THAI PM IN CHINA: CONTINUITY NOT SUBSTANCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 002665

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/08/2028
TAGS: PREL PGOV ETRD TH CH
SUBJECT: THAI PM IN CHINA: CONTINUITY NOT SUBSTANCE

Classified By: Acting Political Minister Counselor Ben Moeling. Reason
s 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Thai Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej stressed the
continuity of warm Chinese-Thai relations in his first visit
as PM to China. Samak made the de rigueur expressions of
support for a one China policy, Chinese sovereignty over
Tibet and a successful, "non-politicized" Olympics, achieving
China's political objectives. Samak also discussed
educational exchange and economic issues during his trip,
which included a stop in fruit-hungry Guangdong province.
End Summary.


2. (C) Thai Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej visited Beijing
and Guangzhou June 30-July 3. Samak had postponed his trip,
originally scheduled for May 15-18, after the May 12 Sichuan
earthquake. In Beijing, Samak met Beijing Organizing
Committee for the Games of the XXIX Olympiad (BOCOG) Chief
Liu Qi (whose relationship with Samak dates back to 2000-2002
when Liu was Mayor of Beijing and Samak Governor of Bangkok),
Defense Minister Liang Guanglie (Samak also holds the Defense
Minister's portfolio),Premier Wen Jiabao and President Hu
Jintao. In Guangzhou, Samak met Guangdong Governor Huang
Huahua and inspected Thai fruit being sold at the Jiangnan
market. Thai Embassy Political Officer Jiraporn
Jriranantakji said July 8 that China was the first visit
outside of ASEAN for the new Thai Prime Minister.

Courtesy Visit
--------------


3. (C) MFA Asia Department Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines,
Malaysia, Brunei, East Timor, and Singapore Division Deputy
Director Yang Yang said July 7 that Samak's trip to China was
a "courtesy visit" with "little substance." Chinese Academy
of Social Sciences (CASS) Southeast Asia scholar Jia Duqiang
agreed that the trip "resulted in nothing concrete." Thai
Embassy Political Officer Jiraporn highlighted the
accomplishments of the trip, such as they were. She said
that Samak had discussed the second year of implementation of
the August 2007 10-year strategic framework. In addition to
discussing economic issues, Samak pushed for more educational
exchange and sought specific assistance in curriculum
development aimed at Thai students studying Chinese.
Jiraporn conceded, however, that there were few concrete
deliverables during the visit.

De Rigueur Statements
--------------


4. (C) Despite Yang's claim that the visit had little
"substance," she said China had achieved its three main
political goals when Samak reiterated support for a one China
policy, support for China's sovereignty over Tibet and
support for a successful, "non-politicized" Olympic games.
Yang also noted that Samak had expressed support for the
Sichuan earthquake victims and announced that Thailand had
donated over USD 1 million to relief efforts, another de
rigueur gesture for visiting senior officials. Yang and
Jiraporn both said no "sensitive issues" (e.g. Burma or the
South China Sea) were discussed during the visit.

Continuity with China's Best Friend in ASEAN
--------------


5. (C) Yang and Jiraporn said separately that Samak had
stressed to Chinese leaders that Thailand's friendly policy
toward China would continue under his government. Yang said
that China observes political change in Thailand without
concern because Thai governments of all political stripes
pursue friendly relations with China, "due to Thailand's
national interests." Yang said Thailand is one of China's
best friends in ASEAN, a title that Jiraporn also claimed
after dropping the "one of." Not only are
government-to-government ties excellent, but people-to-people
relations are warm and economic relations burgeoning. CASS
Thai foreign policy researcher Zhou Fangyan said the visit
had been a "great success" in maintaining traditionally close
Chinese-Thai relations.

Economic and Business Issues
--------------


6. (C) Samak witnessed the signing of a steel investment
agreement in Beijing and a commercial fruit export contract
in Guangzhou (Guangdong province, according to Jiraporn,
accounts for 80 percent of China's imports of Thai fruit).
Jiraporn said the investment agreement was "exploratory"
rather than binding and the fruit contract was "small." Yang

BEIJING 00002665 002 OF 002


noted that Thailand in 2007 enjoyed a trade surplus with
China. Jiraporn said China and Thailand had in 2007 exceeded
their agreed 2010 target on two-way investment of USD 6.5
billion, but needed to work a little to reach the 2010 target
of USD 50 billion in two-way trade (USD 31 billion in 2007).
Jiraporn said Thailand would like to change the structure of
its trade with China, despite the current positive trade
balance. Raw materials and agricultural goods dominate Thai
exports while high-value-added industrial goods are imported
from China. Jiraporn said reforming Thailand's economy is
the best solution to this problem, but Thailand sees heavier
Chinese investment as another remedy. During his stay Samak
also encouraged greater Chinese participation in the Greater
Mekong Subregion, specifically Chinese investment in
transportation infrastructure.

Thai Internal Politics
--------------


7. (C) Yang, who stressed the continuity of Chinese-Thai
relations interests, was careful to take a detached view of
Thailand's internal development. Jiraporn similarly stated
that Thailand's political development plays no role in the
bilateral relationship. CASS researcher Zhou said the only
domestic political angle to the trip was the enhanced
prestige it would give Samak at home. CASS academic Jia
agreed that political change in Thailand plays little role in
bilateral ties, but said Chinese academics watch political
events in Thailand with great interest. Jia said that he
disagrees with Chinese academics who say that events in
Thailand (and other turbulent democracies) show the failings
of the Western political model. Rather, he said, Thailand's
"overall success" with democracy is one model for Asia. He
cited Indonesia as another example of "overall success" with
democracy, but carefully refrained from explicit comparisons
with China.

Arms Deal?
--------------


8. (C) After PolOff's query about rumors of an arms deal
being concluded during the visit, Jiraporn said that only
military officials attended PM Samak's meeting with Defense
Minister Liang. Jiraporn quietly observed that the Thai and
Chinese military enjoy good cooperation in many areas.
RANDT