Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BEIRUT1047
2008-07-18 14:19:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beirut
Cable title:
LEBANON: OPPOSITION DRUZE ADVISOR: WE WILL WIN
how-toVZCZCXRO0902 PP RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHROV DE RUEHLB #1047/01 2001419 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 181419Z JUL 08 FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2511 INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2619 RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 2895 RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001047
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: OPPOSITION DRUZE ADVISOR: WE WILL WIN
2009 ELECTIONS
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. William K. Grant for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).
SUMMARY
--------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001047
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: OPPOSITION DRUZE ADVISOR: WE WILL WIN
2009 ELECTIONS
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. William K. Grant for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (C) Marwan Abu Fadel, senior advisor to opposition Druze
figure Minister Talal Arslan, doubts President Michel Sleiman
will successfully form his own parliamentary bloc for the
2009 election. He also does not believe the appointment by
March 14 of independent Shia Minister Ibrahim Shamseddine
will be able to draw Shia support away from his nominal
opposition allies, the Shia groups Hizballah and Amal. He is
confident the opposition will become the majority after the
2009 parliamentary elections, and wonders what kinds of deals
Druze rivals Arslan and Walid Jumblatt will make in the
run-up to the elections. End summary.
EFFORTS TO FORM A
PRESIDENTIAL BLOC
WILL FAIL
--------------
2. (C) POLOFF and Senior LES Political Advisor met July 15
with Marwan Abu Fadel, a senior advisor to the
newly-appointed Minister of Youth and Sports Talal Arslan, an
opposition Druze leader. Abu Fadel claimed that the efforts
by some within March 14 to push for the formation of a
parliamentary bloc aligned with President Michel Sleiman will
fail. He said attempts to shift Christian votes from
opposition Christian leader Michel Aoun to Sleiman will be
unsuccessful, if Sleiman even forms a bloc, a move which Abu
Fadel doubted.
OPPOSITION WILL BE
THE NEXT MAJORITY
--------------
3. (C) Instead, Abu Fadel confidently predicted, the
opposition will secure 70 of the 128 parliamentary seats in
the 2009 parliamentary elections. Abu Fadel added that he
does not anticipate political boss MP Michel Murr will
re-align with Aoun. Murr will, however, preserve his
relationship with the Armenian Tashnaq party, he believed.
Abu Fadel said that Aoun's fight for Christian rights
prompted majority leader Saad Hariri to make important
concessions to March 14 Christians in the cabinet formulation
process in order to counterbalance Aoun's popularity.
SHAMSEDDINE AS MINISTER
WILL NOT DRAW SHIA AWAY
FROM HIZBALLAH/AMAL
--------------
4. (C) Abu Fadel added that the appointment of independent
Shia Ibrahim Shamseddine as minister by March 14 will not
break Hizballah and Amal's tight grip on the Shia community.
He predicted, however, that the outcome of elections i the
Chouf, the Druze stronghold, depends signifcantly on "what
kind of deals" Jumblatt will mak with his rival Arslan,
noting that it is too soon to predict what will happen
between them.
OPPOSITION DRUZE CLOSE
TO HIZBALLAH
--------------
5. (C) A still-bitter Abu Fadel attributed his own loss in
the 2005 parliamentary elections to an action by Hizballah,
but said he nevertheless feels proud of Hizballah's
achievements in the Arab/Israeli struggle. When asked, Abu
Fadel said that Arslan meets regularly with Hizballah
Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. Abu Fadel disclosed
that if Arslan were to disagree with a position of
Hizballah's, he would privately meet with Nasrallah, but
would refrain from any public disagreement.
URGES PROPORTIONAL
REPRESENTATION
--------------
BEIRUT 00001047 002 OF 002
6. (C) Abu Fadel advocated an electoral law based on
proportional representation, believing such a system would
facilitate the emergence of new political figurs. According
to Abu Fadel, the current system i archaic and does not
fulfill the people's will. Concluding that the reforms
stipulated in the Boutros draft law are generally good, he
expressed skepticism that electoral financing reforms could
be realized. He explained, "It is extremely difficult to
monitor the flow of money in these elections."
