PRC-UZBEKISTAN: BEIJING FOCUSED ON CENTRAL ASIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 004480 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2028 TAGS: PREL PGOV ENRG EAID PTER UZ CH SUBJECT: PRC-UZBEKISTAN: BEIJING FOCUSED ON CENTRAL ASIA SECURITY COOPERATION, SAYS UZBEK DIPLOMAT Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). ¶1. (C) Summary: An Uzbek diplomat based in China reported that one PRC goal in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is for SCO members to cooperate on immediate dangers like transnational terrorist groups, such as Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HT),which China believes are a direct threat to security in China's western Xinjiang region. Our Uzbek contact told us Beijing is aware of China's image problems in the region, but its efforts to project soft power and win friends through economic development projects have met with mixed success. According to the Uzbek diplomat, China avoids providing real, long-term economic development assistance to Central Asian countries, because too much economic success in those newly independent states could provide inspiration to separatist groups in Xinjiang. End Summary. China's SCO Focus is on Common Security Threats -------------- -- ¶2. (C) Embassy of Uzbekistan Political Officer Batir Tursunov told PolOff November 26 that in recent years the Chinese have sought to emphasize increasing cooperation among Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states on common security concerns. He claimed that China has moved away from any idea that the SCO should evolve into a NATO-like military bloc. Tursunov explained that, several years ago, Chinese EmbOffs in Tashkent told him the SCO should evolve toward a NATO model. He said that China may fear an increase in tension between "other SCO members" and the West that would result from the emergence of a more formal military alliance. Tursunov stressed that Tashkent agrees with the current Chinese approach and opposes the development of a military bloc in the region. Transnational Terrorism China's Priority -------------- ¶3. (C) Tursunov argued that China has come to see transnational terrorist groups such as Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HT) and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) as immediate threats to China's national security that can be addressed in the framework of the SCO. HT and other groups are active in Xinjiang but have a base in Central Asia, moving freely through porous borders in the region, he claimed. To underscore the pervasive nature of the threat, Tursunov recalled his own experience, before he began his diplomatic career, when an HT operative attempted to recruit him in Tashkent. He stressed that terrorist groups' ability to recruit openly is more evident in Kyrgyzstan. Tursunov said that only through China's support in the SCO was Uzbekistan able to overcome Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan's opposition to a ban on HT in SCO member states. China backed the measure because of its concern for the potential influence of HT in Xinjiang, according to Tursunov. China's Image Problems Persist, Despite Assistance -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Tursunov said that Chinese officials have expressed concern about China's negative image in Central Asia, despite China's efforts to portray itself as a benefactor. He said that while governments may depend on Chinese support as an important counterweight to Russian influence, ordinary citizens view with suspicion the increasingly visible presence of Chinese people and products in their neighborhoods. He claimed that Russia is actively trying to foster this negative image of China in the region. Tursunov added that while the Chinese bring investment, it is mostly in infrastructure support for Chinese energy projects, and many people in Central Asia are frustrated at what they see as self-serving economic assistance. But Assistance is Appreciated -------------- ¶5. (C) China sees the SCO as an important tool in countering its negative image, not only through education and training programs, but also by demonstrating to ordinary citizens in Central Asian countries that China is a leader in the region and a source of investment and economic development resources, according to Tursunov. He stressed that because Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan do not share a border with China, people of those nations are less concerned about the rise of Chinese influence in the region. Local traders have found good business opportunities in importing Chinese goods, further countering the negative image, he said. Tursunov added that even as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan worry about increasing Chinese involvement in their BEIJING 00004480 002 OF 002 economies, their governments have come to rely on China for capital and technology to pursue economic development. He noted that leaders in Uzbekistan hope for additional investment and economic assistance as China continues to develop. China Hopes for Middling Growth in Central Asia -------------- -- ¶6. (C) Tursunov reported the sense among elites in Uzbekistan that while China does not want to see poverty and economic mismanagement lead to a safe haven for terrorism in Central Asia, China also does not want to see the region develop too quickly. He asserted that Beijing believes the East Turkistan Independence Movement (ETIM) draws inspiration from the independence narratives of culturally similar Central Asian states that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union. "Success stories" emanating from Central Asia could further embolden separatist elements in China, he argued. Beijing appears to want to provide just enough assistance to ensure the development of China's only real economic interest in the region (energy) without laying a foundation for long-term economic and social development, Tursunov claimed. Piccuta