A/S SHANNON LEADS U.S.-CHINA LATIN AMERICA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BEIJING 004152 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2028 TAGS: PREL PGOV ETRD CH XL XM SUBJECT: A/S SHANNON LEADS U.S.-CHINA LATIN AMERICA SUBDIALOGUE Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson, reasons 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) China views Latin America as a stable region with great economic potential, MFA Latin American Affairs Department Director General Yang Wanming told Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs Thomas A. Shannon during the U.S.-China Latin America Subdialogue in Beijing on October 16. Both sides agreed to take steps to "institutionalize" the Subdialogue and ensure its continuation. DG Yang said China is open to the idea of cooperating with the United States on development assistance in Latin America and asked for concrete proposals. China's trade with Latin America has expanded greatly in the past year, as has its military-to-military cooperation in the region. A/S Shannon characterized political tensions in Bolivia and the problem of narcotics trafficking and organized crime in Central America as two major areas of U.S. concern in Latin America. A/S Shannon asked for China's help in conveying to the Cuban Government the importance and usefulness of the U.S. offer of relief and reconstruction assistance following this year's hurricanes. End Summary. Overview of China's Relations with Latin America -------------- --- ¶2. (C) Latin America enjoys overall stability, and increasing integration through regional organizations such as the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) and the Organization of American States (OAS) has had a positive effect on the region, MFA Latin American Affairs Department Director General Yang Wanming told WHA Assistant Secretary Thomas A. Shannon during the U.S.-China Latin America Subdialogue in Beijing October 16. The region has been developing its economic potential, and the sustained economic growth of the last ten years is likely to continue. China and many Latin American nations, as developing economies, have common goals and interests, DG Yang said, adding that China appreciates Latin American support on sovereignty issues such as Taiwan and Tibet. Sino-Latin American relations have grown in recent years, he said, citing frequent high-level visits as evidence. China pays close attention to U.S. initiatives in the region, such as the Pathways to Prosperity program and counter-narcotics efforts in Latin American and Caribbean nations, Yang said. A/S Shannon stressed that the United States and China are not competitors in Latin America, as both share the goals of political and economic stability and shared prosperity for the region. He noted that China's engagement with Latin America can be conducive to the stability of both the region and the world at large. Institutionalizing the Subdialogue -------------- ¶3. (C) Both sides agreed that the U.S.-China Latin America Subdialogue is worth "institutionalizing" and that its continuation is in the best interest of all parties. Yang noted that the dialogue is important for China's comprehensive understanding of the region, while A/S Shannon stressed that Secretary Rice supports the dialogue. Potential Cooperation in Latin America: Development -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) China is open to future cooperation with the United States in Latin America, Yang said, so long as the opinions of the concerned Latin American nations are fully considered. He suggested the United States and China "tackle easy issues before thorny ones," and implement cooperation gradually. He noted that previous cooperation, including U.S. support for including China in the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB),was successful. Embassy USAID Development Counselor outlined possible themes for development cooperation in Latin America on issues such as health or the environment. Other possibilities include collaboration on education or employment projects to help youth in Latin America. She noted that private companies operating in the region are willing to participate in such projects because they, too, have an interest in increasing social stability. Yang reiterated China's willingness to cooperate and asked for concrete proposals to consider. BEIJING 00004152 002 OF 004 ¶5. (C) Recent hurricanes and the cancellation of an international donors conference in the wake of the Haitian Government's collapse have left Haiti in a dire situation, A/S Shannon said. He thanked Yang for China's contributions to the UN Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) and noted that since Haiti has established a new, functional government, there is room for Sino-U.S. cooperation there. Yang responded that China donates USD 20 million for peacekeeping operations in Haiti annually and has sent 7 tranches of peacekeepers totaling over 870 police. China also provided humanitarian aid following the hurricanes. He noted, however, that since the Haitian Government does not have diplomatic relations with the PRC, Haiti might not be a suitable venue for cooperation. The U.S. should propose alternate countries for a joint assistance project. Yang said that China is willing to stay in touch with the United States on cooperation in Haiti. ¶6. (C) Asked how best to approach China's assistance bureaucracy regarding cooperation, Yang said that the Untied States should first approach his Department, the MFA Latin America and Caribbean Department, and then he would bring his colleagues from other MFA divisions and the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) into the process as appropriate. Latin American Economic Situation -------------- ¶7. (C) A/S Shannon attributed Latin America's to date minimal fallout from the global financial crisis to the region's strong central banks, sound fiscal policies and increasingly diverse export markets. As China has been directly involved in the diversification of Latin America's trade portfolios, it has acted as a stabilizing force in the region, he said. Despite the current level of economic stability, a global recession could harm Latin America by decreasing commodity prices and increasing the difficulty in obtaining external financing, upon which more vulnerable countries in the region depend for financing development. Sino-Latin American Trade Relations -------------- ¶8. (C) China's trade relationship with Latin America is growing rapidly and continues to diversify, MOFCOM Americas and Oceania Department Deputy Director General Xu Yingzhen said. Trade surpassed USD100 billion for the first time in 2007, reaching USD103 billion split equally between imports and exports. In the first eight months of 2008, two-way trade volume reached USD95 billion, an increase of 40 percent over the same period in 2007. Trade is progressing into new higher-value-added areas such as aircraft from Brazil, wine