CHINA TRIES TO ADJUST TO NEPAL'S NEW POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 001876 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2028 TAGS: PREL PGOV CH IN NP SUBJECT: CHINA TRIES TO ADJUST TO NEPAL'S NEW POLITICAL LANDSCAPE REF: A. BEIJING 969 ¶B. NEW DELHI 1096 Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR AUBREY CARLSON. REASONS 1.4 (B/D). ¶1. (C) Summary: Local scholars' and officials' assessments of the recent Nepali election's implications for China-Nepal relations reflect Chinese uncertainty about the effect of the rise of the Maoist Party in the Nepal's political mainstream. An MFA official told us frankly that the Chinese Government was greatly surprised by the Maoist victory. Chinese scholars said China's oft-repeated foreign policy principle of non-interference limited previous Chinese official contacts with both the Maoist and Madhesi political parties. MFA and Chinese scholars both dismissed speculation that a Maoist-led government would tilt closer to China. End Summary. "Big surprise" -------------- ¶2. (C) MFA Asia Department India, Nepal, Sri Lanka Division Deputy Director Zhao Lijian called the April 10 Constituent Assembly (CA) election results in Nepal "a big surprise." Zhao indicated uncertainty about the election's implications for Sino-Nepali relations, but said, whatever happens, relations will "continue to develop smoothly." Chinese South Asia scholars likewise expressed shock at the result. Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) scholar Jia Duqiang said the Maoists' strong showing "represents a historic change" in Nepal. China and the Maoists -------------- ¶3. (C) MFA's Zhao said the Chinese Government will now increase formal contacts with the Maoists because of their leading role in a future government. Saying that China had distanced itself from the Maoists prior to the group's entry into the political mainstream in 2006, Zhao emphasized that, to date, the Chinese Government has had only informal contacts with the Maoist Party. Zhao denied information provided to PolOff by a Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee International Department (CCID) official that a delegation led CCID head Wang Jiarui met with Maoist leader Pushpa Dahal ("Prachanda") among other Nepal political party representatives, during a visit to Nepal in late 2007. Zhao said that perhaps the CPC delegation met Prachanda informally at a reception. (According to the CCID, Prachanda told Wang during their 2007 meeting that Maoists were "devoted to dissolve differences and push forward the peace process in a peaceful way and through dialogue.") ¶4. (C) Acknowledging that China's "non-interference" policy inherently limits Chinese Government contacts with opposition groups, CASS Nepal scholar Wang Hongwei commented that the Chinese Government has reacted slowly to the increasing influence of the Maoists. To illustrate his point, Wang said that in the past he himself was "academically isolated" and "encountered difficulties" with Chinese authorities because he did not to adhere to the previous Chinese Government position that the Maoist party was "an anti-Government armed group" that was "misusing the name of Chairman Mao." He said that more recently, however, Chinese officials sought his advice on Nepal. Maoists must join with NC and UML -------------- ¶5. (C) Deputy Director Zhao said that the Maoists must now seek consensus with the Nepali Congress (NC) and Communist Party of Nepal (UML) to form a coalition government. Chinese scholars concurred, noting that the message of the election is that the Nepali people want the Maoists to use peaceful means to better the country. CASS' Jia said Maoist participation in a new government will strengthen political stability in Nepal because of the Maoists' emphasis on addressing the needs of the poorest and most neglected members of Nepali society. CASS' Wang said that the only way Maoists will achieve reform is through cooperation with the other major political parties in Nepal. Madhesi parties gain political power -------------- BEIJING 00001876 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) Further reflecting China's need to adjust to the new political landscape in Nepal, MFA's Zhao said the relatively strong showing of the three political parties in the United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF) makes the UDMF "a force to be reckoned with," and that China needs to establish better ties with the Madhesi parties. CASS' Wang, who previously expressed strong concerns about Madhesi independence aspirations (ref A),tempered his assessment of the Madhesi, saying that the parties may continue in the political mainstream rather than push for outright independence. Tilt toward China "impossible" -------------- ¶7. (C) In contrast to certain Indian commentators' judgments that the Maoists' strong showing reflects China's growing influence in Nepal (ref B),MFA Deputy Director Zhao and Chinese scholars predicted no significant changes in the diplomatic dynamics among China, India and Nepal. A Nepali Embassy contact noted that in fact, in order to address "India's own problems with leftists," the Indian Government has maintained closer contact with the Maoists than the Chinese Government has. CASS' Jia dismissed the notion that China influenced the outcome of the recent election, saying "decision-makers in China have not been paying much attention" to political developments in Nepal. Professor Wang concurred, saying it would be "impossible" for the Maoists, or indeed any Nepali Government, to tilt more toward China, since the Nepali people wish to remain "independent." RANDT