BEIJING SCHOLARS SAY PRC SEES TAIWAN'S MA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 002219

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2033
TAGS: PREL PARM CH TW
SUBJECT: BEIJING SCHOLARS SAY PRC SEES TAIWAN'S MA
PRESIDENCY AS AN IMPORTANT OPPORTUNITY

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson. Reasons 1.
4 (b) and (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) A senior PRC American affairs expert said that despite
some initial misgivings, the PRC Government is convinced that
Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou's tenure provides an important
opportunity to improve cross-Strait relations. He noted that
Ma's campaign rhetoric regarding Tibet, his "insult" of
Premier Wen Jiabao, and the appointment of pro-independence
Lai Shin-yuan to head the Mainland Affairs Council made PRC
Taiwan watchers wary. Ma's carefully worded inauguration
address and KMT Chair Wu Poh-hsiung's successful late-May
visit to the Mainland, however, assuaged some PRC concerns.
The PRC is still concerned about the U.S. role in the Taiwan
issue, worried that Washington may give Ma Ying-jeou a
high-level reception in the United States or approve
"dramatic" new arms sales. The scholar did not dismiss the
idea that the PRC may pull back missiles deployed near
Taiwan, and other scholars opined that the issue was a
discussed during Wu's visit. End Summary.

Scholar Says PRC Overcoming Suspicion of Ma
--------------


2. (C) Gu Guoliang, Deputy Director of the Chinese Academy of
Social Sciences' Institute of American Studies, told
PolMinCouns on June 5 that the Chinese Government is
increasingly convinced Ma Ying-jeou's presidency presents an
important opportunity to improve cross-Strait relations.
During the campaign and after Ma's March 22 electoral
victory, Chinese observers remained unconvinced. Three
incidents in fact, according to Gu, made Mainland Taiwan
watchers more wary about the prospects for improved
cross-Strait relations under a Ma presidency: Ma's "insult"
to Premier Wen Jiabao, Ma's talk of a possible Olympic
boycott in the wake of the Tibet crackdown, and the
appointment of pro-independence Lai Shin-yuan as head of
Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council. (Note: The "insult"
refers to comments Ma made on March 18 in response to Wen's
NPC press conference remarks on Taiwan and Tibet. Ma said
"Wen's remarks are outrageous and unreasonable, arrogant,
dumb and pretentious." Gu did not mention other
pre-inaugural problematic -- from the PRC standpoint -- Ma
moves such as his open invitation for the Dalai Lama to visit
and his announced intention to visit the United States.)


3. (C) Ma's May 20 inaugural speech, however, assuaged many
PRC concerns. It was apparent from the careful wording of
the address, Gu said, that Ma was trying to be sensitive to
Mainland views. Ma's open acceptance of the "1992 Consensus"
on "one China" as the basis for cross-Strait dialogue was a
key element satisfying PRC concerns. Asked whether the
additional phrase "respective interpretations" after "one
China" gives the Mainland heartburn, Gu said the PRC can live
with the Taiwans using the phrase as long as it is not
emphasized and China is not called upon to accept it
explicitly.


4. (C) KMT Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung's late May visit to China
was a success and further solidified the Mainland's sense
that prospects for improved cross-Strait relations are real,
Gu offered. Earlier, in a May 28 meeting with PolMinCouns,
CASS Institute of American Studies Senior Fellow Tao Wenzhao
and Renmin University School of International Studies
Associate Dean Jin Canrong provided their views on KMT
Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung's meeting earlier that day with
President Hu. They noted that media coverage of the Hu-Wu
meeting was extensive, with the media present for the first
20 minutes of the discussion. The two academics judged the
body language and subsequent media coverage as indicative of
PRC readiness to improve cross-Strait relations. Chinese
leaders realize, they said, that the Mainland needs to
provide Ma a policy victory early on so as to reward his
current posture. With that in mind, both agreed, agreement
on cross-Strait charter flights and Mainland tourists to
Taiwan are all but a done deal.

U.S. Role Still Worrisome
--------------


5. (C) Mainland Taiwan observers continue to have concerns
about Ma, Gu said. Ma is perceived as being very close to
the United States. Chinese leaders are worried, for example,

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that the United States will give Ma a high-level reception in
the United States at some point. The Chinese are also
concerned that the United States may approve "dramatic" arms
sales to Taiwan. By "dramatic," Gu explained, he meant sales
of weapons of significantly higher quality or quantity or of
an offensive nature. Gu implied that such developments would
complicate internal Chinese arguments in favor of improving
cross-Strait relations.

Missile Pullback?
--------------


6. (C) Asked to comment on media reports out of Taiwan that
President Hu or other PRC interlocutors of Wu indicated
possible flexibility on missile deployments aimed at Taiwan,
Gu did not offer much insight but did not dismiss the idea.
Zhou Zhihuai, Deputy President of CASS's Institute of Taiwan
Studies told PolOff on June 3 that the issue of missile
deployments was definitely discussed during the Hu-Wu talks
and that the Mainland probably gave Taiwan a positive signal
on the issue. With 16 people in the KMT delegation, someone
must have leaked the story. The fact that Wu and others all
denied the reports suggests that there was an agreement on
both sides to keep it confidential, Zhou assessed. Zhu Feng,
Deputy Director of Peking University's Center for
International and Strategic Studies, told PolOff on June 5
that as the missiles are all mobile, it should be an easy
thing to pull them out of range. It remains to be seen
whether Taiwan would be satisfied with such a move and
authorities there may push for full decommissioning.
PICCUTA