HU FIRMLY IN CHARGE OF TAIWAN POLICY, CONTACTS SAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 001681 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/30/2033 TAGS: PGOV PREL CH TW SUBJECT: HU FIRMLY IN CHARGE OF TAIWAN POLICY, CONTACTS SAY REF: A. 07 BEIJING 6673 ¶B. BEIJING 1069 ¶C. BEIJING 1397 Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson. Reasons 1. 4 (b) and (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Summary: President Hu Jintao's position as the chief Taiwan policymaker has been strengthened as a result of Ma Ying-jeou's victory in the March 22 Taiwan presidential election, according to two Embassy contacts. Hu's decisions to break from former President Jiang Zemin's timeline for reunification and adopt a more moderate, restrained line toward Taiwan in his 17th Communist Party Congress Political Report and in the run-up to the Taiwan elections represented a calculated political risk that paid off with Ma's election. Ma's landslide victory is thus seen as a validation of President Hu's Taiwan decision-making, which cements his authority over Taiwan issues. Other contacts, however, sounded a dissenting note, arguing that Hu lacks the stature of some of his predecessors to make bold moves on Taiwan and noting that China's political system is much more consensus-based than before. End Summary. Hu Made a Good Bet -------------- ¶2. (C) Guo Zhenyuan (protect),a senior scholar at the MFA-affiliated China Institute of International Studies (CIIS),told POLOFF on April 18 that President Hu Jintao "took risks" when he met with Taiwan party leaders in 2005, expressed his faith in the Taiwan people in his "four nevers" speech, broke from Jiang Zemin's timeline for reunification and decided to be "very restrained" in the run-up to the March 22 Taiwan presidential election and referenda vote. If the Taiwan referenda on joining the United Nations had passed and the DPP had stayed in power, Hu would have been vulnerable to strong attacks against his policy. By contrast, having achieved "the best possible result in the elections" (decisive KMT victory, defeat of the referendums), Hu is now "very strong" on Taiwan Policy, Guo argued. ¶3. (C) Yang Liuchang (protect),Director General of the Hong Kong, Macao, and Overseas Affairs Division of the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) said that Hu's policy has been successful because it has focused on peaceful development, which is win-win for people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Hu is "personally taking the lead on Taiwan policy," as demonstrated by his April 12 statements at the Bo'ao Forum and decision to meet there with Taiwan VP-elect Vincent Siew. Hu's Bo'ao statements were "the most detailed and authoritative commentary on the Taiwan election" issued by the Central Government, Yang said. Yang added that it is also significant that Hu asked Siew to pass his regards to Ma Ying-jeou, Wang Jin-ping, and Lien Chan, "indicating his respect and willingness to deal with Taiwan on equal terms." Yang said Hu is serious about achieving a peace agreement but will be patient and, unlike Jiang Zemin, will "not rush" in pushing forward on cross-Strait issues. Hu's Influence over Taiwan Policy "Decisive" -------------- ¶4. (C) Zhou Zhihuai (protect),Vice President of the Chinese Academy of Social Science's (CASS) Institute of Taiwan Studies (ITS) said that the Chinese leadership (and Hu in particular) is "decisive" (juedingxing) on the Taiwan issue. He commented that all leaders want to leave a legacy in their second term in office, noting Jiang Zemin's attempt to establish a timetable for reunification, and said Hu will be no different. Zhou described a period in 2005 when all Mainland Taiwan watchers were convinced that war was inevitable. Hu then made a statement to the effect that there had been recent signs that the independence movement on Taiwan was being contained. Zhou said "only Hu could have made such a statement" during such a tense situation. The statement significantly lowered the temperature on cross-Strait issues. Zhou noted that moderate tone of Hu's 2007 Party Congress speech had a similar effect. Zhou would not speculate on what steps Hu would take, but said that if Hu came up with a new breakthrough proposal or new formula for cross-Strait interactions, people would follow. Dissenting Views -------------- BEIJING 00001681 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) Vice Chairman of the National Society for Taiwan Studies (NSTS) Xu Shiquan (protect) sounded a dissenting note on Hu's command of Taiwan issues in a meeting with POLOFF April 24. Xu said that because of Ma Ying-jeou's experience working as Vice Chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council in the early 1990s and involvement with the establishment of the Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF),Ma is his own advisor on cross-Strait policy. When asked if the same were true of Hu Jintao, Xu said Hu still needs to rely on advisors and experts on the Taiwan issue and noted that Hu is "open to ideas and suggestions." The Bo'ao meeting should not be seen as Hu "taking the lead" on Taiwan policy, Xu argued, claiming that the State Council/Communist Party Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) prepared Hu's statements with input from Taiwan experts at think tanks, including the CASS-ITS, where Xu formerly served as President. ¶6. (C) Several scholars at the CASS Institute of American Studies, including Zhang Liping (protect) and Ni Feng (protect),told POLOFF on April 23 that Hu Jintao "does not have the stature to take bold steps on Taiwan policy," unlike former paramount leader Deng Xiaoping who had "revolutionary credentials" that allowed him to propose the "one country, two systems" formula to end decades of open hostility. These scholars argued that, even though Hu's Taiwan policy has been successful to date, the issue remains "very sensitive" and China's political structure is much more consensus-based than it was in the late 1970s when Deng was in charge. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) The March 22 Taiwan election results appear to have boosted Hu Jintao's position on Taiwan and, in the eyes of many observers, to have validated his more "moderate" approach to cross-Strait relations compared to his predecessor Jiang Zemin. Although dissenting, more hard-line views on Taiwan certainly exist, the view of most Mainland's Taiwan watchers with whom we've been in contact is that Hu Jintao has the lead on PRC Taiwan policy. At the same time, the "dissenting views" above indicating that others had input into President Hu's remarks at Bo'ao forum and that Hu lacks Deng's power and stature are almost certainly true and track with the widely held view that policymaking at the top of China's political structure is increasingly consensus-driven. Nevertheless, these comments do not contradict the fact that Hu's successful strategic bets appear to have strengthened his hand on Taiwan. PICCUTA