PRC-PAKISTAN: MFA, SCHOLARS REMAIN FOCUSED ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 000869 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2028 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PARM CH PK SUBJECT: PRC-PAKISTAN: MFA, SCHOLARS REMAIN FOCUSED ON STABILITY, BUT LESS SO ON MUSHARRAF BEIJING 00000869 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson. Reasons 1.4 (B/D). ¶1. (C) Summary: MFA officials and PRC scholars believe the new coalition government in Pakistan will be inherently weak and that extended political instability would likely lead to the intervention of the Pakistan Army. Though the shakiness of the nascent coalition Government will slow the development and expansion of bilateral economic ties, MFA officials and scholars are optimistic about bilateral relations. Stability remains China's priority in Pakistan, though with President Musharraf's authority waning, Chinese authorities and scholars no longer tout him as the key to a stable Pakistan. Despite the popular perception that the elections voiced anti-U.S. sentiments, Chinese scholars remain convinced that the United States has a key role in Pakistan's long-term stability. End Summary. ¶2. (C) MFA Asian Affairs Department Afghanistan and Pakistan Division Deputy Director Wang Lixin told PolOff in a recent meeting that China is pleased the recent parliamentary elections in Pakistan were conducted "smoothly and peacefully." Moderates "getting the upper hand" in the election is a positive development, according to Wang, and China will watch closely the actions of the newly-formed coalition government of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP)and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). ¶3. (C) Ministry of State Security-affiliated China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) South Asia scholar Hu Shisheng separately told PolOff the recent parliamentary elections delivered a "fractured" result for Pakistani politics, with parties primarily controlling only their historical ethnic and geographic bases. Hu said that based on the election results, none of the leading political parties can be considered national parties, and that any PPP-led coalition will be "checked by many forces" and have a limited decision-making capacity. PPP/PML-N coalition "marriage of convenience" -------------- ¶4. (C) MFA's Wang expects that the new coalition government will weaken President Pervez Musharraf's authority. She claimed that in the PPP/PML-N coalition's efforts to restore the 1973 Constitution, relationships among Musharraf, the Government and the Parliament will be "complicated," creating an "unstable factor" in the Pakistani political situation. ¶5. (C) CICIR's Hu said that the PPP/PML-N coalition Government will be more stable now that Nawaz Sharif's PML-N party has agreed to join the Government (rather than support the PPP but decline ministerial portfolios),but that the two parties' only common ground is revising the Constitution and reducing President Musharraf's power. Though Musharraf "will become a spent force," the long-term stability of the coalition, which Hu called a "marriage of convenience," is also doubtful. Hu noted that Nawaz Sharif "does not want to play second fiddle" to the PPP and will soon look for a separate path to political primacy in Pakistan. ¶6. (C) MFA-affiliated China Institute for International Studies (CIIS) South Asia scholar Rong Ying told PolOff recently that the PML-N majority controlling the provincial government in Punjab, will further undermine the Central Government's authority. Another cause for pessimism on the longevity of the PPP/PML-N coalition, according to Rong, is that the coalition's inherent weakness and its priorities of addressing the Constitution and checking Musharraf's authority will make it "unable to deliver" on practical economic policies that can help the Pakistani population. Army will not stay sidelined -------------- ¶7. (C) Because of uncertainties in the ruling coalition, Deputy Director Wang said, "sooner or later" the Army will intervene to play a role in balancing power among the political parties and Musharraf. Despite reports that Army Chief of Staff Ashfaq Kayani wishes to decrease the military's involvement with politics, "they will not retreat forever," Wang said. Both CICIR's Hu and CIIS' Rong agreed on the important role of the Army in maintaining stability in Pakistan, saying that the Army will not stand neutral if it believes the political situation has become too unstable. BEIJING 00000869 002.2 OF 002 ¶8. (C) Rong pointed out the complexity of the power relationships facing Pakistan, saying that he does not believe Musharraf will be impeached and that, in fact, he may come to the assistance of the PPP if its coalition with the PML-N falls apart. For now, Rong said, the question is whether Musharraf is the government's bridge to the Pakistani Army to help secure the government's authority or is the Army the government's agent to remove Musharraf permanently from the political arena? Any Pakistan Government would view China positively -------------- -------------- ¶9. (C) China is confident that whatever its form and composition, the ruling government in Pakistan will have a positive view of China, according to Deputy Director Wang. Both CICIR's Hu and CIIS' Rong concurred that China believes that as Pakistan's only "all-weather all-season" ally, friendly bilateral relations will continue under any government's leadership. ¶10. (C) Hu stated that China supported Musharraf in the past because he was the key to stability and had the decision-making authority that allowed China-Pakistan economic ties to grow. Hu commented that maintaining stability remains China's prime concern in Pakistan. However, because of Musharraf's recent political misfortune, China now stresses stability with less reference to Musharraf's role. ¶11. (C) Deputy Director Wang affirmed that China intends to keep a working relationship with President Musharraf. She lamented that unlike under Musharraf's rule, when China and Pakistan could efficiently negotiate bilateral economic development projects, the shakiness of the nascent coalition Government will slow the development and expansion of bilateral economic ties. United States still key to long-term stability -------------- - ¶12. (C) CICIR's Hu asserted that despite the popular perception that the recent election represented a negative verdict on Musharraf's perceived ties to U.S. policy interests, the long-term stability of Pakistan depends on the relationships among the new Government, the Pakistani Army, Musharraf, and the United States. Similarly, CIIS' Rong said that of the "three A's" of Pakistani politics -- Allah, the Army and America -- the importance of the United States has not diminished. For U.S. interests, CICIR's Hu stated, only the PPP can publicly support pro-U.S. policies without suffering the anti-U.S. backlash that affected Musharraf. He added that Nawaz Sharif has "his own ideas" on Pakistan's counter-terrorism efforts. RANDT