LEBANON: JUMBLATT WARY OF SYRIAN INTENTIONS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001075 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA, PM/FO ALSO FOR IO A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK P FOR HERRO MUSTAFA USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/22/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS SY LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: JUMBLATT WARY OF SYRIAN INTENTIONS, VIEWS TRIBUNAL AS BIGGEST STICK REF: BEIRUT 1068 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. William Grant for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Druze leader Walid Jumblatt remains skeptical of Syrian intentions toward Lebanon and continues to press for expedited action on the Special Tribunal as the only way to pressure Damascus, especially in light of recent French overtures toward Syria. Agreeing that released Lebanese prisoner Samir Kantar, a fellow Druze, is "not a hero," Jumblatt explained his presence at Kantar's welcome home ceremony in the Chouf as politically necessary. Jumblatt praised majority leader Saad Hariri's recent trip to Iraq as helpful in promoting better Sunni-Shia relations, reiterated his support for army intelligence chief Georges Khoury as the next commander, and stressed the need to overcome disputes among March 14 Christians as key to ensuring the majority's success in the 2009 parliamentary elections. End summary. ¶2. (C) On July 22, Charge Grant, accompanied by A/DCM and Senior LES Political Advisor, met with Druze leader Walid Jumblatt at his residence in Clemenceau. Druze MP Akram Shehayyeb also attended part of the meeting. SKEPTICAL OF SYRIAN INTENTIONS -------------- ¶3. (C) Commenting on Syrian Foreign Minister Moallem's visit July 21 to Lebanon (reftel),Jumblatt said Moallem raised new challenges when he said that "even if international forces are deployed in the Sheba'a farms instead of the IDF, then we will still consider the land occupied." This would further complicate the issue of Sheba'a, Jumblatt warned. On Sleiman's upcoming visit to Damascus, he said March 14 should stand by Sleiman to strengthen his position and avoid allowing him to fall into the trap of the expected Syrian charm offensive and lobbying by pro-Syrian Lebanese officials such as Michel Samaha. (Note: Sleiman's office issued a statement saying he would not travel to Damascus as soon as July 26, as reported in the media, but would wait until the cabinet has completed the ministerial statement that it is currently negotiating. End Note) ¶4. (C) Jumblatt did not believe Syria would establish diplomatic relations with Lebanon or take action on Sheba'a Farms until after the 2009 parliamentary elections, but would continue instead to deliver "vague" promises. "If March 8 wins these elections, then we will not have diplomatic relations with Syria," he predicted. He expressed support for disbanding the Higher Syrian-Lebanese Council as well as the subsequent treaties that were signed between Lebanon and Syria, notably the ones related to security and foreign relations. However, Jumblatt said PM Siniora asked to be cautious on this front because abrogating these treaties requires the endorsement of both parties. "Thanks to Sarkozy, Bashar is no longer isolated" -------------- ¶5. (C) Jumblatt criticized French President Sarkozy for opening up to Syrian President Bashar Asad, saying, "Thanks to Sarkozy, Bashar is no longer isolated." He feared Sarkozy and Asad might strike a deal to stop the investigations into the Hariri assassination or to divert its course, adding that the "Syrians are excellent at bazaars." Jumblatt reiterated his concerns about what he perceived as continuing delays in the Tribunal, admitting, "I am obsessed by it." He warned that action needed to be taken sooner rather than later since, now that the opposition has a blocking third of the cabinet, it will scrutinize every detail of the process, tying March 14's efforts to move things forward. ¶6. (C) Jumblatt disclosed that Sarkozy had sent his aide Claude Gueant to meet Saudi King Abdullah, whom Jumblatt described as the only staunch supporter of March 14 in the Arab world. Gueant reportedly told Abdullah that the Syrians were not involved in the 1983 Drakkar bombing in Beirut that killed 56 French servicemen, the same day the U.S. Marines headquarters was bombed. Gueant's implication, Jumblatt extrapolated, was that the Iranians were behind the attack, and since Imad Mughnieh was an Iranian agent, the whole case was "closed." This in turn would imply that the Iranians were responsible for the assassination of former PM Rafiq Hariri and others, further undermining the Tribunal, he warned. KANTAR WELCOME POLITICALLY NECESSARY -------------- ¶7. (C) Charge raised strong USG concern at the welcoming reception given to freed prisoner Samir Qantar. Jumblatt stressed that he did not attend the airport official ceremony. He discounted his participation at the rally held in Abey, Kantar's hometown in Jumblatt's Chouf Mountain stronghold that gathered a mere 500 supporters, as necessary for local political reasons. "I couldn't but assist," he explained, adding, "I know he is not that much of a hero." Jumblatt shrugged when asked whether he expected Kantar to run for parliament, noting that Kantar had told al-Manar he would not. ¶8. (C) Jumblatt criticized German Chancellor Merkel for blaming Siniora for participating in the welcome ceremony when it was a German who had brokered Kantar's release, adding that Merkel should blame Israel for releasing Qantar instead. He