FORMER PREMIER LI PENG REPORTEDLY SUFFERS STROKE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 000499

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2033
TAGS: PGOV PINR CH
SUBJECT: FORMER PREMIER LI PENG REPORTEDLY SUFFERS STROKE


Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson. Reasons 1.
4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Former Premier Li Peng recently suffered a stroke,
according to a longtime Embassy contact with high-level
connections. When pushed for details, the contact implied on
February 13 that the stroke was serious but would only state
that it had occurred "quite recently." If Li, in fact, has
been incapacitated by a stroke, hard-line forces favoring
slower reform will have lost a strong source of support. End
Summary.

Li Peng Stroke?
--------------


2. (C) Former Premier Li Peng has recently suffered a stroke,
longtime Embassy contact Zhang Guangyou (strictly protect),
retired former editor-in-chief of the Ministry of
Agriculture's official paper, Farmer's Daily, confided to
PolOffs on February 13. When pushed for details, Zhang would
only state that the stroke (zhongfeng) had occurred "quite
recently," but he implied that it was serious. Zhang is a
close associate of retired Politburo Member and former
National People's Congress Chairman Wan Li, with whom Zhang
meets frequently. (Note: Wan Li, who according to Zhang
lives in the Zhongnanhai central leadership compound, may be
Zhang's source for this information.)

Background on Li
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3. (C) Li Peng, long a powerful figure in the hard-line wing
of the Chinese Communist Party, was a Politburo Standing
Committee member from 1987 until he retired in 2002. He
served as Premier from 1988 to 1998 and as Chairman of the
National People's Congress from 1998 to 2003. As premier
during the 1989 pro-democracy protests in Tiananmen Square,
and as the public face of the regime during the military
crackdown, Li has borne much of the public blame outside
China for the Tiananmen massacre. (Note: Even though former
paramount leader Deng Xiaoping is believed to have made the
decision to forcibly suppress the pro-democracy protestors in
1989, Li's reputed advocacy for the use of force at the time,
as well as his hard-line stance in the years after 1989, have
earned him the enmity of many, both within and outside China.)

COMMENT
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4. (C) This is the first Post has heard of Li Peng's having
suffered a stroke. The source of this information, however,
is a credible one. If Li, in fact, has been incapacitated by
a stroke, hard-line forces opposed to faster reform will have
lost a strong source of support. Moreover, if Li dies, his
family, widely rumored to be one of the most corrupt families
in the top leadership, could potentially become vulnerable to
criminal charges and political attack. Li's death could also
prompt dissidents to reiterate calls for a political
re-evaluation of the 1989 pro-democracy movement.
PICCUTA