WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO WREAK HAVOC; CENTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BEIJING 000390 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2033 TAGS: PGOV PROP ECON ELTN SOCI CH SUBJECT: WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO WREAK HAVOC; CENTER FOCUSES ON ENERGY AND TRANSPORTATION; MORE SNOW PREDICTED REF: A. BEIJING 386 ¶B. BEIJING 335 ¶C. GUANGZHOU 62 AND PREVIOUS BEIJING 00000390 001.2 OF 004 Classified By: Political Internal Unit Chief Dan Kritenbrink. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) China's worst snowstorm in 50 years continues to wreak havoc across southern and central parts of the country. Although some transportation networks over the past two days have started to return to normal, hundreds of thousands of travelers remain stranded and millions of residents face hardships caused by blackouts and energy shortages. Meanwhile, the weather refuses to cooperate: China's National Meteorological Center issued an "orange alert" on February 1, predicting medium-to-heavy snow throughout much of the disaster areas. PRC leaders have emphasized ensuring energy supplies and restoring transportation networks, with President Hu Jintao visiting coal mines in Shanxi Province and a coal-related port in Hebei Province on January 31. The State Council held a special press conference February 1, during which officials praised the Government's hard work and "strong and timely measures." China's propaganda apparatus has told reporters not to dwell on deficiencies in the Government's response but instead focus on positive, forward-looking coverage. Regarding the storm's economic impact, a top government statistician said its effect should be short-term in nature but that the storms would likely prompt the Government to review the adequacy of its infrastructure and its capacity to monitor major disasters. Damage to the winter wheat crop and rapid increases in produce prices have prompted speculation that inflation, presently the Government's top economic concern, will hover at 11-year highs for longer than expected. End Summary. State Council Holds Special Press Conference -------------- ¶2. (U) As PRC authorities continue to grapple with the havoc caused in southern and central China by the worst snowstorm to hit the country in 50 years, the State Council Information Office (SCIO) convened a special press conference on the afternoon of February 1 to review the storm's impact and describe the government's relief efforts. Representatives from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), Ministry of Civil Affairs, Ministry of Railways, Ministry of Communication and the General Administration of Civil Aviation of China (CAAC) spoke at the event. Officials stated that the abnormal weather has affected 19 provinces, with Hunan, Hubei, Guangxi, Jiangxi and Anhui having been hit the hardest. By January 31, the storms had caused RMB 53.7 billion in economic losses, 60 deaths and the evacuation of 1.75 million people. In response to questions from domestic and overseas journalists, officials denied that preparations for the disaster and subsequent relief work had been too slow or insufficient. The officials praised the hard work and "strong, timely measures" of Government departments on all levels and expressed confidence that life will soon return to normal and China's "rapid economic growth will continue." Deputy Director of the NDRC Bureau of Economic Operations Zhu Hongren said the Government had established a "command center" under the NDRC's guidance that is coordinating official relief efforts. More Bad Weather Forecasted -------------- ¶3. (C) The weather continues to make efforts to respond to the snow disaster more difficult: China's National Meteorological Center (NMC) on February 1 issued an "Orange Alert," predicting medium-to-heavy snows for today in various areas of Guizhou, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces. In addition, the NMC warned of freezing rain in parts of Guizhou, Hunan and Jiangxi. The Center also issued guidance for the public to avoid unnecessary outdoor travel and to shore up temporary structures vulnerable to collapse. (Note: Construction workers in China typically live on job sites in pre-fabricated, temporary dwellings that frequently collapse, even without the added weight of snow.) "Transport Networks Returning to Normal" -------------- ¶4. (U) Though transportation networks have been affected most by the storms, the NDRC announced on February 1 that some progress was being made in returning at least some networks to normal, even as serious problems remained. According to BEIJING 00000390 002.2 OF 004 an NDRC statement carried by Xinhua, the Jing-Zhu Highway (a primary artery from Beijing to Zhuhai in Guangdong Province) was no longer blocked but some sections remained extremely