LEBANON: DEFENSE MINISTER MURR ON THE NEXT ARMY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001076

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YEARGER/GAVITO
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/21/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR PTER MCAP MARR EAIR IR LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: DEFENSE MINISTER MURR ON THE NEXT ARMY
COMMANDER AND THE JOINT MILITARY COMMISSION

Classified By: CDA William Grant for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY AND ACTION REQUEST
--------------


1. (C) Please see action request in para 12. In a July 22
meeting, Defense Minister Elias Murr told Charge the decision
on the next Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) Commander is down to
two names: LAF Intelligence Director BG Georges Khoury and
2nd Brigade Commander BG Jean Qahwaji. (Murr will advocate
for Qahwaji.) Regarding the OSD level Joint Military
Commission proposed 4-5 September 2008 visit, Murr told
Charge it would be best to delay by three to four weeks to
have the new LAF Commander in place, as well as his
subordinate commanders. This way, the USG will have "buy in"
from all of the new commanders rather than making agreements
with outgoing commanders. In the interim, Murr invited
Assistant Secretary of Defense Mary Beth Long back to Beirut
for a "maintenance" visit in August. On the political front,
Murr explained that he and his father have struck a strategic
political alliance with former President Amine Gemayel to
defeat Michel Aoun in the upcoming parliamentary elections.
Murr characterized newly appointed Minister of the Interior
Ziyad Baroud as weak. Murr noted to Charge that he was one
of the few cabinet members not to attend the GOL welcoming
ceremony for prisoners freed by Israel. End summary.

MURR: DELAY THE JMC
UNTIL THE END OF SEPTEMBER
--------------


2. (C) Charge Grant, accompanied by Defense Attache and ODC
Chief, met with Minister of Defense Elias Murr at his
residence in Rabieh on Tuesday, July 22 at 1:00 p.m. Charge
delivered a proposal for an OSD Joint Military Commission
(JMC) to be held in Beirut, Lebanon on 4-5 September 2008
between the USG and the GOL. Murr understood that the JMC
proposal was an outgrowth of his discussions with Under
Secretary for Defense Policy Eric Edelman regarding a
Bilateral Defense Committee (BDC) and that the JMC would
henceforth be the vehicle for these discussions. Murr,
reading the entire proposal on the spot, said he accepted.


3. (C) However, Murr said that it was not the right time to
"fix the date" for the JMC. He preferred to have a new Army
Commander in place, along with a new Army Staff, before the
JMC, arguing that it is better to negotiate/plan with the new
LAF leadership rather than get promises from men who are on
the doorstep of retirement. Murr was very supportive of
including the Lebanese Ambassador to Washington, Anthony
Chedid, as well as the LAF Defense Attache in Washington. By
Murr's estimation, wide sharing of this program, and
including more people in its formulation, will engender a
greater sense of ownership, support, and active participation
by all sides. When pressed, Murr told us that it is possible
that the new LAF leadership could be in place and prepared
for a JMC by the end of September.


4. (C) In the meantime, Murr extended an invitation for ASD
Mary Beth Long to return to Beirut in August to continue the
strategic level discussions and to frame the context of the
JMC. Murr likened this to a "maintenance visit" in order to
maintain momentum saying, "a visit like this would be very
helpful." He will be in the U.S. for a private visit October
13-19 and is interested in meetings in Washington during the
week before, October 7-12.

THE NEXT LAF COMMANDER
AND THE NEW LAF LEADERSHIP
--------------


5. (C) Murr told Charge that the field of candidates for LAF
Commander had narrowed to two: LAF G-2 Intelligence Director
BG Georges Khoury and 2nd Infantry Brigade Commander BG Jean
Qahwaji. Murr said LAF G-4 Logistics Officer Georges Massad
was no longer in the running, as he would only have two years
before retirement. LAF South of the Litani Commander BG
Boulous Mattar is also out of the running due to medical
difficulties, he added.


BEIRUT 00001076 002 OF 003



6. (C) According to Murr, Maronite Patriarch Boutrous Sfeir
is advocating for Khoury to be the next LAF Commander. Murr
stated that Hizballah and Syria, as well as PM Siniora,
support Khoury as well. (Note: In a separate meeting with
Charge the same day, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt also
expressed his support for Khoury. End note.) Murr said,
"From our side, we want Qahwaji, but we don't want to burn
him." Murr stressed that all discussions on the next LAF
Commander are being held in the utmost secrecy as everyone
understands how important this appointment is in comparison
to the recent cabinet formation.


7. (C) Murr expressed confidence that he would be able to
shift the momentum towards Qahwaji to become the next LAF
Commander by using President Michel Sleiman. According to
Murr, he discussed this issue with Sleiman during their last
meeting and Sleiman favors Qahwaji. Murr told us that March
14 leader Saad Hariri also is supportive of Qahwaji.
Meanwhile, Murr assesses that Speaker of Parliament Nabih
Berri and Hizballah will oppose Qahwaji, but "hopefully, they
will not say too much."


