SUDAN: PRC MFA SUPPORTS POSTPONING ICC PROCEEDINGS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 003701

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2028
TAGS: PGOV PREL UNSC SU CM
SUBJECT: SUDAN: PRC MFA SUPPORTS POSTPONING ICC PROCEEDINGS
AGAINST BASHIR

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson. Reasons 1.
4 (b/d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: China predicts "disastrous results" if the
International Criminal Court (ICC) issues an arrest warrant
for Sudanese President Bashir and urges the United States to
support a suspension of ICC proceedings against Bashir, MFA
West Asian and North African Department Sudan Office Director
Feng Biao told POLOFF September 23. During his recent visit
to Sudan, Assistant Foreign Minister Zhai Jun urged Sudanese
officials to remain "cool-headed" about the ICC indictment,
according to Feng. Feng insisted that only a small
percentage of weapons sold to Sudan come from China and that
Sudan "guarantees the end-user agreements." In a September 5
meeting, a Chinese academic expert on Africa told POLOFF that
the ICC indictment could lead to a breakdown of the fragile
Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). She predicted China
will not take the lead in pushing the UN Security Council
(UNSC) to suspend the indictment. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) MFA West Asian and North African Department Sudan
Office Director Feng Biao briefed POLOFF on September 23 on
AFM Zhai Jun's recent visit to Sudan. POLOFF also discussed
Sudan with Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) African
Studies Division Director He Wenping on September 5.

ICC Indictment of Bashir
--------------


3. (C) MFA's Feng said one of AFM Zhai Jun's main goals
during his August 29-September 1 visit to Sudan was to
discuss the ICC indictment of President Bashir. In meetings
with Sudanese officials, including President Bashir and
Presidential Advisor Nafie Ali Nafie, AFM Zhai counseled
Sudanese officials to remain "calm and cool-headed" about the
threatened ICC arrest warrant and urged continued cooperation
with the international community to solve the Darfur issue.
Based on AFM Zhai's conversations, Feng predicted "disastrous
results" if the ICC issues an arrest warrant for President
Bashir. Feng said an ICC arrest warrant could hurt UAMID
operations, set back implementation of te CPA and lead the
Sudanese Government to refue to cooperate with the ICC, halt
coperation with the UN and cancel general elections
scheduled for 2009. An indictment might even lead to a
situation like in the 1990s, when civil war raged and the
Sudanese Government refused to cooperate with the outside
world. Feng argued that in any case an arrest warrant would
be pointless because the ICC cannot arrest President Bashir,
who would avoid traveling to other countries. For these
reasons, China urged the United States to support a UNSC
resolution suspending the ICC indictment. In response,
PolOff said that the United States has not yet decided
whether or not to support such a resolution and that we hope
to see tangible progress on the ground in Darfur.


4. (C) CASS's He Wenping echoed the view of the MFA, calling
the ICC indictment "ridiculous" and predicting that it could
lead to a breakdown in the fragile peace agreement between
North and South Sudan. However, she argued that China will
not take the lead in pushing the UNSC to suspend the
indictment because doing so would give "anti-China forces"
and human rights activists an excuse to criticize China.
Rather, China will continue to use "quiet diplomacy" to
pressure Sudan.

Chinese Arms Sales to Sudan
--------------


5. (C) Feng said only a small percentage of weapons sold to
Sudan come from China. He said media reports that Chinese
weapons are fueling the conflict in Darfur are "ridiculous"
and those who make such accusations "have ulterior motives."
Although he acknowledged that China "cannot guarantee 100
percent" that its weapons are not going to Darfur, he
stressed that China always requires end-user agreements and
that Sudan has "given guarantees that they honor those
agreements." CASS's He Wenping claimed that China's weapons
sales to Sudan constituted only eight percent of Sudanese
weapons purchases in 2007. She acknowledged, however the
lack of transparency in Chinese arms sales and the
possibility that some Chinese weapons could have been sold to
Sudan by third parties.

BEIJING 00003701 002 OF 002



Rebels Mostly to Blame
--------------


6. (C) MFA's Feng said the Sudanese Government is willing to
negotiate with rebel groups in Darfur and blamed the lack of
progress in Darfur on the rebel groups' unwillingness to
negotiate. He pointed to President Bashir's recently
announced "Sudan People's Initiative" as a sign of the
Sudanese Government's commitment to making progress in Darfur.

Slow Deployment of UNAMID
--------------


7. (C) Feng expressed disappointment about the slow
deployment of the UNAMID forces, but argued that the "primary
responsibility lies with UN, not the Sudanese Government."
He reported that 315 Chinese military engineers deployed to
Sudan have not encountered any major problems in Sudan.

Upcoming Visits
--------------


8. (C) Feng said that the MFA looks forward to discussing
Sudan with U.S. officials at the upcoming U.S.-China
Sub-dialogue on Africa. He reported that Ambassador Liu
Guijin, the Chinese Government's Special Representative on
Darfur, will visit Washington October 20 and would like to
meet with Special Envoy Williamson.
RANDT