Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BEIJING4030
2008-10-23 09:31:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beijing
Cable title:
SWISS DEVELOPMENT DIRECTOR IN NORTH KOREA
how-toVZCZCXRO2223 OO RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHVC DE RUEHBJ #4030/01 2970931 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 230931Z OCT 08 FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0598 INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE RUEHSW/AMEMBASSY BERN 0791 RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 2301 RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 004030
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2033
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ECON EAID KN CH
SUBJECT: SWISS DEVELOPMENT DIRECTOR IN NORTH KOREA
DISCUSSES CENSUS AND FOOD SECURITY
Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson. Reasons
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 004030
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2033
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ECON EAID KN CH
SUBJECT: SWISS DEVELOPMENT DIRECTOR IN NORTH KOREA
DISCUSSES CENSUS AND FOOD SECURITY
Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson. Reasons 1.
4 (b/d).
Summary
--------------
1. (C) North Korea recently concluded its first population
census in fifteen years, with technical guidance and support
from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and financial
assistance from the ROK and Swiss Governments, according to a
Swiss contact familiar with the project. Our contact
speculated that North Korea might have been motivated to
conduct a census out of a desire for improved cooperation
with international financial institutions. Our source said
her North Korean interlocutors expressed belief that their
nation's economic fortunes will improve quickly following
removal from the U.S. State Sponsors of Terrorism list. Our
contact maintained that the current food situation is
"tight," but said North Korea will not face a serious famine
such as it did during the mid-1990s. The North Korean people
have learned how to "better cope" with a famine, she said.
End Summary.
DPRK Population Census
--------------
2. (C) North Korea recently concluded its first population
census in fifteen years, with technical guidance and support
from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and financial
assistance from the ROK (USD 4 million) and Swiss Governments
(USD 428,620),according to Swiss Agency for Development and
Cooperation (SDC) North Korea Director Kathi Zellweger
(protect). During an October 14 discussion with PolOff,
Zellweger said that 30,000 census takers, who underwent a
year of training, were deployed during the first half of
October for face-to-face surveys.
3. (C) The initial results of the census, which is expected
to be consistent with international standards, will be
available in spring 2009, with a more detailed analysis of
the data available in early 2010, said Zellweger. North
Korea's last census was conducted in 1994 and concluded that
that the DPRK's 1993 population was 21 million. Zellweger
speculated that North Korea was perhaps motivated to conduct
a new census in the hopes that demographic data would make it
easier for the DPRK to cooperate with international financial
institutions.
Delisting
--------------
4. (C) Zellweger's North Korean interlocutors expressed to
her "the naive belief" that their country's economic fortunes
will improve quickly following removal from the U.S. State
Sponsors of Terrorism list. Zellweger said she cautioned her
contacts that investments will not magically flow to the
country after the U.S. delisting, as numerous economic
sanctions on North Korea will remain in place.
Food Security
--------------
5. (C) Zellweger told POLOFF that a crop assessment currently
underway will provide a better picture of the potential
harvest shortfall. (Note: The last crop assessment was done
in 2004.) She noted that the current food situation is
"tight" and that there are "pockets of poverty." Moreover,
there is concern about this year's harvest because the ROK is
not providing fertilizer as it has in recent years.
Zellweger said there is a lively debate among agriculture and
development experts in Pyongyang about current and future
crop yields. Some of these experts have said that despite
fertilizer shortfalls this year, the crop yields will likely
not be affected until next year. Even if harvests are poor
this year, Zellweger said she does not expect North Korea to
face a famine situation similar to that of 1995-1998, which
hit the population "across the board." From their previous
experiences, the North Korean people have learned how to
"better cope" with a famine and, she added, average North
Koreans have more ad hoc methods to augment their food supply
than before. According to Zellweger, North Koreans now rely
on a broader food distribution network that includes their
workplaces and informal vegetable markets. Despite this
increase in illegal and legal trade in food, there is still a
portion of the population that is vulnerable to a famine and
could fall through the safety net, she warned.
