LEBANON: CABINET STATEMENT WITHIN DAYS, SAYS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001050 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA, PM/FO ALSO FOR IO A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK P FOR HERRO MUSTAFA USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS SY LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: CABINET STATEMENT WITHIN DAYS, SAYS MINISTER NASSIB LAHOUD Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. William Grant for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Newly appointed Minister of State Nassib Lahoud of March 14 expressed confidence that parliament would approve its ministerial statement by July 24. Lahoud is a member of the committee charged with drafting the statement, which met for the first time the day before. March 14 had prepared draft language for the statement as a starting point for the portion on Hizballah's arms. If the cabinet cannot agree on reasonable language, March 14 would rather defer the issue to the national dialogue rather than settling on vague compromise language like that included in the 2005 text that could be exploited by the opposition. Despite Syria's overtures, Lahoud does not believe it is serious about establishing diplomatic relations with Lebanon any time soon. End summary. MINISTERIAL STATEMENT READY BY NEXT WEEK -------------- ¶2. (C) CDA Grant, accompanied by Pol/Econ Chief and Senior LES Political Advisor met newly appointed Minster of State Nassib Lahoud at his private office in Sin El-Fil on July 18. ¶3. (C) Lahoud is a March 14 member of the ministerial committee that is drafting the government policy statement to parliament. He expressed confidence that the draft would be ready by July 22 and approved by the cabinet one or two days later. He reported that the committee held its first meeting on July 17 and will hold daily meetings with the goal of completing the statement by July 21. Lahoud said the committee asked each minister to prepare a short paragraph on their respective portfolios. The members of the drafting committee are, from the majority: Tareq Mitri, Nassib Lahoud, Mohammed Chatah, and Wael Abu Faour; from the opposition: Elie Skaff, Mohammed Fneish, Fawzi Salloukh and Gebran Bassil; and one of the President's ministers, Youssef Taqla. ¶4. (C) Lahoud said March 14 asked for two things concerning the policy statement: the need for the government first and foremost to guarantee the country's security, and the need to avoid ambiguous language (such as that used in the previous statement in 2005) that eiter side could later use to defend its positions. Lahoud explained that this request pertained primarily to the language on Hizballah's arms. If the majority and opposition cannot agree on language, March 14 prefers to agree to disagree in the statement and refer the matter to the national dialogue committee that will meet at Baabda palace under the chairmanship of President Sleiman rather than delay parliament's vote of confidence on the new government or settle on vague language that could be exploited by the opposition. March 8's reaction to both of these requests, notably that of Hizballah Minister of Labor Mohammad Fneish, was polite yet cautious, he said, indicating the opposition's willingness to begin the negotiations on a positive note. ¶5. (C) Lahoud then shared March 14's proposed language on Hizballah's weapons, admitting that it was a starting point that would be a "dream" if the opposition accepted: "Eight years after the liberation of most of the Lebanese territory that was occupied by Israel, Lebanon achieved another success with the liberation of the Lebanese prisoners held in Israeli jails and the recuperation of all the bodies from Israel. The Israeli violations of our national sovereignty and its continuous threat as well as its infringement of UNSCR 1701 impose on the state to put together a comprehensive defense strategy under the political authority of the Lebanese state." (Note: Lahoud later questioned why Israeli had conceded so much to Hizballah by liberating all the prisoners now. End note.) ¶6. (C) Lahoud relayed that he had warned President Sleiman on the draft text, commenting that despite Sleiman's strong words during his inaugural speech, he had since "watered down" his messages on Hizballah's arms. During the cabinet's first meeting with Sleiman on July 16, Lahoud said, Sleiman BEIRUT 00001050 002 OF 003 cited the 2005 ministerial statement, the 1989 Ta'if Agreement, the Doha agreement, Sleiman's inaugural speech (if useful),and UNSCR 1701 as the appropriate terms of reference for the new statement. In Lahoud's opinion, the Doha agreement provided the best language, while the 2005 statement provided the worst. He would have preferred to include in the ministerial statement some of the Doha language, which he deemed "super" and attributed to Qatari PM and FM Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim, notably the statement giving "the military and security authorities the exclusivity over the Lebanese and those residing in Lebanon." ¶7. (C) Lahoud did not foresee difficulties in agreeing on language on other issues, such as Lebanon's relationship with Syria, or electoral reform (whose technical aspects would not be addressed in the ministerial statement). CONTENT WITH CABINET -------------- ¶8. (C) Lahoud described the new cabinet as very good, particularly in terms of March 14 representation, citing Finance Minister Mohamad Chatah, Education Minister Bahiya Hariri, and Culture Minister Tamam Salam. He described Fouad Siniora as an "extremely happy" man following agreement on a cabinet because he was part of the solution to the ongoing political crisis in the country. He also expressed respect for President Sleiman, describing him as "a decent guy whom I trust," adding Sleiman is modest, not arrogant, and listens to people. He also praised the recent appointment of the Lebanese Ambassador to the Vatican Naji Abi Assi as President Sleiman's diplomatic advisor, calling him a talented career diplomat. ¶9. (C) Lahoud reported that last week, in the final stages of cabinet formation, PM Siniora had offered him either the portfolio of Minister of the Displaced or of Environment. He had told Siniora he preferred to become a Minister of State (i.e., without portfolio) to allow him the flexibility to focus on key issues, such as national reconciliation, the economy, and electoral reform. He again stressed the importance of ensuring security stability in anticipation of the 2009 parliamentary elections so that people would vote freely. SKEPTICAL ON SYRIAN INTENTIONS -------------- ¶10. (C) Regarding the upcoming visit of Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem to Lebanon, Lahoud said he is not confident the Syrians truly want to establish diplomatic relations with Lebanon. Citing some unnamed Arab official sources, Lahoud said Syria is sending a message that it is not wholeheartedly in support of diplomatic relations. Syria is not there yet, he said, and is warning that Lebanon has more to lose than benefit from the exchange of embassies." Lahoud downplayed criticism that Sleiman was going too far in opening up to the Syrians, explaining that Sleiman, walking a fine line between Lebanon's various supporters, was doing what he needed to do. ¶11. (C) Lahoud said that this is the first time in more than eight months that he is working in the office at his construction company, rather than at home, where he worked because of prevailing security situation over the past year. He noted there is an improvement in the security climate following the Doha agreement and subsequent election of President Sleiman and cabinet formation. Nevertheless, he needed to remain cautious, laughing that like in the movie "Jaws," it might not yet be safe to go back in the water. COMMENT -------------- ¶12. (C) We should continue to press our Lebanese contacts to pursue a ministerial statement that reflects the Doha agreement, which all sides accepted, and encourage our European and Arab allies to do the same. March 14's draft language for the cabinet statement on Hizballah's arms is strong, but, as Lahoud readily admits, is unlikely to gain BEIRUT 00001050 003 OF 003 the opposition's acceptance. We note, for example, that it makes no reference to the "resistance". Vague language like that contained in the 2005 statement would be a step backwards. End comment. GRANT