PRC/RUSSIA: MEDVEDEV VISIT CAST AS REAFFIRMATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 002303 SIPDIS PACOM FOR FPA AMB CHRISTY E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/12/2028 TAGS: PREL ETRD ENRG MASS KOLY RS CH SUBJECT: PRC/RUSSIA: MEDVEDEV VISIT CAST AS REAFFIRMATION OF STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP; CHALLENGES REMAIN REF: MOSCOW 1599 Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The May 23-24 visit of Russian President Medvedev to Beijing aimed to reaffirm the Sino-Russian "strategic partnership," to emphasize the two countries' shared desire for a more multi-polar world, and to demonstrate their common approach to international hot-spot issues, said MFA and Russian Embassy sources. Medvedev's visit also sought to show that leadership transitions on both sides will not affect bilateral relations. Chinese officials praised Russian assistance to the victims of the May 12 Sichuan earthquake. Both sides acknowledged economic "challenges," and China showed a new willingness to make progress on potentially divisive issues, such as a Sino-Russian agreement on long-term energy cooperation. However, a concrete way forward on major economic problems failed to emerge, and the visit's deliverables were modest. Beijing pressed for broad condemnation of missile defense systems in the Joint Declaration, but the Russian side agreed only to more specific language. The MFA said stalled military technical consultations will recommence within the year, but Russian EmbOffs were more circumspect. The two sides also discussed development policy in the Russian Far East, cultural exchange, transnational environmental issues and Russian support for the Beijing Olympic Games. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) MFA Department of European and Central Asian Affairs Deputy Director General Zhang Hanhui briefed POLOFF June 2 on the outcome of the Medvedev visit. Russian Embassy Political Counselor Anton Revutskiy briefed the Deputy Political Minister Counselor on June 4. While in Beijing, Medvedev met with President Hu Jintao, Vice President Xi Jinping, National People's Congress Standing Committee Chairman Wu Bangguo, and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) Chairman Jia Qinglin, although Revutskiy described the latter two as "protocol meetings." Zhang said Premier Wen Jiabao did not meet with President Medvedev only because Wen was in Sichuan overseeing earthquake recovery efforts. Medvedev delivered an address at Peking University. Revutskiy said Medvedev was accompanied by Foreign Minister Lavrov, Deputy Prime Minister Zhukov, the Minister for Industry and Trade, the Minister for Energy, heads of other agencies and regional leaders from Tomsk. "Mutual Trust" to Uphold the Strategic Partnership -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Chinese officials described Medvedev's visit as primarily a demonstration that the "strategic partnership" the two sides have developed over the last decade will continue under Medvedev. Zhang said the visit showed that close Sino-Russian ties will endure regardless of leadership transition on either side. Zhang said the visit "boosted mutual political trust" but acknowledged that the two sides grappled with contentious bilateral issues. He said the two sides agreed to "prioritize" the coordination of their respective foreign policies under a strategic partnership framework. Russian Embassy Political Counselor Revutskiy echoed Zhang's views, calling the visit a "confirmation of the continued political course." Revutskiy said that the agreements that came out of the visit constitute an "action plan" to further develop the strategic partnership. Zhang said President Medvedev reaffirmed his support "in various and tangible ways" for Beijing's approach to potential flashpoints like Taiwan, Xinjiang and Falungong. Joint Declaration, Missile Defense -------------- ¶4. (C) The Joint Declaration signed during the visit concerned international issues and avoided bilateral issues that might reflect differences between the two sides (see reftel for text of the document). Unlike similar declarations in 1997 and 2005, the recent declaration included an expression of common opposition to "destabilizing" missile defense systems. Zhang said that the Joint Declaration demonstrates Sino-Russian "strategic cooperation" in dealing with international issues. He noted that the Joint Declaration echoed previous Chinese official BEIJING 00002303 002 OF 003 statements on the need for a more multi-polar global system and "democratization of international relations," including increased emphasis on the UN and the use of negotiation and discussion to solve international problems. Revutskiy said that the primary purpose of the Joint Declaration was the "rejection of unilateral action," support for a strong UN role and respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity. He underscored that the two sides reaffirmed the principle of the respect for human rights, but cautioned that "every country has the right to defend itself based on its own conditions." Chinese Wanted General Opposition to Missile Defense -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) According to Revutskiy, in the negotiations over the missile defense statement in the Joint Declaration, the Chinese pushed for a statement opposing "any form" of missile defense. It was China, he stressed, that wanted to avoid listing specific missile defense deployments. He said Russia preferred a statement opposing missile defense "in certain areas" that would affect specific Russian and Chinese security interests. The resulting compromise in the final document expressed concern about the deployment of missile defense systems "in some regions of the world or the initiation of relevant cooperation." He said that the first Chinese draft included a condemnation of "hegemony," but that the Russian side toned down such rhetoric. Economic Issues Discussed with Few Real Results -------------- -- ¶6. (C) Zhang played up the visit's economic accomplishments, including the establishment of a mechanism to exchange views on energy cooperation and expressions of mutual interest in