PRC-Tajikistan: China Displacing Russia, No

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 000687

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O.12985: 02/26/2028
TAGS: PREL PGOV ENRG EDEV PINR PBTS TI CH
SUBJECT: PRC-Tajikistan: China Displacing Russia, No
Outstanding Border Issues Remain, Says Tajikistan
Embassy (C-RE8-00054)

Classified by Political Minister Counselor Aubrey
Carlson. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) Summary: According to a diplomat at the
Tajikistan Embassy, Tajikistan increasingly tilts
toward China, which it regards as the best hope in the
region for a patron, supplanting Russia's historical
role. PRC-funded economic development projects
(primarily infrastructure investment) further
commercial links and win over ordinary citizens, who
suffer from an energy crisis and chronic
underdevelopment. Chinese "soft power" and security-
related training for Tajikistan officials also
contribute to better ties. The Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO) fails to provide a framework for
increasing regional economic activity, given its
continuing focus on political and security matters.
The SCO's lack of economic focus disappoints
Tajikistan and contrasts with growing bilateral
economic ties with China. A 2002 agreement with China
ending the border dispute was comprehensive, and no
outstanding border issues remain, the diplomat
claimed. End Summary.

Russia Losing Influence to China
--------------


2. (C) Tajikistan Embassy Political Minister Counselor
Likoev Mahmadali told PolOff February 15 that in the
last few years China has shown a strong and growing
interest in fostering Tajikistan's economic
development, in contrast to Russia's almost exclusive
focus on security in relations with the smaller
countries of Central Asia. Mahmadali indicated
Russia's approach appears self-serving to many in
Tajikistan, who believe Russia takes for granted its
historical ties with the country. China's focus on
highly visible economic activity with smaller
neighbors addresses the problems that ordinary
Tajikistan citizens face. The Chinese strategy,
Mahmadali said, has effectively ensured cooperation on
security and increased China's long-term influence
among ordinary citizens and leaders.

Infrastructure Investment
--------------


3. (C) Chinese infrastructure development projects in
Tajikistan include highways, hydroelectric power and
electricity transmission lines, for which private
investment plays an important part. Mahmadali
indicated that because this private investment is the
result of official prodding from Beijing, Tajikistan
regards it as a form of foreign assistance. In
addition to upgrading Tajikistan's domestic power
transmission system, Chinese investors plan a project
to connect the Tajikistan power grid to Afghanistan,
according to Mahmadali. Also, China completed a road
in 2006 that connects Dushanbe to Xinjiang through the
Pamir Mountains, which not only develops the economy
but facilitates other Chinese projects in Tajikistan.

"Soft Power" and Humanitarian Assistance
--------------


4. (C) China's global "soft power" enterprise is
manifested in Tajikistan through growing cultural and
educational programs, law enforcement cooperation and
scientific exchanges, Mahmadali said. China provided
a USD 4-million grant to the Tajikistan counter-
narcotics agency in Dushanbe, and has brought law
enforcement officials to Beijing for counter-terrorism
training. China also offered humanitarian aid during
Tajikistan's recent energy crisis, specifically by
repairing roads between the two countries, a pledge
made despite China's own snowstorm crisis. China so
far has not made good on this pledge, Mahmadali said,
lauding U.S. assistance as the first on the scene and
well-targeted to meet the needs of victims. He stated
that one reason for the slow Chinese response is that
Chinese assistance to Tajikistan is generally long-
term in nature and not geared toward emergency
response.

SCO Focus All Political/Security
--------------


5. (C) Mahmadali said that Tajikistan's participation
in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is
essential to its efforts to cultivate relations with

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6. (C) Mahmadali said that PRC-Tajikistan relations
improved after the 2002 agreement to settle a long-
standing territorial dispute. He volunteered that the
agreement has been successfully implemented and no
outstanding territorial claims remain on either side.

Bio Note
--------------


7. (C) Mahmadali is an experienced diplomat but a
newcomer to China. He spent his early career in the
Soviet Foreign Ministry as an Arabist, including a
tour at the Soviet embassy in Baghdad, where he claims
to have interpreted for visiting Soviet officials in
their meetings with Saddam Hussein. His current tour
was preceded by an assignment as a Political Counselor
at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Secretariat
in Beijing.
RANDT