CHINA: ECONOMIC TRENDS IN COASTAL CITY OF QINGDAO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 004114 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2028 TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON EFIN ETRD CH SUBJECT: CHINA: ECONOMIC TRENDS IN COASTAL CITY OF QINGDAO Classified By: Econ Minister Counselor Robert Luke. Reasons 1.4 (b) an d (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Rising labor costs and declining exports are forcing companies to re-examine their business strategies in the coastal city of Qingdao, according to local government officials, scholars and a South Korean diplomat who met with EmbOffs during their October 22-24 visit to the city. Smaller South Korean companies have been particularly hard hit by the global economic downturn, appreciation of the Chinese Renminbi (RMB) and changes in government regulations. Despite hosting the 2008 Olympics sailing competitions, the Olympics brought Qingdao little economic benefit, and the global financial crisis feeds the city,s economic worries. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) EmbOffs visited Qingdao as part of the Embassy,s Virtual Presence Post (VPP) Program. EmbOffs met Bureau of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Vice Director-General Chunyu Xinli, Qingdao Association of Enterprises with Foreign Investment Executive Vice Chairman Wang Dongkai, Republic of Korea (ROK) Consulate Economic Affairs Director Kang Hyung-shik and Qingdao University Department of International Trade Professor Zhang Xibao. Large ROK Presence in Qingdao -------------- ¶3. (C) As the largest city in Shandong Province and ONE of China,s most important port cities, Qingdao has witnessed rapid export-oriented economic growth in the last five years. South Korea is the largest foreign investor in Qingdao, followed by Hong Kong, Japan and the United States. Just a one-hour flight from Seoul, Qingdao has a significant Korean presence. ROK Consulate Economic Affairs Director Kang reported that more than 200,000 South Koreans live in Shandong Province and roughly half of them are in Qingdao. Of the nearly 10,000 Korean companies in Shandong Province, approximately 60 percent are based in Qingdao. Economic Downturn, RMB Appreciation and Regulations -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Since 2007 declining overseas demand and rising labor costs have cut into export companies, profits and forced several small South Korean companies to leave Qingdao for Vietnam and other countries. ROK Consulate Economic Affairs Director Kang said there are three main causes for the "disappearance" of some South Korean businesses in Qingdao. First, the recent downturn in the global economy has hurt export demand. "Economic problems in the United States greatly reduced demand," Kang said. Qingdao University,s Zhang Xibao said labor-intensive industries such as textiles have been particularly hard hit. According to Zhang, short-term GDP growth prospects for the city are "gloomy" as the global financial crisis will further affect demand for Qingdao exports. ¶5. (C) A second reason that some companies have left Qingdao is RMB appreciation over the past year. Kang noted that businesses often ship goods to the United States only to receive payment months later when the dollar value has declined. RMB appreciation has had a "major affect" on many of the manufacturing companies with already thin profit margins. Several U.S. manufacturing companies in Qingdao, including Emerson Motor Technologies, said RMB appreciation is the biggest concern for their operations. ¶6. (C) Kang said changes in Chinese government regulations have also forced some South Korean companies out of business. For example, the new labor law requires companies to provide employees with costly benefits such as HEALTH care, and environmental regulations require expensive equipment or sanitation improvements. Kang said smaller companies have been targeted for labor law violations by local government officials who previously ignored the violations but are now under pressure to tighten enforcement. ¶7. (C) Qingdao Association of Enterprises with Foreign Investment Executive Vice Chairman Wang Dongkai confirmed that changes in labor regulations have affected smaller Korean businesses. While the new Labor Contract Law has not significantly hurt U.S. firms in Qingdao, some smaller South Korean firms have been affected because they typically do not adhere to the same labor standards followed by U.S. firms, Wang said. For some small and medium-sized processing, manufacturing and trade companies with already razor-thin profit margins, the additional costs of doing business were just too great. Complex exit procedures and simple bankruptcy have led some business owners to abandon investments and return to South Korea, often times leaving behind large debts and unpaid salaries. Most Companies Remain but Must Re-examine Strategies BEIJING 00004114 002 OF 002 -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) Despite the difficulties faced by some companies, Kang said that overall ROK investment in Shandong is still increasing by nearly 10 percent per year. New investors are especially interested in logistics, shipping and tourism rather than low-scale processing and manufacturing. Kang reported that most Korean companies remain in Qingdao, although declining exports and increased costs have forced many companies to re-examine their strategies. The largest companies, such as Samsung and LG, generally export half of their production and sell the other half domestically. However, China,s rising standard of living and RMB appreciation have led these companies to focus more on China,s domestic market. ¶9. (C) Executive Vice Chairman Wang also emphasized that most of the companies that departed were smaller Korean manufacturing companies involved in the textile, toy and garment industry. He said that despite the recent departure of smaller Korean businesses, over 8,000 Korean enterprises are registered in Qingdao with more than 4,000 actively conducting business. He emphasized that Qingdao continues to enjoy significant foreign direct investment from Korea and that there are 10 direct flights per week between Qingdao and South Korea, including flights to and from Seoul, Pusan and Taegu. Tightening Taxes on Foreign Firms -------------- ¶10. (C) Several U.S. company representatives reported that the Qingdao City government is more strictly enforcing taxation laws including property, sales and corporate taxes. One U.S. business contact noted that Qingdao City is trying to collect more taxes from foreign firms, particularly property taxes on industrial property. Qingdao University,s Zhang confirmed that Qingdao City is reducing preferential corporate tax treatment for foreign firms. He noted that the new Corporate Tax Law aims to unify corporate taxes for foreign and domestic firms to 25 percent rather than allowing foreign firms to enjoy preferential tax treatment at 15 percent. Several U.S. firms, however, stated that such regulations would predominantly affect new market entrants, while established businesses will continue to enjoy preferential tax treatment for the time being. Olympics Bring Little Economic Benefit -------------- ¶11. (C) As host of the 2008 Olympics sailing competitions, Qingdao invested USD 11.8 billion over the last five years to improve infrastructure and build an impressive sailing center but experienced little economic benefit from the Olympics, according to Bureau of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Vice Director-General Chunyu Xinli. Chunyu expressed disappointment with the relatively small number of tourists who came to Qingdao for the Olympics sailing competitions, citing security concerns and tightening of visa requirements as reasons for the low turn-out. PICCUTA