syria. While he favored better Lebanese-Syrian relations, he stressed that Syria should not be allowed to interfere in Lebanon, and argued that Lebanon should conduct its affairs in a transparent manner to avoid making the Syrians feel threatened as if "a plot is being planned against them." COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) Shamseddine's association with March 14, combined with Saad Hariri's recent meeting with SISTANI in Iraq, could help improve March 14's credibility with Lebanese Shia looking for an alternative to Hizballah. For the Siniora government, Shamseddine's presence in the cabinet ensures that the opposition cannot play the "Shia" card by having all the Shia ministers resign, thereby declaring the government illegitimate, as it did in 2006. ¶12. (C) Shamseddine took pains to stress his independence to us, albeit making it clear he favors March 14. As always, we are impressed with his integrity (although we note than in previous meetings he downplayed any aspirations of entering politics) and his commitment to the role of the state and institution-building. Though not as revered as his father, former Imam Mohammad Mehdi Shamseddine, Ibrahim enjoys the respect of the Shia community BEIRUT 00001113 003 OF 003 GRANT