8. (C) Murr said he intends to corner Free Patriotic Movement
leader Michel Aoun by forcing Aoun to support Qahwaji in the
face of Hizballah. Qahwaji was on the front lines defending
Aoun when Aoun left the presidency at the end of the Lebanese
Civil War. For Aoun to not back Qahwaji would be viewed as a
betrayal by Aoun of the officer corps for personal political
gain. In the end, Murr does not think the Patriarch will
back Khoury as the Patriarch has someone else in mind:
Non-Commissioned Officer Academy Commander BG Charbel Barq.


9. (C) The process for selecting the next LAF Commander will
begin after the cabinet completes its ministerial statement
and parliament gives it a vote of confidence. Murr said that
the Speaker of Parliament must wait forty-eight hours after
receiving the ministerial statement to convene parliament,
which he expects will occur near the end of July. He then
expects the first cabinet meeting to be held around the first
of August and the second on August 15. Murr believed the LAF
Commander nomination would most likely be deferred until the
second cabinet meeting.


10. (C) Once the new LAF Commander is chosen, Murr intends to
work with him to devise a rotation plan for all of the
officers. Murr already is focusing on the appointment of the
eleven new infantry brigade commanders and the eight "special
forces regiment" commanders. (Comment: Murr is including the
Intervention Regiments in his calculations. End Comment.)
Murr told us that the LAF needs "a positive shock" to help it
improve. Since there is no combat on the horizon to force
change in the Army, Murr intends to shock the system by
announcing 100 percent of all Army command positions on the
same day to include all of the brigade commanders, regimental
commanders and commanders for the 66 tactical level
battalions.


11. (C) Murr told us dispassionately that he is compelled to
get the new LAF command structure into place quickly as his
enemies may try to kill him before he completes this task.
As Minister of Defense, he either directly appoints officers
(such as battalion commanders) or oversees their appointment
through the Military Council. The Military Council is headed
by a Druze, is directly linked to the Ministry of Defense,
and can act independently of the Army Commander. (Note: The
Military Council was created in 1979 as a counter-balance to
the power of the Maronite Army Commander. Note.)

MURR REQUESTS GUIDANCE ON
ATTACK HELICOPTER MATRIX
--------------


2. (C) Murr plans to visit Saudi Arabia next month King
Abdullah will be back in Riyadh on August15 and is ready to
receive him to discuss financing of attack helicopters for
the LAF. Murr requested guidance from the USG on the attack
helicopter matrix prior to August 20 for use in these
discussions. ACTION REQUEST: We request Department consult
with DOD on this issue and provide us answer we can provide
to Murr.

BEIRUT 00001076 003 OF 003



SAMIR KINTAR RECEPTION:
NEITHER I, NOR MY FATHER, ATTENDED
--------------


13. (C) Charge said that the USG was dismayed at the
reception of Samir Kintar by the government and majority of
the Lebanese political leadership on July 16. Murr said he
could not explain it, but he was very forceful when he said,
"I was not there, or my father." Cabinet ministers,
including Elias Murr, and MPs, including his father Michel,
had been invited to the ceremony.

THE NEW MINISTER OF INTERIOR
IS A VERY WEAK MAN
--------------


14. (C) Murr dubbed new Minister of Interior, Ziyad Baroud,
as "very Jesuit," following the strictest traditions of the
Freres de Kaslik, which, according to Murr, include the most
xenophobic interpretations of Maronite prerogatives in
Lebanon. Murr said Baroud already is meeting with two
opposition figures, Marada leader Suleiman Franjieh and Free
Patriotic Movement Gebran Bassil, on a regular basis. Murr
does not expect that Baroud will be involved in the security
aspects of the Interior Ministry as "he was not even allowed
to pick his own staff. President Sleiman is picking his
staff for him." As a career technocrat who once served as
Murr's law professor, Baroud will not do anything to make
people angry with him, Murr predicted. "He is a weak man and
I do not like weak men," he added.

RAPPROCHEMENT WITH AMINE GEMAYEL
--------------


15. (C) In closing, Murr said rumors of an alliance with
Amine Gemayel's Kataeb party and his father, Michel Murr, a
longtime political godfather, are true. Typically, Elias
Murr claimed credit for initiating the improvement of the
relationship between the old political rivals. It started
with Elias Murr's conversation with Gemayal at the wedding of
President Sleiman's daughter. Gemayel invited Michel Murr to
dinner afterwards and the two struck a pact to fight against
Michel Aoun in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Murr
warned Gemayel to keep his son Sami in line and to keep him
from seeking secret liaisons with Michel Aoun as this process
moves forward or the alliance will be annulled. Elias Murr
believes Sami can be controlled by his father, especially
since everyone understands that the next round of
parliamentary elections will set the political course of
Lebanon for the next twenty years. (Note: Sami was among
the protesters at Baabda Palace during Syrian FM Moallem's
visit demanding the release of Lebanese detainees in Syria.
End note.)
GRANT