EARTHQUAKE: PARTY BENEFITS, ANGER IN QUAKE ZONE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 002437 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2028 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PROP SOCI CH SUBJECT: EARTHQUAKE: PARTY BENEFITS, ANGER IN QUAKE ZONE SERIOUS BUT MANAGEABLE REF: A. BEIJING 335 ¶B. BEIJING 390 Classified By: Acting Political Minister Counselor Ben Moeling. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The Chinese public is giving high marks to the Central Government, and especially to Premier Wen Jiabao, for its quick response to the May 12 Sichuan earthquake, and our contacts believe the Party and Central Government have received a boost in legitimacy as a result. Although managing the wrath of parents who lost their children due to shoddy school construction presents a challenge for the leadership, our interlocutors believe demonstrations and unrest will remain geographically confined to the quake zone. The authorities, our contacts say, will attempt to control fallout from the parents' anger with a combination of media controls, compensation for victims, official action against critics and the scapegoating of some local officials. Those we spoke with are divided over the long-term political significance of this disaster. Some believe the Sichuan earthquake is a turning point in government transparency. Others argue that the degree of future openness will continue to depend on the situation. One historian believes the quake may have the opposite effect of what liberal reformers hope for because, for many in China, the disaster highlights the need for strong centralization of power under the Communist Party. End Summary. Big Boost to Party/Government Legitimacy -------------- ¶2. (C) Tsinghua University historian Qin Hui (protect) told PolOff June 17 that the Communist Party has experienced a large boost in legitimacy as a result of its handling of the Sichuan earthquake. Many of our interlocutors believe the quick Central Government response, including the decision by Premier Wen Jiabao to go to the disaster area within hours of the quake, reflect the lessons learned from the January/February snowstorm disaster, when many Chinese, particularly bloggers, criticized the Party leaders for their sluggish response (reftels). Ren Qian (protect), Deputy Director of the State Administration of Radio Television and Film, told PolOff May 14, just two days after the earthquake, that the snowstorm experience was critical to the leadership's handling of the earthquake. Hu En (protect),an executive at China Central Television, however, felt the "exceptionally" fast response to the earthquake reflected not necessarily the snowstorm, but rather a more general trend toward greater responsiveness going back to the 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) crisis. Li Dun, a prominent AIDS legal activist who recently retired from Tsinghua University's Center for the Study of Contemporary China, likewise told PolOff June 13 that the Sichuan quake had allowed the government to reestablish its crisis management credentials. Furthermore, Li said, in the aftermath of the quake, President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen displayed genuine concern for the safety and welfare of ordinary people. While this might be taken for granted in Western countries, Li observed, in China, demonstrating that the leadership values individual lives is fairly new behavior and wins points with the Chinese public. Anger in Quake Zone Serious But Manageable -------------- ¶3. (C) Freelance journalist Chen Jieren (protect),who is the nephew of Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) member He Guoqiang, wrote an analysis two days after the disaster that noted that school buildings in the quake zone had collapsed while government office buildings had generally remained standing. (Comment: We do not know the audience for Chen's piece, which he emailed to us. It is far too sensitive to be published inside China. Chen claims he frequently writes internal "neibu" articles for high-level leaders. End Comment.) Chen also wrote that small rural towns, where poverty leads to poorer building quality, suffered more damage than larger cities. Chen warned that by exposing disparities between government officials and ordinary people, and between rural and urban areas, the earthquake had badly BEIJING 00002437 002 OF 003 damaged the image of the Communist Party and increased public dissatisfaction. ¶4. (C) While other contacts acknowledge widespread dissatisfaction within the disaster area, most said quake-related unrest does not represent a major challenge to the Party. China's propaganda apparatus is working to minimize public anger over the high number of student deaths, according to Zhang Shensi (protect),a senior editor at the Legal Daily. Zhang told PolOff that, following a period of very little media control immediately after the quake, propaganda authorities have reasserted their authority by limiting media reporting of school construction issues (see septel). Zhang predicted that the Central Government will use monetary compensation to parents to try to limit their fury. Mao Yushi (protect),the founder of the Unirule Institue of Economics, an independent think tank, said central authorities will continue to limit media reporting of the