6. (C) The Swiss Government, which is primarily focused on
providing development assistance to North Korea, also
BEIJING 00004030 002 OF 002
provides humanitarian assistance to targeted groups such as
children and pregnant women, Zellweger said. In 2007, the
Swiss Government provided 400 tons of milk powder (not
Chinese-produced milk) to North Korea for distribution
through the United Nations World Food Program.
7. (C) Zellweger had no information on the health of North
Korean leader Kim Jong-il but did express belief that it is
unlikely that a leadership struggle would lead to
instability. Food shortages, however, could lead to
political instability, she suggested, because factory workers
would "not accept" a famine.
A Unique Economic Model?
--------------
8. (C) Zellweger said her North Korean contacts dismissed
reports that North Korea plans to follow either the Chinese
or Vietnamese models of development. North Korea, because of
its unique circumstances, deserves its own path of economic
development, her contacts maintained. Zellweger opined that
China is not a good model for North Korea, particularly since
the North Korean population is 65 percent urban and 35
percent rural. That contrasts sharply with Chinese
demographics, where the urban-rural divide is the reverse,
she observed.
Development Programs
--------------
9. (C) Zellweger said that the Swiss Government operates
under "loosely worded agreements" with the DPRK Government in
implementing development programs and that the Swiss tend to
resolve problems by maintaining "good and pragmatic" working
relationships with North Korean counterparts. Zellweger, who
worked and traveled extensively in the DPRK for over a decade
as the Director of International Cooperation for Caritas-Hong
Kong, admitted that working in North Korea is not easy.
Nevertheless, the Swiss Agency for Development and
Cooperation (SDC) enjoys goodwill from the North Korean
authorities, and its various projects have achieved some
success, in her opinion.
10. (C) The SDC runs development programs involving
sustainable agriculture, integrated pest management for maize
and cabbage, integrated crop management, and sloping land
management, said Zellweger. She expressed hope that these
projects will have a long-term impact on agricultural
production. On another front, the SDC runs the Pyongyang
Business School, which brings in professors from the Hong
Kong Management Association for business and administration
seminars. She said that most of the local participants are
middle managers. Zellweger noted that the Swiss Government
recently sent three North Koreans to a university in Kunming,
Yunnan Province, to participate in an English language course
in capacity building
RANDT
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2033
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ECON EAID KN CH
SUBJECT: SWISS DEVELOPMENT DIRECTOR IN NORTH KOREA
DISCUSSES CENSUS AND FOOD SECURITY
Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson. Reasons 1.
4 (b/d).
Summary
--------------
1. (C) North Korea recently concluded its first population
census in fifteen years, with technical guidance and support
from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and financial
assistance from the ROK and Swiss Governments, according to a
Swiss contact familiar with the project. Our contact
speculated that North Korea might have been motivated to
conduct a census out of a desire for improved cooperation
with international financial institutions. Our source said
her North Korean interlocutors expressed belief that their
nation's economic fortunes will improve quickly following
removal from the U.S. State Sponsors of Terrorism list. Our
contact maintained that the current food situation is
"tight," but said North Korea will not face a serious famine
such as it did during the mid-1990s. The North Korean people
have learned how to "better cope" with a famine, she said.
End Summary.
DPRK Population Census
--------------
2. (C) North Korea recently concluded its first population
census in fifteen years, with technical guidance and support
from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and financial
assistance from the ROK (USD 4 million) and Swiss Governments
(USD 428,620),according to Swiss Agency for Development and
Cooperation (SDC) North Korea Director Kathi Zellweger
(protect). During an October 14 discussion with PolOff,
Zellweger said that 30,000 census takers, who underwent a
year of training, were deployed during the first half of
October for face-to-face surveys.
3. (C) The initial results of the census, which is expected
to be consistent with international standards, will be
available in spring 2009, with a more detailed analysis of
the data available in early 2010, said Zellweger. North
Korea's last census was conducted in 1994 and concluded that
that the DPRK's 1993 population was 21 million. Zellweger
speculated that North Korea was perhaps motivated to conduct
a new census in the hopes that demographic data would make it
easier for the DPRK to cooperate with international financial
institutions.