jammed. The NDRC said that as of Thursday evening, 12,990 vehicles on the highway carrying 54,376 passengers were still "held up" in traffic. The NDRC release said railway officials were moving diesel engines onto areas of the Beijing-Guangzhou line to pull trains in sections where electricity remained out. The NDRC reported that air travel was returning to "normal," though 135 flights were cancelled January 30-31 and over 900 were delayed. About 22,000 passengers remain stranded in airports, 6,100 in Hunan Province airports alone. According to the Xinhua News Agency Website, on Thursday, eight medium and small sized airports remained closed and 900 flights experienced delays. "The Coal is Getting Through": Hu Jintao Visits Miners -------------- -------------- ¶5. (U) The personal intervention of top leaders to ensure energy supplies was another focal point of official media on February 1. Chinese newspapers gave heavy coverage to President Hu Jintao's visit January 31 to coal mines in Datong, Shanxi Province, and to Qinhuangdao Port in Hebei Province, though which much coal is shipped. The People's Daily reported Hu's trip under the headline "Work Together to Win a Full-Fledged Victory on Countering Disaster." China's media February 1 also devoted extensive coverage to Premier Wen Jiabao's speech to a national conference on safeguarding supplies of power, coal, and oil. One Xinhua release reported that coal shipments on the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal have doubled since January 25. Coal barges are also getting preferential treatment at locks and other choke points along waterways. Meanwhile, Xinhua News Agency reported the People's Liberation Army Air Force has devoted four IL-76 transport aircraft to the relief efforts. "Media Should Not Dwell on Past Mistakes" -------------- ¶6. (C) Reflecting the center's desire to carefully manage press coverage of the disaster, Zhou Qing'an (strictly protect),a journalism professor at Tsinghua University and an editorial writer for the Xinjing Bao (Beijing News) newspaper, told PolOff February 1 that the Communist Party Propaganda Department issued a directive that media cannot "reflect" (fansi) upon past events leading up to the disaster, but instead must give positive, forward-looking coverage of the current Government response. Still, the media can get away with criticizing local governments, i.e., those below the provincial level, for poor crisis management. Zhou penned an editorial in the January 31 edition of Xinjing Bao praising the efforts of the many ordinary citizens who have provided help to stranded travelers while criticizing the profiteering that had occurred in a "small number" of areas. Some shop owners in areas with many stranded travelers, Zhou wrote, were charging as much as RMB 50 (USD 7) for a package of instant noodles (an item that normally costs around RMB 3). On February 1, the Xinjing Bao ran another editorial (not penned by Zhou) calling on China Central Television, government monopolies like oil-giant Sinopec and rich Chinese to do more to raise money for disaster relief. "Domestic Media Does Not Have Ful Picture" -------------- ¶7. (C) Zhou further commented that China's own media does not have a complete grasp of the story due to the extreme difficulties of traveling to and reporting from the disaster areas. Xinjing Bao has dispatched 10 reporters to Guizhou and Hunan Provinces, but most are themselves stuck in the transport gridlock and unable to file stories. One Xinjing Bao journalist who made it to Guizhou, Zhou said, has had to file his story over the phone due to the lack of electricity there. "Three Days Without Food" -------------- ¶8. (U) Despite the prevalence of positive reporting, some newspapers still ran less-than-rosy accounts of the disaster. The Nanfang Dushi Bao (Southern Metropolis) carried a story February 1 of a bus that has been stuck in traffic on the Jing-Zhu Highway since January 25. The paper quoted the bus driver as saying the passengers had gone without food for three days. As of mid-day January 31, the paper reported, the bus had been diverted to a secondary road and the driver was looking for a town where the passengers could get food. Some buses on the Jing-Zhu have been stranded for up to eight days, the story said. BEIJING 00000390 003.2 OF 004 ¶9. (SBU) International criticism of China's slow official response is leaking back into the country. The Global Times, one of several papers in China consisting almost entirely of translated foreign news articles, ran stories February 1 from the U.S. and South Korean press commenting on how the storm reveals China's economic vulnerabilities and that the Chinese government initially showed a lack of concern over the snowstorms. From ConGen Chengdu: Guizhou Braces For More Snow -------------- -------------- ¶10. (SBU) One of the areas hardest hit by the