CHINESE ACADEMIC VIEWS ON A NORTHEAST ASIA PEACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 001170

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2033
TAGS: PREL PGOV KN CH
SUBJECT: CHINESE ACADEMIC VIEWS ON A NORTHEAST ASIA PEACE
AND SECURITY MECHANISM

Classified By: Deputy Political Section Chief Ben Moeling. Reasons 1.4
(b/d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Many Chinese academics view the eventual establishment
of a North East Asia Peace and Security Mechanism (NEAPSM) as
a "natural outgrowth" of the Six-Party Talks. While there is
no agreement among scholars on what a future NEAPSM will look
like, many believe that it will start with the Six Parties
and may later expand to include interested countries, such as
Mongolia. While one contact cited concern that North Korea
could lean towards the United States in a post-nuclear Korean
Peninsula environment, another said that China does not find
this scenario "scary." An informal survey of Chinese
scholars indicates wide support for continued U.S.
involvement in Northeast Asia. However, one academic
speculated that the United States is not truly committed to
establishing NEAPSM and that China should "forget it" because
such a security mechanism will be unreliable. End Summary.

NEAPSM Timing
--------------


2. (C) Many Chinese academics view the eventual establishment
of a North East Asia Peace and Security Mechanism (NEAPSM) as
a "natural outgrowth" of the Six-Party Talks, said China
Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR)
Professor Li Jun. The establishment of a new regional
architecture should be considered only after the resolution
of the North Korea nuclear issue, he urged. Secretary
General of the Institute of World Development (IWD) Bian
Xiaochun noted that while Chinese scholars have discussed the
possibility of NEAPSM for some time now, Chinese policymakers
only recently have begun to hold discussions on the issue.


3. (C) Separately, University of Shizuoka Professor Hajime
Izumi (a Japanese professor who regularly meets with Chinese
scholars on DPRK issues) said he believes Japan will need to
see "substantial progress" on abductees before Japan is
prepared to move forward on NEAPSM.

Looking for a NEAPSM Model
--------------


4. (C) China Academy of Social Science scholar Jin Xide said
Chinese academics envision three possible models for a future
NEAPSM: 1) the Organization for Security and Cooperation in
Europe (OSCE) model; 2) the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
model and 3) the Association of Southeast Asian Nations-plus
three model. China is of the "realistic view," Jin said,
that all kinds of existing models, as well as those without
precedent, could work in Asia. There is no need to pick just
one, he added. Professor Izumi said he believes the OSCE
offers the most appropriate model for Northeast Asia, because
of the organization's array of confidence building measures
amongst the parties, which Japan would like to see in
Northeast Asia. Separately, Counselor Tang Guocai of the
MFA,s Policy Planning Department told Poloff that China
prioritizes &consensus, noninterference, and respect for
sovereignty8 in regional architecture institutions, and
specifically cited the OSCE and the Organization of American
States as models that &probably would not work in Asia now.8


5. (C) At first, NEAPSM will likely include the Six Parties
and might later include interested countries, such as
Mongolia, said CICIR Professor Li. The benefits of NEAPSM
over mechanisms already in place, such as ARF, ASEAN and
APEC, are that it will cover a different geographic area and
incorporate regional "powers." According to IWD's Bian,
NEAPSM's format will depend on what "type" of a North Korea
results from the Six-Party process and how the DPRK views
NEAPSM.

Keeping China in the Game
--------------


6. (C) There is "a lot of concern" in China that a
post-nuclear Korean Peninsula environment could develop
without full Chinese participation, according to Wu Baiyi,
Deputy Director of the China Foundation for International and
Strategic Studies. While it is certainly possible that North
Korea could lean towards China, South Korea or even the
United States in the future, IWD's Bian said that China is
not overly concerned about this scenario. Foremost, China
wants a stable North Korea. A North Korea which is friendly
to the United States is "not scary" to China, said Bian.
China is a big country dealing with its own big country
problems and the DPRK is a small country which likely will
need to lean on a big power for support, Bian said.

BEIJING 00001170 002 OF 002



A Continued U.S. Role?
--------------


7. (C) According to China Academy of Social Science (CASS)
scholar Jin Xide, when Chinese scholars and officials analyze
China's relations with each of its Northeast Asian neighbors,
they tend to examine each relationship in the broader context
of overall Northeast Asia relations. On the other hand, Jin
said, when scholars and officials contemplate the long-term
future of Northeast Asia in general, the first relationship
they consider is that between China and the United States.
Chinese scholars, he explained, are generally of two schools
of thought: either they view U.S. alliances in the region
positively, or they see the U.S. presence as a reflection of
antiquated "Cold War thinking." Saying he is of the former
school, Jin believes the United States provides stability in
the region and prevents Japan from having to remilitarize out
of fear of Chinese military development. Jin said his
informal survey of Chinese scholars indicates wide support
for continued U.S. involvement in Northeast Asia.


8. (C) CICIR Professor Li said that China is "not worried" at
all about the normalization of U.S.-DPRK ties. Otherwise,
said Li, China would not have hosted the Six-Party Talks and
supported efforts to improve U.S-DPRK ties. China would like
to see North Korea's economy and its relationships with the
outside world improve, since the stability of the region is
ultimately in China's national interest, he added.

United States -- The Spoiler?
--------------


9. (C) The NEAPSM concept is certainly appealing, said
Beijing University Professor Zhu Feng. The security
mechanism could help coordinate countries' competing
interests including China's stability, the ROK's
rapprochement with North Korea and Japan's abductee issue.
However, establishing a NEAPSM is a "fantasy," Zhu contended.
Although Secretary Rice has expressed support, President
Bush and the Department of Defense have not shown interest in
NEAPSM. This indicates that it is not a priority for the
U.S. Government, Zhu speculated. China should "forget" such
a security mechanism because it will be unreliable, he
stated. The status quo is too beneficial to the Department
of Defense and NEAPSM will contradict current U.S. alliance
politics and may undermine present U.S. military superiority,
said Zhu.
PICCUTA