Delisting
--------------
4. (C) Zellweger's North Korean interlocutors expressed to
her "the naive belief" that their country's economic fortunes
will improve quickly following removal from the U.S. State
Sponsors of Terrorism list. Zellweger said she cautioned her
contacts that investments will not magically flow to the
country after the U.S. delisting, as numerous economic
sanctions on North Korea will remain in place.
Food Security
--------------
5. (C) Zellweger told POLOFF that a crop assessment currently
underway will provide a better picture of the potential
harvest shortfall. (Note: The last crop assessment was done
in 2004.) She noted that the current food situation is
"tight" and that there are "pockets of poverty." Moreover,
there is concern about this year's harvest because the ROK is
not providing fertilizer as it has in recent years.
Zellweger said there is a lively debate among agriculture and
development experts in Pyongyang about current and future
crop yields. Some of these experts have said that despite
fertilizer shortfalls this year, the crop yields will likely
not be affected until next year. Even if harvests are poor
this year, Zellweger said she does not expect North Korea to
face a famine situation similar to that of 1995-1998, which
hit the population "across the board." From their previous
experiences, the North Korean people have learned how to
"better cope" with a famine and, she added, average North
Koreans have more ad hoc methods to augment their food supply
than before. According to Zellweger, North Koreans now rely
on a broader food distribution network that includes their
workplaces and informal vegetable markets. Despite this
increase in illegal and legal trade in food, there is still a
portion of the population that is vulnerable to a famine and
could fall through the safety net, she warned.
6. (C) The Swiss Government, which is primarily focused on
providing development assistance to North Korea, also
BEIJING 00004030 002 OF 002
provides humanitarian assistance to targeted groups such as
children and pregnant women, Zellweger said. In 2007, the
Swiss Government provided 400 tons of milk powder (not
Chinese-produced milk) to North Korea for distribution
through the United Nations World Food Program.
7. (C) Zellweger had no information on the health of North
Korean leader Kim Jong-il but did express belief that it is
unlikely that a leadership struggle would lead to
instability. Food shortages, however, could lead to
political instability, she suggested, because factory workers
would "not accept" a famine.
A Unique Economic Model?
--------------
8. (C) Zellweger said her North Korean contacts dismissed
reports that North Korea plans to follow either the Chinese
or Vietnamese models of development. North Korea, because of
its unique circumstances, deserves its own path of economic
development, her contacts maintained. Zellweger opined that
China is not a good model for North Korea, particularly since
the North Korean population is 65 percent urban and 35
percent rural. That contrasts sharply with Chinese
demographics, where the urban-rural divide is the reverse,
she observed.
Development Programs
--------------
9. (C) Zellweger said that the Swiss Government operates
under "loosely worded agreements" with the DPRK Government in
implementing development programs and that the Swiss tend to
resolve problems by maintaining "good and pragmatic" working
relationships with North Korean counterparts. Zellweger, who
worked and traveled extensively in the DPRK for over a decade
as the Director of International Cooperation for Caritas-Hong
Kong, admitted that working in North Korea is not easy.
Nevertheless, the Swiss Agency for Development and
Cooperation (SDC) enjoys goodwill from the North Korean
authorities, and its various projects have achieved some
success, in her opinion.
10. (C) The SDC runs development programs involving
sustainable agriculture, integrated pest management for maize
and cabbage, integrated crop management, and sloping land
management, said Zellweger. She expressed hope that these
projects will have a long-term impact on agricultural
production. On another front, the SDC runs the Pyongyang
Business School, which brings in professors from the Hong
Kong Management Association for business and administration
seminars. She said that most of the local participants are
middle managers. Zellweger noted that the Swiss Government
recently sent three North Koreans to a university in Kunming,
Yunnan Province, to participate in an English language course
in capacity building
RANDT