LEBANON: OPPOSITION DRUZE ADVISOR: WE WILL WIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001047 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: OPPOSITION DRUZE ADVISOR: WE WILL WIN 2009 ELECTIONS Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. William K. Grant for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Marwan Abu Fadel, senior advisor to opposition Druze figure Minister Talal Arslan, doubts President Michel Sleiman will successfully form his own parliamentary bloc for the 2009 election. He also does not believe the appointment by March 14 of independent Shia Minister Ibrahim Shamseddine will be able to draw Shia support away from his nominal opposition allies, the Shia groups Hizballah and Amal. He is confident the opposition will become the majority after the 2009 parliamentary elections, and wonders what kinds of deals Druze rivals Arslan and Walid Jumblatt will make in the run-up to the elections. End summary. EFFORTS TO FORM A PRESIDENTIAL BLOC WILL FAIL -------------- ¶2. (C) POLOFF and Senior LES Political Advisor met July 15 with Marwan Abu Fadel, a senior advisor to the newly-appointed Minister of Youth and Sports Talal Arslan, an opposition Druze leader. Abu Fadel claimed that the efforts by some within March 14 to push for the formation of a parliamentary bloc aligned with President Michel Sleiman will fail. He said attempts to shift Christian votes from opposition Christian leader Michel Aoun to Sleiman will be unsuccessful, if Sleiman even forms a bloc, a move which Abu Fadel doubted. OPPOSITION WILL BE THE NEXT MAJORITY -------------- ¶3. (C) Instead, Abu Fadel confidently predicted, the opposition will secure 70 of the 128 parliamentary seats in the 2009 parliamentary elections. Abu Fadel added that he does not anticipate political boss MP Michel Murr will re-align with Aoun. Murr will, however, preserve his relationship with the Armenian Tashnaq party, he believed. Abu Fadel said that Aoun's fight for Christian rights prompted majority leader Saad Hariri to make important concessions to March 14 Christians in the cabinet formulation process in order to counterbalance Aoun's popularity. SHAMSEDDINE AS MINISTER WILL NOT DRAW SHIA AWAY FROM HIZBALLAH/AMAL -------------- ¶4. (C) Abu Fadel added that the appointment of independent Shia Ibrahim Shamseddine as minister by March 14 will not break Hizballah and Amal's tight grip on the Shia community. He predicted, however, that the outcome of elections i the Chouf, the Druze stronghold, depends signifcantly on "what kind of deals" Jumblatt will mak with his rival Arslan, noting that it is too soon to predict what will happen between them. OPPOSITION DRUZE CLOSE TO HIZBALLAH -------------- ¶5. (C) A still-bitter Abu Fadel attributed his own loss in the 2005 parliamentary elections to an action by Hizballah, but said he nevertheless feels proud of Hizballah's achievements in the Arab/Israeli struggle. When asked, Abu Fadel said that Arslan meets regularly with Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. Abu Fadel disclosed that if Arslan were to disagree with a position of Hizballah's, he would privately meet with Nasrallah, but would refrain from any public disagreement. URGES PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION -------------- BEIRUT 00001047 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) Abu Fadel advocated an electoral law based on proportional representation, believing such a system would facilitate the emergence of new political figurs. According to Abu Fadel, the current system i archaic and does not fulfill the people's will. Concluding that the reforms stipulated in the Boutros draft law are generally good, he expressed skepticism that electoral financing reforms could be realized. He explained, "It is extremely difficult to monitor the flow of money in these elections." EMBASSY SHOULD WORK WITH OPPOSITION MORE -------------- ¶7. (C) Abu Fadel suggested the U.S. Embassy reposition itself in the wake of newly-formed cabinet. Perceiving that the Embassy devotes more time meeting with March 14 figures, he recommended it enlarge its contact base to include more regular communication with opposition figures, especially those that have just joined the government. GRANT