LEBANON: WITH CABINET, BOTH SIDES TRYING TO HELP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001018 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/13/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: WITH CABINET, BOTH SIDES TRYING TO HELP CHRISTIANS FOR 2009 ELECTION REF: A. BEIRUT 1011 ¶B. BEIRUT 733 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. William K. Grant for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The transition to the new government announced on July 11 has begun, with some ministers already officially assuming their duties. The cabinet is expected to convene by mid-week to form a committee responsible for drafting the ministerial statement which is due by August 11. Negotiations on that statement could be contentious. Many of our contacts and media reports highlighted that the appointment of Christian ministers by both the majority and opposition blocs was done with the intention of improving the blocs' chances in Christian districts, expected to be decisive swing districts in the 2009 elections. The performance by ministers in "service ministries", which provide service voters see, also will play a pivotal role in swaying votes. End summary. NEXT STEPS AFTER CABINET FORMED -------------- ¶2. (C) Following the July 11 formation of the cabinet (Ref A),this week will be devoted to a series of procedural steps to complete the transition to the new government. Each of the newly-designated ministers will meet with his predecessor to assume his portfolio in individual ceremonies. The new Youth and Sports Minister Talal Arslan and Telecommunications Minister Gebran Bassil have already taken over their ministries, July 14 press reported. No formalities exist for PM Fouad Siniora or re-appointed ministers and they have shed their caretaker status and resumed their capacities as minister. The new cabinet will pose for an official photograph this week. ¶3. (C) It is anticipated that the cabinet will meet for the first time on or around Thursday, July 17 to form a committee responsible for drafting the ministerial statement. Each of the major parties represented in the cabinet will choose a ministerial representative for the committee, totaling four to five individuals. ¶4. (C) The government has thirty days starting from the date of its formation, July 11, to approve the ministerial statement and present it to parliament. Contacts have told us that the statement will be based on the Doha agreement (Ref B),with some predicting disputes on key issues including Hizballah's arms. Once the statement has consensus among the committee members, the cabinet then must approve the statement and, following this approval, parliament will hold a vote of confidence confirming the new cabinet. THINKING OF HELPING THE CHRISTIANS IN THE 2009 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS -------------- ¶5. (C) Many embassy contacts and media outlets emphasized the impact the allocation of cabinet seats has on strengthening the two sides' prospects in the 2009 elections. For example, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, a Christian March 14 stalwart, told CDA that the cabinet composition will be very helpful to him and other March 14 Christians for 2009. Following negotiations with his March 14 allies, Geagea got to name two ministers, double what he had in the 2005 cabinet. ¶6. (C) Mansour al-Bon, close to President Michel Sleiman, told us on Saturday, July 12, that the "generosity" to their Christian allies by both Hizballah, for the opposition, and Saad Hariri, for the majority, signals a serious effort from both sides to provide as much support as possible to their Christian allies' success in the next parliamentary elections. ¶7. (C) Christian districts are widely seen here as the decisive "swing districts" in the 2009 election. "Since the outcome of the elections in the predominately-Sunni and Shia BEIRUT 00001018 002 OF 002 districts has already been determined," al-Bon assessed, "whomever wins the Christian areas will determine the next majority in parliament. If Aoun takes all of the Christian seats, then Hizballah will rule the country and if the March 14 Christians win these seats, Saad Hariri will win the majority." ¶8. (C) There were tough negotiations over "service ministries" because they are seen as useful for gaining votes. So it is important to watch how the new ministers take advantage of their portfolios. ¶9. (C) For example, should Public Works Minister Ghazi Aridi, a Druse of March 14, make major strides in road construction, March 14 may be rewarded in the form of votes. If he undertakes projects in predominately Christian districts, that will bolster the position by March 14 Christians that the March 14 alliance serves Christian citizens' interests. Other service ministries to watch are environment (acquired by March 14),agriculture (retained by March 8),health (retained by March 8),labor (retained by March 8),social affairs (acquired by March 8),and energy and water (retained by March 8). ¶10. (C) A rumor circulating in Beirut is that Qatar will be providing one-year's supply of fuel to Lebanon, which will boost the popularity of the energy and water ministry, led by Michel Aoun's ally, Armenian Tashnaq member Alain Tabourian. KEY POINTS ON SELECT MINISTERS -------------- ¶11. (C) There are a number of interesting appointments in the new cabinet. March 14 appointed independent Shia Ibrahim Shamseddine, addressing a weakness in the prior cabinet where March 14 had no Shia representation. We would expect new justice minister Ibrahim Najjar, from Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces, to be highly supportive of the Special Tribunal given Lebanese Forces' vehemently anti-Syrian stance. Lebanese Forces also got to name the Environment Minster, doubling their representation compared to 2005, the result of Saad Hariri recognizing the importance of strengthening the Christian role leading up to 2009. ¶12. (C) Sunni Tamam Salam, the cultural affairs minister appointed by March 14, is seen as someone not as close to Saad Hariri as most other Sunni from March 14 in the cabinet. One hypothesis holds that Salam's candidacy was pushed by the Saudis, as a way to court Sunnis who would otherwise be reluctant to support Saad, after he lost their confidence during the May 2008 clashes. ¶13. (C) Gebran Bassil, son-in-law and advisor to Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun, the new telecommunications minister, could potentially cause problems in the government if he chose to because his ministry is the GOL's largest revenue source. As the minister, Bassil could stall revenue transfers to the treasury. He is certainly not expected to take action against Hizballah's fiber optics network, as his predecessor from March 14 tried to do. Bassil's presence could in fact facilitate Hizballah's operations, though it is believed that Hizballah requires only a blind eye, rather than any overt assistance from the ministry. ¶14. (C) Ziad Baroud, the new interior minister nominated by President Sleiman, is a technocrat and electoral reform expert who has the potential to make headway on some reforms in time for the 2009 elections. However, given his lack of experience on internal security, the other major part of his portfolio, we expect that there will be others who will have the lead on policy in that area. At a July 12 event organized for Lebanese youth to ask questions of the politicians, Baroud skillfully evaded questions put to him on security, saying he would prefer to wait until he is more familiar with his portfolio. GRANT