from Chile, and beer from Mexico. (Note: MOFCOM's official trade statistics for Latin America are imprecise, as they include trade with non-Latin American nations operating from tax havens in the Caribbean.) Asked whether the Chinese Government engages in preferential trade practices with specific countries, Xu said that while Chinese companies may pursue strategies based on discrete markets, since China is a WTO member, it must treat all countries as equals, and as such there are no major intraregional differences in China's Latin American economic policies. MOFCOM has focused on creating a positive environment for Chinese companies by hosting commodity and trade fairs, investment forums and other workshops aimed at increasing Sino-Latin American understanding. The role of the Ministry of Commerce is to facilitate overall economic engagement, despite differences in purchasing power among nations in Latin America. China's Military Cooperation with Latin America -------------- -- ¶9. (C) Reading from prepared talking points, Ministry of National Defense North America and Oceania Department Director General Li Ji said that China has military attaches in 11 Latin American countries and the PLA has conducted military-to-military exchanges with 18 Latin American nations to deepen friendship and to protect national sovereignty. Frequent visits by defense ministers and military delegations and growing training programs play a key role in deepening military exchanges. Over 100 mid-ranking Latin American military officers have studied in Chinese academies and attended workshops at China's National Defense University. BEIJING 00004152 003 OF 004 China has recently begun sending military officers, martial arts teams and medical units to study in Latin America, Li said. He asserted that China's military exchanges with Latin American and Caribbean militaries are not aimed at any third country. ¶10. (C) Queried by A/S Shannon, DG Li said China's military relations with Colombia support the overall bilateral relationship. He emphasized the role of high-level exchanges and personnel training. Colombia's armed forces commander will soon visit China. A/S Shannon applauded China's cooperation with Colombia. Noting Colombia's difficult relations with its neighbors, A/S Shannon expressed hope that China will take a balanced approach to its military relations in the region. Regional Integration in Latin America -------------- ¶11. (C) Regional integration has been important for the overall stability of Latin America, A/S Shannon said, citing UNASUR and the OAS as examples. He noted that while increased regional cooperation is on the whole positive for Latin America's development, it has also led to some bilateral frictions, including between Argentina and Paraguay, between Ecuador and Colombia, and between Ecuador and Brazil. Brazil is increasingly taking a leadership role in both Latin America and in the world at large, A/S Shannon said. The United States has forged a strategic partnership with Brazil and is actively exploring new areas of cooperation. Past U.S. cooperation with Brazil has included a bio fuels initiative, as well as joint efforts to eradicate malaria in Africa. Trouble Spots: Bolivia, Organized Crime -------------- ¶12. (C) A/S Shannon noted that the overall political situation in Latin America is stable. Every nation in the region except one has undergone a peaceful democratic transfer of power. However, areas of instability remain, notably in Bolivia. He described the Bolivian and Venezuelan Governments' declaring U.S. Ambassadors to both countries persona non grata as regrettable and unjustified. A/S Shannon said the U.S. response has been moderate and emphasized that we have continued counter-narcotics cooperation and development assistance with Bolivia, but temporarily suspended trade preferences until such time that we become satisfied with Bolivia's counter-narcotics cooperation. DG Yang replied that China has been following events in Bolivia closely and has encouraged Bolivia's Government to resolve problems peacefully through dialogue. A/S Shannon described the threat of organized transnational crime in Central America, where national governments lack the capacity to take effective measures against gangs. The United States is helping to combat organized crime through measures like the Merida Initiative and has pledged USD1.4 billion dollars over the next four years toward this end. A/S Shannon conceded that deterrents created by the Merida Initiative in Central America may shift the activities of organized criminal groups into Caribbean nations. Thus, the United States has recently begun a security dialogue with Caribbean nations as well. U.S. Elections unlikely to affect Latin Policy -------------- - ¶13. (C) In response to DG Yang's question regarding a potential policy shift in U.S.-Latin American relations following the U.S. presidential election, A/S Shannon said that while the style of relations with Latin America may change, current policies have broad bipartisan support and core policies will remain the same regardless of which presidential candidate is elected. The Summit of the Americas to be held in Trinidad in April 2009 will provide the first major opportunity for the next U.S. President to meet his Latin American counterparts. This event will lay the groundwork for the next administration's policies toward Latin America. Cuba: Managing the Transition -------------- ¶14. (C) Managing Cuba's transition will be a key challenge BEIJING 00004152 004 OF 004 for the next U.S. President, A/S Shannon said. He emphasized that current U.S. policy recognizes that the Cuban people will decide the pace and scope of their transition to a post-Castro system. Following the hurricanes that struck Cuba in September, the U.S. Government offered humanitarian assistance directly to the Cuban government for the first time. Despite the U.S. offer to deliver aid via civil rather than military aircraft, and our keeping the offer out of the press as a sign of good faith, the Cubans ultimately rejected U.S. aid and published their response in the Cuban press before sending an official response via diplomatic note. A second offer of reconstruction materials remains pending. Given the positive Sino-Cuban relationship, A/S Shannon asked the Chinese to convey the importance and usefulness of the U.S. offer to the Cuban Government. ¶15. (C) Emphasizing the importance of letting the Cuban people manage their internal affairs, Yang replied that despite friendly relations with Cuba, China stands by the principle of non-interference. He urged the United States to lift its economic embargo against Cuba. A/S Shannon emphasized that the hurricanes could lead to a strategic threat to the United States by interfering with the ongoing process of transition in CUBA or by creating a large-scale migration to the United States. Yang noted that no one would benefit from instability in Cuba. ¶16. (U) WHA cleared this cable. RANDT