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08BEIJING2649 2008-07-07 11:10:00 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Beijing
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1. (C) During July 1-2 talks between the Chinese Government
and representatives of the Dalai Lama, Chinese official
statements slightly modified earlier Chinese demands, saying
the Dalai Lama should "not support" rather than "stop"
independence, violence, actions of the Tibetan Youth
Congress, and disruptions of the Olympics. Although the two
sides agreed to renew the dialogue in October, the Chinese
side conditioned further talks on the Dalai Lama's meeting
China's "simple and rational requirements." Lodi Gyari
publicly bemoaned China's lack of "sincere commitment" and
suggested that the Chinese leadership is "stalling for time."
Generally knowledgeable Embassy contacts without direct
knowledge of the results of the talks told PolOff that
China's basic strategy seems to be to wait for the Dalai Lama
to die. These observers said all signs show the dialogue is
"not serious" and is held primarily to "create a good
international image." End Summary.

"Four Not Supports" Replace "Three Stops"


2. (SBU) Chinese United Front Work Department (UFWD)
officials met July 1-2 in Beijing with the Dalai Lama's
personal representatives Lodi Gyari and Kelsang Gyaltsen.
This was the second such meeting since the unrest in Tibetan
areas in mid-March and the eighth round of talks since 2002.
A UFWD spokesman told reporters July 6 that the dialogue was
"frank and open" and that the Government had listened
"patiently and attentively." He acknowledged, however, that
"very large differences" remain between the two sides. The
spokesman emphasized the Chinese Government's "goodwill" in
asking the Dalai Lama "not to support" independence, violence
or disruption of the Olympics rather than demanding that he
"stop" doing so, as in previous statements. Du Qinglin, Vice
Chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative
Congress (CPPCC) and the Head of UFWD, said the Dalai Lama
should not support 1) activities to disturb the Beijing
Olympics, 2) plots to fan violent criminal activity, 3)
violent terrorist activities of the Tibetan Youth Congress
and 4) any activity designed to seek Tibet Independence and
split China. The spokesman explained that the "four not
supports" replace the "three stops;" i.e., that the Dalai
Lama stop activities aimed at splitting China, inciting
violence and sabotaging the Beijing Olympics. The "four not
supports" are more "practical and easy" for the Dalai Lama to
accept, he said.

Preconditions for Next Round of Dialogue


3. (SBU) Lodi Gyari and Kelsang Gyaltsen issued a public
statement July 5 saying the two sides agreed to resume talks
in October, but expressed frustration that the Chinese side
rejected a proposal for a joint statement of commitment to
the dialogue process. The UFWD spokesman said that door is
open for dialogue as long as the Dalai Lama's "actions meet
his words" and he carries out the "four not supports." If
the Dalai Lama fails to meet such "simple and rational
requirements," however, it will be impossible to have the
necessary atmosphere and conditions for the next round of
contacts, the UFWD spokesman said.

Waiting for the Dalai Lama to Die


4. (C) Lodi Gyari told Western reporters July 5 that "there
is a growing perception" that the Chinese Government is just
engaging in dialogue to "stall for time." He said he told
the Chinese representatives that in the absence of a "serious
and sincere commitment," there is no purpose in continuing
the dialogue. In the Chinese version of Du Qinglin's public
comments on the "four not supports," Du referred to the Dalai
Lama's "few remaining years." Wang Wen, (protect) editor of
the International Forum Page of the People's Daily-owned
Global Times told Poloff on July 1 that China's strategy is
to "wait until the Dalai Lama dies." In the meantime, he
said, "China can talk and talk, for 15 to 20 years if
necessary," and blame lack of progress on the Dalai Lama.

BEIJING 00002649 002 OF 002

5. (C) Zhang Xiaojun (protect) Associate Dean of Renmin
University's School of International Studies, told PolOff on
July 2 that the negotiations between the Chinese Government
and the Dalai Lama's representatives are "not serious." He
explained that there is no common ground between the two
sides and that they are "too far apart" to make real
progress. He noted that the dialogue was held in a shabby
room in a "third rate" hotel in Beijing, which purposely
showed disrespect to the Dalai Lama. The negotiations are
"for show," in an effort create a good international image,
Zhang said. Wang Wen also said that the dialogue is designed
to placate the international community rather than to seek a
real solution. Wang opined that "there is no way" China
would allow the Dalai Lama to return to Tibet, because that
would surely cause unrest. "China has enough internal
problems, and does not need to create another one," Wang said.