BEIJING-BASED G-5 CHIEFS OF MISSION ON TIBET, THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 001396 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR WILDER, HAENLE E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/14/2028 TAGS: PREL PGOV KOLY SOCI SENV CH FR GM JA UK SUBJECT: BEIJING-BASED G-5 CHIEFS OF MISSION ON TIBET, THE DALAI LAMA, AND HIGH LEVEL VISITORS Classified By: Ambassador Clark T. Randt, Jr. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) At the April 11 bi-weekly Beijing-based G-5 Chiefs of Mission gathering, French DCM Nicolas Chapuis noted that there is much confusion in Paris regarding Sarkozy's "conditions" or "elements" involved in his ultimate decision to attend or not attend the Beijing Olympics. President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao appear to have different positions on the Dalai Lama as expressed in their phone calls to other world leaders, UK Ambassador Ehrman noted. The Chinese Government's options for dealing with Tibet are being limited by the surge in Chinese nationalism, which is itself being fueled by the Government's own propaganda. Moderates in both China and Dharamsala appear to be under attack, according to Chapuis. (Note: The Ambassador has tasked the Political section to explore the implications of the Tibet issue for China's leadership.) End Summary. Participants -------------- ¶2. (C) German Ambassador Dr. Michael Schaefer hosted Japanese Ambassador Yuji MIYAMOTO, UK Ambassador William Ehrman, French DCM Nicholas Chapuis and the Ambassador April 11 for the bi-weekly G-5 gathering of Beijing-based Chiefs of Mission. Confusion in France: President's Olympic Attendance -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) French DCM Nicolas Chapuis reported that French President Nicolas Sarkozy, in a private conversation with Chinese President Hu Jintao, said that he would consider "three elements" in deciding whether to attend the Beijing Olympics: the cessation of violence in Tibet, unfettered access to Tibet and the resumption of dialogue with the Tibetan representatives. Following this conversation, French Secretary of the Interior Michele Alliot-Marie, in an SIPDIS interview with Le Monde, said that Sarkozy had outlined "three conditions," rather than "elements" for his attendance at the Olympics. This enraged Sarkozy, who ordered her to give another interview to retract her statement. During her subsequent interview, she claimed that Le Monde "misrepresented" her comments, which Le Monde then denied. Sarkozy then asked Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner to give an interview to repudiate the existence of "conditions." Kouchner, according to Chapuis, not only failed to repudiate Alliot-Marie's statement, but also inadvertently added a fourth condition: that the Chinese meet the Dalai Lama in Brussels. Sarkozy, infuriated, stated that he will "determine the conditions of our participation, depending on the opening of dialogue with the Dalai Lama" in a television interview April 8. He further noted that Chinese dialogue with the Dalai Lama can be public or secret, but must be "productive and concrete." Phone Calls On Tibet: Hu, Wen and Yang -------------- ¶4. (C) Premier Wen in his phone conversation with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown appears to have taken a stance different from that taken by President Hu during his March 26 phone call with President Bush, UK Ambassador Ehrman reported. Specifically, Wen said that he appreciates the Dalai Lama's non-violent approach as well as his statements that he does not oppose the Olympics. President Hu, however, according to the Chinese press, told President Bush that the Dalai Lama Clique had engaged in "serious violent criminal activity" during which "no government would sit idly by." Ambassador Ehrman noted that Hu has not addressed the Chinese public on the issue of Tibet since the outbreak of violence on March 14, and his only public statements on the matter come from Xinhua's reporting on the phone call with President Bush. Ambassador Ehrman also noted that in Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi's phone call with UK Foreign Minister Miliband, Yang stated that the Dalai Lama has never renounced a 1993 constitution drawn up by the government in exile in Dharamsala whose goal is an independent Tibet, and that the Dalai Lama has called for the removal of all PLA troops from Tibet. Moreover, according to FM Yang, when the Dalai Lama refers to "Tibet," he is referring to all traditionally ethnically Tibetan areas, including the Tibetan Autonomous Region as well as large parts of Gansu, Qinghai, Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces. A Split between Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao? -------------- ¶5. (C) Japanese Ambassador Miyamoto also noted the difference between the public statements of Hu and Wen, as well as apparent friction between Hu and former President Jiang Zemin. Wen had been invited to attend a Japanese Youth Celebration at the Great Hall of the People, but had declined, Ambassador Miyamoto reported. Unexpectedly, Hu Jintao announced that he would attend, and then arrived one hour before he was expected. He spent 16 minutes with the Japanese children while CCTV filmed him, and the resulting video clip was edited on the spot and then played repeatedly on the nightly news programs. Ambassador Miyamoto feels that this unusual attention reflects Hu's split with Jiang Zemin, who disliked the Japanese. (Note: Hu's attendance may also have been related to his upcoming visit to Japan in May.) Lately, pro-Jiang Zemin websites