SWISS DEVELOPMENT DIRECTOR IN NORTH KOREA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 004030 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2033 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ECON EAID KN CH SUBJECT: SWISS DEVELOPMENT DIRECTOR IN NORTH KOREA DISCUSSES CENSUS AND FOOD SECURITY Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson. Reasons 1. 4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) North Korea recently concluded its first population census in fifteen years, with technical guidance and support from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and financial assistance from the ROK and Swiss Governments, according to a Swiss contact familiar with the project. Our contact speculated that North Korea might have been motivated to conduct a census out of a desire for improved cooperation with international financial institutions. Our source said her North Korean interlocutors expressed belief that their nation's economic fortunes will improve quickly following removal from the U.S. State Sponsors of Terrorism list. Our contact maintained that the current food situation is "tight," but said North Korea will not face a serious famine such as it did during the mid-1990s. The North Korean people have learned how to "better cope" with a famine, she said. End Summary. DPRK Population Census -------------- ¶2. (C) North Korea recently concluded its first population census in fifteen years, with technical guidance and support from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and financial assistance from the ROK (USD 4 million) and Swiss Governments (USD 428,620),according to Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) North Korea Director Kathi Zellweger (protect). During an October 14 discussion with PolOff, Zellweger said that 30,000 census takers, who underwent a year of training, were deployed during the first half of October for face-to-face surveys. ¶3. (C) The initial results of the census, which is expected to be consistent with international standards, will be available in spring 2009, with a more detailed analysis of the data available in early 2010, said Zellweger. North Korea's last census was conducted in 1994 and concluded that that the DPRK's 1993 population was 21 million. Zellweger speculated that North Korea was perhaps motivated to conduct a new census in the hopes that demographic data would make it easier for the DPRK to cooperate with international financial institutions. Delisting -------------- ¶4. (C) Zellweger's North Korean interlocutors expressed to her "the naive belief" that their country's economic fortunes will improve quickly following removal from the U.S. State Sponsors of Terrorism list. Zellweger said she cautioned her contacts that investments will not magically flow to the country after the U.S. delisting, as numerous economic sanctions on North Korea will remain in place. Food Security -------------- ¶5. (C) Zellweger told PolOff that a crop assessment currently underway will provide a better picture of the potential harvest shortfall. (Note: The last crop assessment was done in 2004.) She noted that the current food situation is "tight" and that there are "pockets of poverty." Moreover, there is concern about this year's harvest because the ROK is not providing fertilizer as it has in recent years. Zellweger said there is a lively debate among agriculture and development experts in Pyongyang about current and future crop yields. Some of these experts have said that despite fertilizer shortfalls this year, the crop yields will likely not be affected until next year. Even if harvests are poor this year, Zellweger said she does not expect North Korea to face a famine situation similar to that of 1995-1998, which hit the population "across the board." From their previous experiences, the North Korean people have learned how to "better cope" with a famine and, she added, average North Koreans have more ad hoc methods to augment their food supply than before. According to Zellweger, North Koreans now rely on a broader food distribution network that includes their workplaces and informal vegetable markets. Despite this increase in illegal and legal trade in food, there is still a portion of the population that is vulnerable to a famine and could fall through the safety net, she warned. ¶6. (C) The Swiss Government, which is primarily focused on providing development assistance to North Korea, also BEIJING 00004030 002 OF 002 provides humanitarian assistance to targeted groups such as children and pregnant women, Zellweger said. In 2007, the Swiss Government provided 400 tons of milk powder (not Chinese-produced milk) to North Korea for distribution through the United Nations World Food Program. ¶7. (C) Zellweger had no information on the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il but did express belief that it is unlikely that a leadership struggle would lead to instability. Food shortages, however, could lead to political instability, she suggested, because factory workers would "not accept" a famine. A Unique Economic Model? -------------- ¶8. (C) Zellweger said her North Korean contacts dismissed reports that North Korea plans to follow either the Chinese or Vietnamese models of development. North Korea, because of its unique circumstances, deserves its own path of economic development, her contacts maintained. Zellweger opined that China is not a good model for North Korea, particularly since the North Korean population is 65 percent urban and 35 percent rural. That contrasts sharply with Chinese demographics, where the urban-rural divide is the reverse, she observed. Development Programs -------------- ¶9. (C) Zellweger said that the Swiss Government operates under "loosely worded agreements" with the DPRK Government in implementing development programs and that the Swiss tend to resolve problems by maintaining "good and pragmatic" working relationships with North Korean counterparts. Zellweger, who worked and traveled extensively in the DPRK for over a decade as the Director of International Cooperation for Caritas-Hong Kong, admitted that working in North Korea is not easy. Nevertheless, the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) enjoys goodwill from the North Korean authorities, and its various projects have achieved some success, in her opinion. ¶10. (C) The SDC runs development programs involving sustainable agriculture, integrated pest management for maize and cabbage, integrated crop management, and sloping land management, said Zellweger. She expressed hope that these projects will have a long-term impact on agricultural production. On another front, the SDC runs the Pyongyang Business School, which brings in professors from the Hong Kong Management Association for business and administration seminars. She said that most of the local participants are middle managers. Zellweger noted that the Swiss Government recently sent three North Koreans to a university in Kunming, Yunnan Province, to participate in an English language course in capacity building RANDT