PRC FOREIGN POLICY EXPERTS' SNAP JUDGMENTS ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 003303

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/26/2028
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM CH
SUBJECT: PRC FOREIGN POLICY EXPERTS' SNAP JUDGMENTS ON
IMPACT OF THE OLYMPICS

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson. Reasons 1.
4 (b) and (d).

Summary
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1. (C) In the aftermath of the Olympics there will be no
great changes to China's traditional foreign policy emphasis
on consensus and non-intervention, Chinese foreign policy
experts stressed in recent meetings with PolOffs.
Nonetheless, the coming months may be rocky because China and
foreign nations have been postponing action on difficult
issues until after conclusion of the Olympics. China
specifically fears that the United States plans to announce a
major U.S. weapons sale to Taiwan. Experts differ on whether
the Olympics have led to greater Chinese openness. However,
they agree that the Chinese Government, now expecting more
respect and with no need to "create a good atmosphere" for
the Games, may be marginally less flexible and more assertive
on international issues. Some experts worried that the
success of the Games may lead to unrealistic Chinese public
expectatons of the ChineseGovernment's influence over
international issues and that, similarly, Westrn nations may
expect too much from China on global issues like climate
change. Contacts were unanimous that President Bush's
unwavering commitment to attend the Olympics was a great
boost to U.S.-China relations. End Summary.

Continuity
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2. (C) The August 24 Olympics closing ceremony capped a
seven-year national effort to make the Games a success. The
implications of the Olympics for China's position in the
world and China's foreign policy may only become evident in
longer hindsight, but the quick verdict of several Beijing
scholars is that Chinese foreign policy and self-perception
of China's global role will remain largely unchanged in the
short and medium term. Professor Su Hao of China Foreign
Affairs University (CFAU) told POLOFF August 26 that China
"will not change the direction of its foreign policy because
of the Games" and will continue to stress consensus and
non-intervention. Professor Niu Xinchun of the Ministry of
State Security-affiliated Chinese Institutes of Contemporary
International Relations (CICIR) concurred August 25, noting
that China's pragmatic policy stance is driven by "hard
interests rather than feelings about the Games."

Rocky Period Ahead?
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3. (C) Though our foreign policy observer contacts generally
regarded the Olympics as a great success that boosted China's
international prestige, they warned that the immediate
post-Olympics period could be rocky. CICIR's Niu said that
the Chinese Foreign Ministry has been postponing or delaying
difficult issues until after the conclusion of the Olympics.
(Note: When asked, MFA officials have in recent months often
denied any special efforts to avoid unpleasant issues during
the run-up to the Olympics. However, MFA officials have on
several occasions made clear that the Chinese Government did
not want issues to "spoil the atmosphere" of the Olympics.
For example, MFA contacts loudly bemoaned in private the
timing of Russia's military action in Georgia and on multiple
occasions warned against action on arms sales to Taiwan, in
part to avoid threatening the "joyous" atmosphere surrounding
the Games.) Similarly, Niu said, foreign nations have been
postponing "bad news" until after the Olympics. These
difficult issues now might vex the immediate post-Olympics
period. Su and Niu both specifically alluded to China's
ongoing anxiety over the possibility of a major U.S. weapons
sale to Taiwan in the aftermath of the Olympics.

A Boost for Openness?
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4. (C) Several observers said the Olympics would be a boost
for China's openness. Senior U.S. watcher at the Chinese
Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) Tao Wenzhao told POLOFF
August 25 that the experience of the Olympics made Chinese
citizens "less nationalistic and more global," which Tao
characterized as a "maturing of the Chinese character."
Professor Su of CFAU agreed, saying that the experience of
holding the Games "improved the Chinese mindset" and
"internationalized the public's outlook." Su said the
Government's decision to restrict visas during the period of
the Olympics, while perhaps understandable from a security
viewpoint, sparked an internal government debate. Many
officials argued that it would be better to let as many
foreigners as possible come and see China for themselves.
The poorer-than-expected hotel and entertainment business
during the Games reinforced this sentiment.

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5. (C) Not all contacts were so sanguine about the Olympics
having promoted openness in China, however. For example,
Professor Dong Lisheng (protect) of CASS' Institute of
European Studies on August 14 told POLOFF that restrictions
on the Chinese media and on activists increased considerably
in the run-up to and during the Games, and he predicted this
trend will continue in the near term. The "stunning success"
of the Games -- and the Chinese people's "nationalistic"
support for them, which was fueled in part by the backlash
against foreign criticism over Tibet during the global
Olympic torch run -- are likely only to reinforce the Party's
current policy line of continued economic reform coupled with
political control, Dong asserted.

Possibly a Harder Edge
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6. (C) Several observers predicted that although the general
direction of Chinese policy will remain unchanged, China may
now be marginally less flexible and more assertive on
international issues. CFAU's Su said that the success of the
Games will lead China to expect the international community
to "give greater respect and weight to China's opinions."
CICIR's Niu agreed and predicted that the MFA, without the
need to create a propitious environment for the Olympics,
will be less willing to make concessions on or devote special
efforts to international problems (e.g., Darfur). Su did not
agree that in the post-Olympics period China will necessarily
be less engaged on problems like Darfur. "With the Olympics
over, the Chinese Government will have more time and
resources to devote to international issues," he said, and
this period is also an "opportunity for creative cooperation."

Danger of "Over-Confidence"
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7. (C) CICIR's Niu said the most acute concern of many
Chinese foreign policy experts is that the success of the
Games will create Chinese "over-confidence." The danger of
this "over-confidence" cuts two ways, Niu said. On the one
hand, the Chinese public may develop unrealistic expectations
regarding China's influence and power on international
issues. In reality, Niu said, China remains a relatively
poor nation with a limited military and diplomatic capability
relative to the developed world. Similarly, the success of
the Games could lead to unrealistic expectations among
Western countries about China's ability to contribute to the
solution of global problems like climate change. Again,
China as a relatively undeveloped country must concentrate on
its own development. Su went further, saying that the great
success of the Games could lead to the revival of Western
anxiety over a supposed "China Threat."

U.S. Comes Out Ahead
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8. (C) All of our contacts agreed that the Olympics proved to
be a great benefit to U.S.-China ties. CASS U.S. expert Tao
said that the Chinese people were grateful to President Bush
for his unwavering commitment to attending the Games. U.S.
statements on human rights and other sensitive issues were
understandable and caused no rancor, he added. Huang Shan
(protect),Deputy International Editor at the independent
magazine Caijing, separately agreed, telling POLOFF on August
21 that President Bush's visit was "highly successful" and
that Chinese people give the President a "great deal of
credit" for having calibrated U.S. policy on China "just
right." Even though President Bush spoke frankly about human
rights and other sensitive issues both before and during his
trip to China, he did not use such issues as an "excuse" to
"disgrace" the PRC leadership, nor has the President allied
himself with "hardliners" against China. This is the "smart"
way to "press" Chinese leaders on these issues. The result,
Huang concluded, is a strengthening of the bilateral
relationship and continued openness of China's market to U.S.
goods. Huang even asserted that President Bush's "correct"
stance is one factor behind China's continuing on the path of
reform and opening. CFAU's Su contrasted China's warm
feeling toward the United States with Sino-European
relations, which still "required some mending." European
protests during the torch run and threats not to attend the
opening ceremony created enduring bad feeling, he said.
RANDT