EMBASSY SHOULD WORK
WITH OPPOSITION MORE
--------------
7. (C) Abu Fadel suggested the U.S. Embassy reposition itself
in the wake of newly-formed cabinet. Perceiving that the
Embassy devotes more time meeting with March 14 figures, he
recommended it enlarge its contact base to include more
regular communication with opposition figures, especially
those that have just joined the government.
GRANT
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: OPPOSITION DRUZE ADVISOR: WE WILL WIN
2009 ELECTIONS
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. William K. Grant for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (C) Marwan Abu Fadel, senior advisor to opposition Druze
figure Minister Talal Arslan, doubts President Michel Sleiman
will successfully form his own parliamentary bloc for the
2009 election. He also does not believe the appointment by
March 14 of independent Shia Minister Ibrahim Shamseddine
will be able to draw Shia support away from his nominal
opposition allies, the Shia groups Hizballah and Amal. He is
confident the opposition will become the majority after the
2009 parliamentary elections, and wonders what kinds of deals
Druze rivals Arslan and Walid Jumblatt will make in the
run-up to the elections. End summary.
EFFORTS TO FORM A
PRESIDENTIAL BLOC
WILL FAIL
--------------
2. (C) POLOFF and Senior LES Political Advisor met July 15
with Marwan Abu Fadel, a senior advisor to the
newly-appointed Minister of Youth and Sports Talal Arslan, an
opposition Druze leader. Abu Fadel claimed that the efforts
by some within March 14 to push for the formation of a
parliamentary bloc aligned with President Michel Sleiman will
fail. He said attempts to shift Christian votes from
opposition Christian leader Michel Aoun to Sleiman will be
unsuccessful, if Sleiman even forms a bloc, a move which Abu
Fadel doubted.
OPPOSITION WILL BE
THE NEXT MAJORITY
--------------
3. (C) Instead, Abu Fadel confidently predicted, the
opposition will secure 70 of the 128 parliamentary seats in
the 2009 parliamentary elections. Abu Fadel added that he
does not anticipate political boss MP Michel Murr will
re-align with Aoun. Murr will, however, preserve his
relationship with the Armenian Tashnaq party, he believed.
Abu Fadel said that Aoun's fight for Christian rights
prompted majority leader Saad Hariri to make important
concessions to March 14 Christians in the cabinet formulation
process in order to counterbalance Aoun's popularity.
SHAMSEDDINE AS MINISTER
WILL NOT DRAW SHIA AWAY
FROM HIZBALLAH/AMAL
--------------
4. (C) Abu Fadel added that the appointment of independent
Shia Ibrahim Shamseddine as minister by March 14 will not
break Hizballah and Amal's tight grip on the Shia community.
He predicted, however, that the outcome of elections i the
Chouf, the Druze stronghold, depends signifcantly on "what
kind of deals" Jumblatt will mak with his rival Arslan,
noting that it is too soon to predict what will happen
between them.
OPPOSITION DRUZE CLOSE
TO HIZBALLAH
--------------
5. (C) A still-bitter Abu Fadel attributed his own loss in
the 2005 parliamentary elections to an action by Hizballah,
but said he nevertheless feels proud of Hizballah's
achievements in the Arab/Israeli struggle. When asked, Abu
Fadel said that Arslan meets regularly with Hizballah
Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. Abu Fadel disclosed
that if Arslan were to disagree with a position of
Hizballah's, he would privately meet with Nasrallah, but
would refrain from any public disagreement.
URGES PROPORTIONAL
REPRESENTATION
--------------
BEIRUT 00001047 002 OF 002
6. (C) Abu Fadel advocated an electoral law based on
proportional representation, believing such a system would
facilitate the emergence of new political figurs. According
to Abu Fadel, the current system i archaic and does not
fulfill the people's will. Concluding that the reforms
stipulated in the Boutros draft law are generally good, he
expressed skepticism that electoral financing reforms could
be realized. He explained, "It is extremely difficult to
monitor the flow of money in these elections."
EMBASSY SHOULD WORK
WITH OPPOSITION MORE
--------------
7. (C) Abu Fadel suggested the U.S. Embassy reposition itself
in the wake of newly-formed cabinet. Perceiving that the
Embassy devotes more time meeting with March 14 figures, he
recommended it enlarge its contact base to include more
regular communication with opposition figures, especially
those that have just joined the government.
GRANT