storm is Guizhou, China's poorest province. A Guizhou Foreign Affairs Office official told Chengdu ConGenOff February 1 that the weather in Guizhou is getting "better," but the overall situation remains "serious." Expressways are open to limited, low-speed transportation, he said, and widespread areas of the Province, including parts of Guiyang City, are still experiencing power outages. Local press reports reveal concern, especially in southeast Qian Prefecture, that more bad weather is on the way. Market prices for food in Kaili and Qian Prefecture, according to local media, are up as much as 100 percent. Qian Prefecture badly needs additional food supplies and candles, press reports said. (Note: One concern in Guizhou is that many remote mountain villages, populated largely by the elderly and young children as most working-age people have migrated to the cities, have been cut off for days now without power. Demonstrating the seriousness of the situation, one local official was quoted in regional media as saying these villages will have to hold out by relying on "traditional hunting skills." End note.) Storms Reveal Weak Infrastructure -------------- ¶11. (C) As for the economic impact of the storms, National Bureau of Statistics Director General of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics Li Xiaochao commented to EconOff February 1 that the effect of the snowstorms on economic performance is likely to be short-term in nature. He suggested, however, that China needs a better system for assessing damage and informing policy decisions when disasters strike. He compared the snowstorms to the 2003 SARS outbreak, noting that officials learned from weaknesses exposed in the Government's response to launch reforms in the public health system. Li predicted the storms would prompt the Chinese Government to review the adequacy of its infrastructure and its capacity to monitor and evaluate conditions when challenged by an event of this magnitude. Other economists have suggested the storms will prompt China to invest further in transportation and power transmission infrastructure and that this could help offset economic slowing caused by an anticipated downturn in developed country export markets. Food Inflation Troublesome -------------- ¶12. (SBU) There is growing concern that the snowstorms will further drive up inflation, the government's top economic concern, just as the National People's Congress (NPC) prepares to convene March 5. The consumer price index, primary driven by pork and cooking oil price increases, has been running above six percent since last August and has on two occasions hit 11-year highs. Two of our economist contacts have already warned that the January data will very possibly exceed seven percent, creating headlines chronicling yet another mini-record in the weeks before the NPC. Depending on the scale of the crop damage due the snowstorms and the duration of food/goods distribution problems, food prices may continue their upward climb. State media has reported vegetable prices up more than 50 percent in 11 provinces and up 100 percent in some areas. ¶13. (SBU) Royal Bank of Scotland China Economist Ben Simpfendorfer pointed out in a February 1 research note that grain prices have recently started rising, adding another element to food inflation. Apparent storm damage to the winter wheat crop (85 percent of wheat production) would exacerbate this trend, he noted. Seemingly mindful of these concerns, Chen Xiwen, director of the Office of the Central Leading Group on Rural Work, told media January 31 that although there has been a "catastrophic" impact on fresh vegetables and fruits in some areas, inflation should come in around 6.5 percent for January. Beijing West Station Calm, Lots of Tickets To Spare -------------- -------------- BEIJING 00000390 004.2 OF 004 ¶14. (SBU) Although the situation elsewhere in China remains serious, the impact of the storm remains hard to detect in sunny Beijing. PolOff visited Beijing's West Station, the starting point for many south-bound trains, January 31. The station was calm and not crowded, though the People's Armed Police presence was greater than at the main Beijing train station the day before (ref B). A migrant from Henan Province told PolOff he had four relatives stuck in Guangzhou unable to purchase tickets to Henan. The man noted pessimistically that more snow was still expected. Two other migrants, however, from Hubei and Hunan Provinces, respectively, commented that train tickets, usually impossibly scarce the week prior to the Chinese New Year holiday, are now readily available, apparently because so many travelers have cancelled plans to head south. The same was not true, however, for bus tickets. PolFSN contacted Beijing's main bus station January 31 and was told all buses to Wuhan, Hubei Province are suspended until further notice. RANDT