further criticized Israel for dealing with Hizballah on the exchange, rather than the GOL. CONCERNS FOR CHOUF -------------- ¶9. (C) Jumblatt said his current concern is to reduce tension in the mountains between Shia and Druze. He said that a field committee consisting of his MP, Shehayyeb and Hizballah's head of security apparatus Wafiq Safa was formed in order to fix any problems on the ground, a level of contact with Hizballah he deemed "acceptable." He noted that the Druze were still worried about Hizballah's continuing development of its fiber optic network, adding that the new Telecom Minister (and staunch Aounist) Gebran Bassil would do nothing to challenge it. ¶10. (C) Jumblatt said he is still waiting for the day when he will tour the Chouf and Aley areas along with Speaker Berri and Hizballah to alleviate tensions. Rival Druze leader Talal Arslan also would be acceptable, he said, but not Druze hard-liners such as Wiam Wahab or members of the Syrian Socialist National Party. He said he knew his overtures to Arslan during the May events was not a popular gesture, but one that he considered necessary to avoid a conflict with Hizbbalh. PRAISE FOR SAAD'S TRIP TO IRAQ, SUNNI- SHIA RECONCILIATION -------------- ¶11. (C) Jumblatt praised Saad Hariri's recent trip to Iraq, dubbing his meeting in Najaf with Shia religious leader Ali Sistani a good step in reconciling Shia and Sunnis that should be followed by further positive steps. Jumblatt stated that Najaf, the Shia holy place in Iraq, should be given greater influence in order to compete with Qom, to whom Lebanon's Hizballah Shia looked. Jumblatt, noting that Saad was coming for dinner that evening, said he did not know whether Saad intended to meet with Hizballah SYG Nasrallah soon. ¶12. (C) Jumblatt dismissed Saad's Shia advisors, Akab Saqr and Bassem Saba, as "not serious." On the other hand, the appointment of independent Shia Ibrahim Shamseddine, whom Siniora had lobbied heavily for (and whom Jumblatt himself is close to),as a minister could be an overture to the Shia in the long term. He stressed that Shamseddine should remain independent; if he is seen as being a member of March 14, "he is over," Jumblatt warned. He also praised Shia such as Saud Mawla ("my good friend") and Mohamad Matar, but again stressed the need for them to work independent of March 14. CRITICAL OF SECURITY FORCES -------------- ¶13. (C) Jumblatt expressed his support for current Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) Director of Intelligence (G-2) George Khoury as the next LAF Commander, noting that Hariri and Siniora oppose his nomination. He warned that Hariri and Siniora should be cautious in handling this matter because Aoun could benefit politically if the position goes to a Maronite appointed by Hariri (i.e., not Khoury) by accusing the Sunnis of once again usurping Christian positions. ¶14. (C) Jumblatt said the LAF is exhausted and even UNIFIL commander Graziano is complaining about the absence of the LAF in the south. Jumblatt said he is working with the acting LAF commander al-Masri to isolate the Chouf in the region between Mashghara and Niha by blocking roads to prevent Hizballah troops from entering this area; subsequently, the LAF troops currently deployed in this area could be moved the south. ¶15. (C) Jumblatt strongly deplored the corruption within the ISF, complaining that ISF chief Ashraf Rifi is doing nothing, while the role of Wissam Hassan, head of the ISF Intelligence department, will be reviewed in the cabinet by Aoun's ministers. Jumblatt praised newlyappointed Minister of the Interior Ziyad Baroud ut questioned whether he would be able to addres the corruption within the ministry. MARCH 14 MUST OVERCOME CHRISTIAN SQUABBLES -------------- ¶16. (C) Jumblatt said the main purpose of his dinner with Saad was to "reassemble" March 14 to gear up for the 2009 parliamentary elections. This will not be easy, he predicted, especially following the difficult process of cabinet formation that pit them against each other. ¶17. (C) Jumblatt said that he had had a "little dispute" with Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, notably over the Greek-Catholic seat that was occupied by Nehmeh Tohme, close to Jumblatt. Jumblatt said he had had to "sacrifice" Minister Tohme to find a compromise between him and a pro-Geagea candidate, with the result being the compromise appointment of Raymond Audi, CEO of Audi bank, as Minister of the Displaced. ¶18. (C) Jumblatt added that Geagea needs to understand that the Christians are not split between the Lebanese Forces and Michel Aoun; rather, some 30 percent of them are neither with Geagea nor with Aoun. A major test would be in the Baabda electoral district where, if March 14 is able to win 55 percent of the Christian votes, March 14 will win all six seats in that district. However, Jumblatt warned, if imposes his candidates in that district, March 14 will loose all six seats. COMMENT -------------- ¶19. (C) Asked what the USG can do to support the majority, Jumblatt's answer invariably is speed up the Tribunal. With his domestic constituency always at the forefront of his motivations, we are not surprised at Jumblatt's presence at Kantar's welcoming home ceremony, nor of his moderated approach to Hizballah, which we view primarily ashis way of keeping his options open until he detrmines which way the winds are blowing. We will continue to keep an eye on him, but progress on the Tribunal will go a long way to ensuring that he does not wander too far over to the dark side. End comment. GRANT