have been appearing, as have many websites connected with the New Left (Xin Zuo Pai). Movements Towards Dialogue with the Dalai Lama -------------- - ¶6. (C) Ambassador Miyamoto alleged that the Dalai Lama wrote a letter to President Hu March 19, stating that he is willing to come to Beijing to hold talks. The United Front Work Department (Tong Zhan Bu) received the letter, French DCM Chapuis added, and reportedly responded that his willingness to hold dialogue is a "positive gesture." Premier Wen Jiabao was quoted March 30 in Vientiane saying that "the channels are open" for dialogue with the Dalai Lama, Chapuis continued. On March 24, French President Sarkozy offered to mediate any dialogue between the two sides, Chapuis said. Ambassador Miyamoto noted that Japanese Prime Minister Fukuda made the same offer the previous week. Hu has been preparing a written response to Fukuda, but "factional infighting" has prevented him from finishing the letter, according to Ambassador Miyamoto. This puts Hu in a dangerous position, as his inability to achieve consensus on the letter is weakening his position within the Party leadership, Ambassador Miyamoto assessed. Odds and Ends on Tibet -------------- ¶7. (C) Hu has ordered an investigation into why Chinese security forces did not immediately crack down on protesters in Tibet on March 14, according to Chapuis. The issue has become the focus of party factional struggles, particularly because the Tibet issue also influences other issues, such as Xinjiang and Falun Gong, Chapuis continued. The United Front Work Department has been "in crisis mode" since the events in Tibet and has been reportedly holding talks with "moderates" in the Dalai Lama's entourage. However, the moderates are being marginalized and are "under attack" in Dharamsala, Chapuis alleged. Chinese moderates are facing similar problems: Southern Weekly writer Chang Ping was pursued online as a "traitor to the Han race" after publishing an article advocating a moderate stance on Tibet. The Organization Department of the Party has called for loyalty from all cadres in Tibetan areas and has issued a circular stipulating that loyalty will be specifically included in cadre evaluations. (Note: The Ambassador has tasked the Political section to explore the implications of the Tibet issue fQ China's leadership.) Nationalism is Limiting Central Government Options -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) Japanese Ambassador Miyamoto said that a Chinese friend with PLA contacts had expressed worry about rising Han nationalism. He further noted that the response to the problems in Tibet has been "old-school propaganda," which has misled the Chinese public and increased their agitation. This agitation, coupled with the increase in nationalism, is limiting the options of the Chinese Government. Of course, he added, public calls for dialogue with the Dalai Lama from foreign leaders only make such dialogue more difficult to initiate by Chinese leaders. French DCM Chapuis added that there is increased pressure for a tough response in Tibet from the Chinese public, while the international community is calling for restraint. Foreigners have also had to bear the brunt of a hostile Chinese public, according to Chapuis. Following the Paris leg of the Olympic Torch Run, the French Embassy has been receiving 50 threatening or angry phone calls a day; the French Consulate in Chengdu has been receiving upwards of 100 similar phone calls a day from Chinese citizens. UK High Level Visitors -------------- ¶9. (C) UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling will come to China on April 14 for the UK Economic Dialogue with Vice Premier Wang Qishan. He will be accompanied by Lord Mark Malloch-Brown, and the trip will cover both Beijing and Chongqing. The Dalai Lama will meet with UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown this month. Brown called Premier Wen in advance to inform him of the meeting, which "made a big difference to the Chinese." They expressed appreciation that Brown will not meet the Dalai Lama on government property, and that he has described the meeting merely as a "personal, religious" meeting. In early June, UK Secretary of State for Business John Hutton, Chief of Defense Staff Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup and Secretary of State for Health Alan Johnson will visit China. Japanese Visitors -------------- ¶10. (C) Deputy Foreign Minister Yabunaka will visit China April 14 to lay the groundwork for President Hu Jintao's visit to Japan. Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi will visit Japan April 17-20, in advance of Hu's visit. Liberal Democratic Party Secretary General Bunmei Ibuki and New Komeito Party Secretary Kazuo Kitagawa will visit China in the near future. Japanese Environmental Minister Ichiro Kamoshita will be coming to Beijing following the Boao Forum. German and French Visitors -------------- ¶11. (C) German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier will visit China June 13-15, and hopes to meet with Hu, Wen and Yang. German Minister of Economics and Technology Michael Glos will visit Beijing and Shanghai in May to commemorate 30 years of Sino-German cooperation in science and technology. In Chongqing May 9-17, the Germans will continue their "Sustainable Urbanization" program. The German Government cancelled their development dialogue, which had previously been scheduled for May. Former French President Jacques Chirac cancelled his visit to China for "personal reasons." Chapuis noted that his reasons truly were health related and are not connected to Tibet. RANDT