coordination on technology development and environmental protection, but he acknowledged that key items, such as a Sino-Russian agreement on long-term energy cooperation, remain under negotiation. On hydrocarbons cooperation, Zhang said only that the issue is "in many ways proceeding in a smooth and comprehensive way." Zhang said not only are Chinese companies interested in investing in Russia, but Russian firms are also seeking inroads into China's refining industry. Revutskiy said the two sides concluded an "action plan" to promote tourism, a commercial agreement to continue an on-going joint uranium enrichment project, an agreement to coordinate on the development of aviation technology and an MOU between Russian state-owned banks and the Construction Bank of China. Revutskiy said that current efforts are laudable but that Russia remains unsatisfied with the economic status quo. He said that China is trying to bring political leadership to the issue, but that any real gains will take time. In any case, he said, there may be limits to what government initiatives can accomplish in the face of structural imbalances. Revutskiy said Beijing understands the need to be seen as taking action on trade issues. For example, China did not object to higher Russian export tariffs on raw timber. Rather, China has focused on promoting Chinese investment in the processed wood industry in Russia. Expectations Too High? -------------- ¶7. (C) The modest economic results of the visit may not have fulfilled high expectations before the visit. At a May 20 press briefing, Assistant Foreign Minister Li Hui predicted that during the visit the two sides would sign "a number of bilateral cooperation documents." Russian Ambassador to China Sergey Razov declared in advance of the visit that the visit would demonstrate that the bilateral relationship is based on "equality" and a "full consideration of mutual interests." In the end, state-run Chinese media reported without fanfare that trade deals had been struck, but Zhang would only say that the two sides "exchanged views" on trade issues, and that they would "work harder for a solid foundation" to the bilateral economic relationship. Earthquake Diplomacy -------------- ¶8. (C) During the visit, Chinese media highlighted Russian assistance to the victims of the Sichuan earthquake, BEIJING 00002303 003 OF 003 particularly Russia's bringing a group of injured children to Russia for treatment, a gesture that recalled China's medical care of children from the Beslan hostage crisis. Zhang said that Russia provided 20 shipments of supplies to the affected areas and that Russia was one of a handful of countries authorized to send personnel as well as supplies to assist in the recovery effort. Military Talks Remain on Hold -------------- ¶9. (C) Technical military talks within the framework of the Sino-Russian Joint Military Technical Cooperative Sub-committee have been stalled since 2006, but Zhang said the two sides would meet before the end of the year. Zhang said Sino-Russian dialogue on military issues is "not aimed at any third country." Revutskiy said that Russian arms sales to China have dropped off and that this is reflective of the structural problems in the bilateral trade relationship. Reiterating Russia's ongoing dissatisfaction with the low comparative value of its exports to China, Revutskiy said that it is still too early to tell whether Chinese efforts to improve the structure of trade, including increased military purchases from Russia, will bear fruit. He indicated that any improvement in the economic relationship will factor into Russia's willingness to discuss military affairs. Revutskiy said there is no schedule for a future round of the Sub-committee and no "fixed frequency" for meetings. He said there is now little urgency for another round because there are "no major projects in the pipeline." Russian Far East, Coordinating Local Policy -------------- ¶10. (C) In part to outflank potential friction over Chinese migration in the Russian Far East, Chinese officials emphasized efforts made during the visit to improve communication between local authorities on either side of the border. Zhang said the two sides agreed to improve policy coordination at the national and local levels. He said China is careful to ensure that development policies in China's northeast do not create conflict with Russia. Revutskiy said "forms of migration" into the Russian Far East were discussed. Russia called for the "civilized and orderly" movement of people across the border and continues to be concerned by visa fraud and overstays by Chinese in Russia. ¶11. (C) Zhang said the two sides signed an MOU between the Yantai and Tomsk regions to provide for Chinese investment in Russia's wood-processing industry. The two sides also agreed on the management of cross-border water resources and plan to raise local environmental issues at the Prime Minister level in future talks. He claimed the two sides reached agreement to "take up measures" on pollution control in shared bodies of water, and pointed to Chinese efforts to clean up the Songhua River. Zhang claimed that the two sides also discussed cross-border infrastructure development. Other Issues Discussed -------------- ¶12. (C) President Hu raised the issue of the Trans-Siberian pipeline connection to China that has been stalled, which Revutskiy claimed is currently under renegotiation by the Russian and Chinese entities involved. President Hu offered to task Vice Premier Wang Qishan to work with the Russian Deputy Prime Minister on the issue to try to bring added political gravity to the stalled project. Revutskiy stressed that Russia remains very interested in completing the project, and reported that contacts close to the project say it will be completed by the end of 2009. ¶13. (C) Revutskiy said the two sides reiterated the need to build on the goodwill generated by the "Year of Russia in China" and the "Year of China in Russia" with a "Year of the Russian Language in China" and "Year of the Chinese Language in Russia" in 2009-10. The MFA's Zhang reported that Medvedev reiterated support for the Beijing Olympic Games and confirmed that he will attend. PICCUTA