school collapse fallout while at the same time publicly punishing a small number of local officials as scapegoats. (Note: The Xinhua News Agency announced June 9 that 15 officials in Sichuan Province had been fired for poor performance during the quake relief effort while 50 officials had been promoted as a result of their outstanding service.) The Central Government's announcement June 8 that officials responsible for poor construction will face criminal penalties and that building codes for schools will be improved is all part of the damage control effort, Mao said. The government, Mao observed, cannot allow protest to grow but also cannot afford to appear callous toward parents who have lost their children. ¶5. (C) Qin Hui, of Tsinghua University, noted that so much money has been raised for earthquake relief (according to Xinhua, USD 6.7 billion in private donations plus another USD 7.8 billion allocated by the Chinese Government) that expectations of government assistance among survivors are unrealistically high. The anger and bitterness caused by the school collapses will increase if quake victims perceive that relief money is ending up in the pockets of corrupt officials, Qin said. Qin predicted that any quake-related unrest will remain isolated to the communities within the disaster zone. From a national perspective, he observed, the Chinese public has a very positive opinion of the government's performance and this is a net plus for stability. (Note: Authorities are detaining some of the more outspoken critics. The Hong Kong-based Information Center for Human Rights reports that police jailed Zeng Hongling in Chengdu June 9 after Zeng posted articles on the Internet about poor school construction.) Situational Transparency -------------- ¶6. (C) Chinese we spoke with had varied opinions about the lasting political ramifications of this disaster. Zhang Shensi, of the Legal Daily, called the quake a "breakthrough" in government transparency and openness. The May 12 earthquake, she said, is the first disaster in China to be covered so freely and sets a new precedent for how the government handles major incidents. Wang Lin (protect),Editor-in-Chief of the Beijing-based newspaper Fazhi Wanbao, likewise felt that the positive role played by media and civil society in the crisis shows how China is gradually becoming a more open society. ¶7. (C) Other contacts, however, were skeptical that the Sichuan quake marks a real change in the Party's approach to governance. Li Dun said every government decision in China is highly situational and Party authorities wil continue to restrict information flows when t suits the Party's inerests. Although Chinas rulers granted the media and NGOs a great dea of latitude during the rescue phase, Li noted, this freedom is now being rolled back. During the rebuilding phase, Li commented, complex local interests will come into play as the government sets priorities for reconstruction and awards contracts. The Party, Li said, will not want the messy details reported with the same level of transparency that characterized the immediate relief efforts. Huang Shan (protect),Deputy Editor of Caijing magazine, said he does not believe the earthquake really represented a turning point and, like Li Dun, predicted that future openness will vary depending on BEIJING 00002437 003 OF 003 the situation. "Quake Reinforces Centralization of Power" -------------- ¶8. (C) Qin Hui also expressed doubt that the quake will usher in a new era of transparency in China. In fact, Qin said the legacy of the Sichuan quake may be the exact opposite of what liberal reformers wish. People on both sides of the political spectrum, Qin explained, typically project their own hopes onto major events. Pro-reform liberals in China are praising the media openness, close cooperation with foreigners and the mobilization of civil society that followed the earthquake. "Stalinists" in China, however, view the earthquake as an affirmation of the need for a strong centralization of power at the top of the Communist Party. Only a centralized state, according to this view, can mobilize resources on the scale needed to cope with such emergencies. Qin argued that the 2003 SARS epidemic also created unfulfilled expectations among liberals that China was moving toward greater transparency. Qin, however, said that, for many in China, the lesson of SARS and the Sichuan quake is that China needs more, not less, centralized government control. Mao Yushi, of the Unirule Institute, said that while he does feel the regime is gradually moving towards more transparency, the quake has served to bolster the idea of a strong Central Government and military. "The Communist Party is good at disasters," Mao said, adding that China's Leninist political system is pre-disposed toward mass mobilization and tends to handle disaster response as a kind of warfare. Mao likened the quake to the massive floods of 1998 in that both disasters offered a chance to burnish the image of the Party and the PLA. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) The academics quoted above, especially Qin Hui and Mao Yushi, are very outspoken and do not hesitate to criticize China's rulers. We find the near universal praise among our contacts for the government's performance in dealing with this tragedy to be notable, and unusual. PICCUTA